Model Chat And Moods

[NorthantsSnow]

UKMO drops the easterly. It's over.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Thats it folks,game set and match to the Atlantic.Im away for a while i need to get a life and stop chasing

these Easterlies that never materialize.

I know its been a great winter but im thinking of summer now.I just hope we dont get flooding next week as the

Atlantic is coming back with a vegence.

Maybe the chance of a transient snow event tomorrow up north,after that its wind and rain.

[NorthernRab]

Could we all put our toys back in the pram and start discussing the models like adults please? "That's it, it's over, I'm leaving" style posts are just a waste of space.

[locneverstop]

Could we all put our toys back in the pram and start discussing the models like adults please? "That's it, it's over, I'm leaving" style posts are just a waste of space.

I don't post on here much due to general lack of knowledge but I agree!

the models swing like pendulums all the time, and I'm surprised people on here aren't fatigued from the constant mood swings!

From what little I know, it seems to me that although SW weather seems to be catching on, is it really any different to an E'ly being picked up? These atlantic systems could get dropped like a hot potato in three days time.

[robnor1]

Spring is on its way each day is getting longer and the sun is getting higher in the sky you can't beat it so join it Winter is over folks in the South of England.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I may not particularly want it, but a spell of mild moist weather, bound to be greeted with absolute glee by the tabloids, news and TV/radio forecasts, is on the cards for about a week or so, IMHO. There will be plenty of blocking about but in the right places to bring a mild SW flow to Britain, like in January 1969.

It isn't 100% nailed on but I'd give 90% chance that we won't get this easterly.

However it would be wrong to write off the rest of February as far as cold and snow are concerned. Charts regularly show a southerly tracking jet in a week's time with high pressure over Greenland. Towards midmonth we may well see a temporary lull in the Atlantic allowing a cold shot in from the N or NE.

Winter is over in the South of England?? Some parts saw snow stick around all day on the 6th April 2008! East Anglia also picked up frequent snow cover during the Easter northerly of the same year.

[Mark Bayley]

There is a lot of blocking around, unfortuantly its in the wrong place for us. The impacts of the stratospheric warming should be felt toawrds the start of March i would have thought. It wouldn't take much to get anther shot of cold, even if its only brief! A spell of milder weather is certain. Its how long it lasts!

[nick sussex]

Could we all put our toys back in the pram and start discussing the models like adults please? "That's it, it's over, I'm leaving" style posts are just a waste of space.

I can understand your post but I think it's inevitable that people will be disappointed at the current model rollercoaster deraling before the cold stop!

What keeps this site busy is also what can sometimes lead to toys out of prams, many of the members have a passionate love of the cold and snow, its difficult to separate that out sometimes especially with the model chaos of the last week.

[Winter Monsoon]

So the models have flipped again?? And we have learnt what?

Still peeps are posting +144 charts when we know +96 isnt that reliable either. And 1st sign of south westerlies at +144 and its Game set and Match....and thats for deffinate is it. So the models wont switch back now.....for sure?

Im not bothering beyong 72hrs wots the point. I cant see the logic in these posts +144 is way off in never never land and yet its seems to be set in stone when its atlantic based but when its showing the usual synoptic for a Febuary its FI and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

[cooling climate]

With the way the models have behaved the last few days I think it would be rather

prudent to wait another 24 hours or so to see if the models offer some consistency

to what they are showing this evening.

I'm still of the belief this is not over yet.

[Mark Bayley]

I can understand your post but I think it's inevitable that people will be disappointed at the current model rollercoaster deraling before the cold stop!

What keeps this site busy is also what can sometimes lead to toys out of prams, many of the members have a passionate love of the cold and snow, its difficult to separate that out sometimes especially with the model chaos of the last week.

I think some are getting there hopes more due to how different this winter has already been. Certainly been my best winter! Im sure there will be further shots of cold as we head through the rest of winter and into spring, just not as severe as we have seen

[Jayces]

So the models have flipped again?? And we have learnt what?

Still peeps are posting +144 charts when we know +96 isnt that reliable either. And 1st sign of south westerlies at +144 and its Game set and Match....and thats for deffinate is it. So the models wont switch back now.....for sure?

Im not bothering beyong 72hrs wots the point. I cant see the logic in these posts +144 is way off in never never land and yet its seems to be set in stone when its atlantic based but when its showing the usual synoptic for a Febuary its FI and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

It's fun to see people's reactions on here, having watched the last week from the Easterly being on/off/on/off/on and now off again.

I know zip about model watching, I just come here for the entertainment.

I do know though that it would seem that anything beyond 24 hours it seems isn't ever cast in stone unless signals are very very clear and all models agree on it.

At the moment there are too many variables, my advice, come back on the 7th to see what the models say the weather is going to do on the 8th.

[Winter Monsoon]

Ok so my post gets Moved But Jh's one liner not model related post stays??? Hmm

[Tom D]

At the moment anything could still happen beyond the t+72 charts on both the GFS and UKMO. I think there will be a clear split in the GEFS when they come out.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-72.png?12 GFS

UKMO

The GEM/GFS ops also show that despite the mild or very mild interlude, cold is still possible afterwards.

[aspire27]

Dont worry guys and girls, only two more weeks of model watching then this winter is over. Soon you will be out of your misery.

I say two weeks because in two the models will be showing the end of Feb which = winter is practically over.

Im really looking forward to the METO long range forecast for a complete back track on any cold over the next day or so.

The magic day of Feb 8th is looking very mild now.

GP has said all along a mild Feb....looks like he could be right.

Mind you, the faxes tonight will be interesting too, because last night they looked different to the model output

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Could we all put our toys back in the pram and start discussing the models like adults please? "That's it, it's over, I'm leaving" style posts are just a waste of space.

I agree - getting a grip might be a good idea!

No-one knows what the weekend is going to be like, never mind next week. Many of us will be disappointed if it doesn't all work out as we want, but life goes on - the weather does what it does regardless what we all think. Having a roof over our heads and controlling life in general is going to keep us well and comfortable - 2 foot of snow might be great to look at and enjoy but it is not going to be a life changer or pay the way for the future.

Posts of melodrama, or for eg with wallbash smilies etc or anything else are not going to change the model outlook.

[Weathizard]

I'm only a novice but are people not getting slightly carried away here, we have already seen that the output seems to be changing by the hour, so surely it could all change again on tomorrows models and then we are back to square one? The outputs today do not surprise me, even having seen yesterdays one it just follows the same pattern they have taken in the past few weeks, chopping and changing constantly.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Can anyone remember this very-nearly northerly which delivered snowfalls to NE Scotland and not much else?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950208.gif

Pretty impressive synoptics, but they got killed off a few days later:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950211.gif

...and then in came the Atlantic:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950214.gif

So many people would have thought, "that's it, winter's over".

And then this came:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif

I doubt we'll have to wait until the 2nd March this time around for our next wintry spell. The point is many people are getting too worked up over individual runs- and perhaps letting personal preferences play too large a role in assessing the model outputs, when maybe a more rounded approach might give better results as far as discussion is concerned.

[MR EXTREMES]

to be honest i think all models are slowly coming round to the idear the azores build and shortwave thats causing the problems has been in the outputs for days.

its not a case of when the milder air gets here its when its a cert now and im 100% positive the ecm wont think any different and is likely to follow the trend set by other models.

each and every model looks about right to me there is nothing at all odd about them,

so as gutting as it is for the coldies its over.

and im glad because honestly i wanted them to come up with something or other and they have both gfs ukmo and the ecm this morning.

what a rollercoaster ride im still confident that latter part of feb early march could give us a winter farewell.

[SP1986]

The main things is to enjoy this model watching it really is fascinating for what it is. During our time on Net-weather we've seen some interest battles but none have anywhere near as thrilling and full of suspense as this one!

[SP1986]

what a rollercoaster ride im still confident that latter part of feb early march could give us a winter farewell.

To be fair I suspect this to be near to the mark it would be very strange if we did not see a cold snap/spell before the end of winter, although I'm placing my bets on a northerly one like the one we've just had

[MR EXTREMES]

To be fair I suspect this to be near to the mark it would be very strange if we did not see a cold snap/spell before the end of winter, although I'm placing my bets on a northerly one like the one we've just had

yep i agree they tend to happen in late winter spring i even remember snow falling in april remember that one awsome that was ok it only lasted about 3 hours but it was a nice suprise lol.

[snowmackem]

So that's it is it?

Game over?

I don't think so, we had the starter before Christmas, the main course in January and I don't know about you, I'm still waiting for my pudding. My mum used to say "the longer you wait the better it'll taste". Well I don't mind waiting, though not too long.

Although the current runs are showing downgrades for coldies, like me, there is enough high pressure around the NH still and it is just having a reshuffle, it wants to let a bit of Atlantic in, to give itself a breather. Patience is a virtue with weather-watching,"winter" may be back, it may not, I don't believe for one second that after this week that's it. I think the models have def picked up a new signal from some recently-fed data and are trying to do something with it, I just think it is wrong. Easterly back on from the weekend, just watch. Failing that, a loveerrrlllyy Northerly screamer.

Anyway, we've got tomorrow to look forward to yet, could be fun for some.

[NorthantsSnow]

Just waiting for the ECM to make it 3/3 then I'm taking a nice long break from model watching.

At least tomorrow will produce some snow for the northern half of Britain at least before the mild muck takes over. I think somewhere in N England could see 3 inches.

[Bobby]

For those down at the current charts, it could be a lot worse. This is the kind of chart that has dominated our winter model watching in recent years:

At least there's potential in our current set up, even the worst model runs. Most of the time in recent winters there has been no potential, as is shown in this chart.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Barb-