Model Chat And Moods

[The PIT]

Fantastic GFS run tonight, but best of all I ain't seen a mild ramper for ages!! Where are you guys?!?!?

See all that hot air coming up right at the end of the run well this will sweep North westward giving us the warmest spring ever.

More seriously lets get this northerly going first then see what happens. Remember the last attempt at the reformation of easterly never happened and this may go the same way.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

what do peeps think of ukmo 144?

Not sure its as good as gfs at the same timeframe?

[R.P. McMurphy]

See all that hot air coming up right at the end of the run well this will sweep North westward giving us the warmest spring ever.

More seriously lets get this northerly going first then see what happens. Remember the last attempt at the reformation of easterly never happened and this may go the same way.

Haha I love it pit! Your right though, even though this is a brilliant GFS run, it's not all set in stone, Over the past several years I have seen charts thrown up similar to this, everyone gets excited and it topples.... Slowly followed by mild air.. So hold our breath and hope the reload is on the cards. I am actually hoping for a NE'erly as Easterlys hardly deliver snow to my area due to the Pennines and strength.

[Ben_Cambs]

Hmmmm Winter is over??? I remember a post from a member suggesting that a few days ago.....

[weather eater]

what do peeps think of ukmo 144?

Not sure its as good as gfs at the same timeframe?

Nope not quite as good, but you would hardly expect every model to be identical at the 144hr mark. Still HD you could get worried that a new trend is emerging, your style is to look for negatives rather than positives, never very popular on the NW model thread but I guess it needs to be done if only for the sake of balance.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Amazing day been logged in all day, I can't believe those charts and if they all have the same trend or even downgraded slightly we are in for something truly unbelievable, I can't sleep tonight and keep pinching myself can this be real ? I also keep saying to myself the charts just have to be wrong in some way, but we must all be cautious and not get carried away as has been mentioned tonight but for now I'm just going to enjoy it because I don't think I will ever witness charts like that again in my lifetime. :crazy:

[swilliam]

GEM not as good this morning and if you want to see how it could all go wrong have a look at the NOGAPS.

[MR EXTREMES]

im sure someone posted lastnight the noaa thoughts and the ecm was less favoured correct me if i was wrong.

its good hear steves thoughts this morning,

with gp also iceberg bftp all posting there thoughts also more time is needed there seems to be rising confidence on a cold easterly.

its always been the case where upstream developments in the usa effects our outcome it seems we have been sharing the states weather over here in the uk,

with the jet being a big player, oh and ofcoarse in my very strong opion the solar cycle.

one thing i have noticed is how close the models outputs over the last 24 to 48hrs have been to each other,

i think this is always good sign because it means they all are picking up on the same kind of trend.

but ofcoarse the big worry is the finer detail,

and being in fi can get a lil frustrating but also exciting,

all i can say seeing them charts lastnight where truely magical,

one thing is certain is its not going to be blowtourch as we head into the start of febuary,

the alantic seems very very weak.

its also worth noting that infact the last couple of years its been like this,

with even alantic storms not being all that serious in strength but late 90s early 2000s they where very powerfull and a spolier for our winter along with the jet.

this is the reason why im maybe starting to lean towards the beasterly or cold winnning out until winters end perhapes seeing cold shots into easter,

truely stunning model watching with some exciting charts to dribble over.

[Spurry]

The models are looking brilliant at the moment (for cold weather)certainly as good as if not better than the january spell we experienced , however and correct me if i'm wrong it would only take a small change somewhere in the near future (Not FI)for everything that is forecast to come after it to change and the whole forecast to do a 180 and allow everything to come in from the w or sw, equally something could change which could even upgrade for something even colder (if thats possible for us, taking into account our geography)...i like the look of the models but i am certainly not counting my chickens yet!!! and to be honest if we got a warm sunny late winter early spring i wouldn't be too disappointed , as long as it isn't rain or anticyclonic gloom then i'll be happy.

It's charts like today's that bring-out my IMBYist tendency...A fair portion of Scottyland could be in for a bit of a pasting??

As for the Easterly? I guess we'll have to wait and see...

Neither a northerly or an easterly offers a great deal IMBY

[MR EXTREMES]

It's charts like today's that bring-out my IMBYist tendency...A fair portion of Scottyland could be in for a bit of a pasting??

As for the Easterly? I guess we'll have to wait and see...

suits you then pete:drinks:.

i dont care any cold will do me dry even slightly below just hope feb cet stay below.

i dont think i can handle anymore excitement.

[John London]

My first post in here after watching the General Model Output Discussion for some weeks.

It does seem to me that one or two members seem to see an Easterly coming our way almost every week.

This Easterly is always in F1 at the start of the week, and is back at F1 at the end of the week.

If the models aren't showing an Easterly then the seagulls are. If the seagull theory doesn't work out another theory is pulled out of the hat.

By the law of probability the Easterly forecasters must eventually get it right. They will then be seen as Gods of the Weather by the mere mortals on here.

Bring on the Easterly.

[cooling climate]

mmm not a good morning perhapes we might have got excited over nothing lastnight.

the models are dreadfull this morning could it get any worse though it could to be honest.

but saying this its only 1 run.

Dear oh dear what a silly post to make. you have looked at the models I take it.

Try not to overreact to a couple of dodgy operational runs.

Plenty of snow around this weekend before the bitter cold hits next week.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Dear oh dear what a silly post to make. you have looked at the models I take it.

Try not to overreact to a couple of dodgy operational runs.

Plenty of snow around this weekend before the bitter cold hits next week.

to be fair CC thats far from nailed on.Its not just a couple of dodgy ops at all.ecm/ukmo AND gfs have backtracked this morning,actually ukmo didnt look great at 144h to me last night.

it could still happen but you could be setting up for a big fall if thats your position.

[locneverstop]

Dear oh dear what a silly post to make. you have looked at the models I take it.

Try not to overreact to a couple of dodgy operational runs.

Plenty of snow around this weekend before the bitter cold hits next week.

Quite agree. I've been lurking here some time now, and I seem to remember people always dismissing the 06Z as it was the worst of the runs earlier this Winter.

The truth of that theory is up for debate, but I still think we should hold off the panic buttons until the ongoing trend is for mild.

[cooling climate]

to be fair CC thats far from nailed on.Its not just a couple of dodgy ops at all.ecm/ukmo AND gfs have backtracked this morning,actually ukmo didnt look great at 144h to me last night.

it could still happen but you could be setting up for a big fall if thats your position.

I honestly do not think I will be, but if I am wrong I will gladly eat humble pie and put it down to

a lesson learned.

As for the post I commented on I can see no reason for such a OTT post as Teits put it.

Edited January 27, 2010 by cooling climate

[Nick L]

mmm not a good morning perhapes we might have got excited over nothing lastnight.

the models are dreadfull this morning could it get any worse though it could to be honest.

but saying this its only 1 run.

Melodramatic or what? It could get far worse, and posts like this are not going to help newer members understand the charts at all. Go and have a look at the archives for real bad winter charts, just remind yourself of the mild rubbish we had to face in 06/07 and 07/08. We would have been wetting ourselves with excitement with a GFS run like this back then.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I honestly do not think I will be, but if I am wrong I will gladly eat humble pie and put it down to

a lesson learned.

As for the post I commented on I can see not reason for such a OTT post as Teits put it.

thats fair enough.

lets hope the MMW will assist us down the line.

[Totoro]

You could also argue that the UKMO is out of range, ECM was much milder than the mean at the crucial timeframe and the GFS continues to show an E,ly!

Obviously nothing is nailed on at this stage. What we have to remember is a small synoptic change with regards to the positioning of the block to our NE could make the difference between -5C upper temps and -15C. Infact when I viewing these models at the moment I don't even bother looking at the upper temps!

What staggers me is some never seem to learn. Remember back in Dec when the ECM had a wobble and according to some members the cold spell wouldn't happen? At the moment nobody can say the E,ly is nailed but on the otherhand we can't say the E,ly has gone AWOL. The theme of blocking continues in this mornings output and that for the moment is all we should worry about.

That gets my award for most sensible post of the day.

Anything beyond 72 to 96 hours is FI as far as I'm concerned and best taken with a lorry load of salt.

[Bobby]

Those who were getting carried away by last night's runs have been brought back down to Earth with a bump this morning, as expected. Could go either way still I think... I do think that there will be an easterly of some kind as we head into February though.

[snowmadchrisuk]

In the short term , Friday looks more like it might be Snow again this morning . Although the Met Office have dismissed this idea.

[SnowBallz]

Those who were getting carried away by last night's runs have been brought back down to Earth with a bump this morning, as expected. Could go either way still I think... I do think that there will be an easterly of some kind as we head into February though.

I can't understand why you see celebratory smileys cropping up when people reference the very outer ranges of the GFS models, almost as if it's nailed-on to verify? It's almost like they enjoy the wrist-slitting - much like why a gambler gambles. Also, amuses me to see premature back-slapping. If 'epic' runs verify, then I'd be the first to shake a few peoples' hands, but there's no way I'm gonna congratulate someone just because one model run signals what they've suggested...in 7+ days time. No chance.

What I've noticed over the last few days (and countless runs now) is that yes we're trending towards a bit of a cold spell again. But am I going to go OTT in either direction, based on the output of one run? Hell no! I might be relatively new to model watching, but what I've quickly learnt is that it's just not worth taking notice of models suggesting the glaciers heading South again. Until proven otherwise, consider it a quirk - and concentrate on what the overall trend is. That's what I do, and it's saved me from many a smashed keyboard :lol:

I enjoy this thread, but do think the peaks and troughs tend to make it a bit of a 'murder mystery' at times. We all know that +300 is just a complete waste of time, so why do people still continue to post charts out in that range?? Baffles me, it really does.

No doubt this post will be moved/deleted - and this thread will continue unabated. C'est la vie.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Have to say that more than half of me is very uncomfortable with the long range ensemble mean guidance on offer today.

For sure, GFS and GEM ensemble means are very bullish about a significant blocking structure centred over norther Siberia / Barents Sea to migrate eastwards towards Greenland.

Day 10 ensemble mean height anomalies depict about as strong a positive height anomaly as you could get at that range:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zGGEMEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

For days 11-15, again solid cross model ensemble mean guidance:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zCMCENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

This may well be related to modelling of downwelling zonal wind anomalies from the jump in stratospheric temperatures and disruption of the polar vortex going on.

However, the Global Wind Oscillation composites, which are my main confidence-weakener, depict a likely evolution of the Scandinavina trough being more resiliant than modelled (this discussed several days ago and still there t120-144) towards a mean mid Atlantic ridge. Phase space composites for the more likely evolutions all suggest more energy going poleward than the model suites are programming.

Whether the evolution of blocking highs to the north-east are enough to shunt the jet equatorward is open to doubt given the unreliability of the modelling of the polar field. Therefore, some question marks for me beyond t168 and I would not be suprised to see the persistence of the core high pressure being west and north-west of the UK. That's still likely to deliver a cold 10-14 days but potentially not as severe as some model solutions of late.

A lot will depend here on how the developing ridge over the Arctic behaves and whether stratospheric propagation takes place within the medium to longer time frames.

Much respect for sticking to your guns over this one GP. I shall be following developments with interest :lol:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

well im not throwing in the towel but those ens are nowhere near as good as the earlier ones.

worse still the northerly which was progged for fri isnt going to be cold enough foe snow! :lol:

sat and sun look cold enough for snow but any precip looks very sparce.

I was hoping for much better after 12zecm last night so i cant help but be disappointed .

[Thundery wintry showers]

Re. Friday's possible "snow":

Nothing in the models suggests this. NAE, GFS suggest a mainly rain event.

I agree with Kevin here. However the showers following on behind the main rain belt should be of snow.

Fantastic GFS run tonight, but best of all I ain't seen a mild ramper for ages!! Where are you guys?!?!?

It will be mild. I@Mild.

(ducks)

[Methuselah]

You'd think different if you knew who my contact was! :lol: Like I said, don't ask me why its done like this.

Secret contact revealed!! You'll like this Dave....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/George_Segal_in_Lost_Command.jpg