Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[loopydreamer]

well.... the E'ly breeze has totally dried the dampness on the ground in the last hour! so very dry here atm! wish i knew the dew point and temp but my gage has broken so im off to investigate further!

Early days yet mate.

A couple of things I will say is the BBC suggest the precip will reach the N Pennines. Personally I cannot see this happening. Also when you look at the Met O radar the blues will only give rain, however the greens/yellows are what we need. I still maintain that come late afternoon/evening/overnight it will become very interesting over the Midlands.

totally agree . we need to give it a bit more time!

[andy_leics22]

Early days yet mate.

A couple of things I will say is the BBC suggest the precip will reach the N Pennines. Personally I cannot see this happening. Also when you look at the Met O radar the blues will only give rain, however the greens/yellows are what we need. I still maintain that come late afternoon/evening/overnight it will become very interesting over the Midlands.

I agree things could get interesting in the heavier precip, just hope that some heavy precip sticks around for a while and turns conditions into a white out :lol:

The most interesting time IMO for Warwickshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Northants is between 1pm-12am.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Coorrr,, they build em ard in Worcestershire don't they

SB1... I would love some snow here in Leicester, I don't get how we would see some and you wouldn't though, you are closer to the colder air than we are :lol:

Hi Andy - I would go with heavier ppn probably. I was a little surprised myself, but both t'internet and TV forecasts suggest this.

[TEITS]

I agree things could get interesting in the heavier precip, just hope that some heavy precip sticks around for a while and turns conditions into a white out

The most interesting time IMO for Warwickshire, Peterborough, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Northants is between 1pm-12am.

Thats better. :lol:

Seriously though im not expecting much here in Peterborough although remember Northants is only 10miles to my W.

[Costa Del Fal]

Just a damp ground here. Looks like fun should begin soon.:lol:

[loopydreamer]

atm temp 2.7

dew point 1.8

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thats better. :lol:

Seriously though im not expecting much here in Peterborough although remember Northants is only 10miles to my W.

Indeed Dave, although I wouldnt expect anything either as I would see the biggest risk is around 30-40 miles to your West. I've seen how much shorter differences can make the difference.

Anyway...haven't you still got some on the ground? Stamford still had sporadic snow patches on the ground 2 days a go.

Oh and Andy - I forgot about Notts as well.

[azores92]

it looks as if later this afternoon is the best time to start searching around for possible snowfall imo. the beeb show the snow getting almost stuck across the central midlands later this afternoon and on into this evening, continuing for a fair few hours also.

[andy_leics22]

I'm off to bed for a few hours guys, i'll catch up with you later :lol:

[camperstron]

In birmingham this morning it's bitterly cold with an easterly wind. It was foggy last night @ midnightish, where I live there is still some ice on the ground from that last cold spell.

I so hope that we get a pasting, I keep promising my husband snow and he's losing faith in me!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

it looks as if later this afternoon is the best time to start searching around for possible snowfall imo. the beeb show the snow getting almost stuck across the central midlands later this afternoon and on into this evening, continuing for a fair few hours also.

Indeed-i watched this mornings Edition of Midlands today and it had snow over us from about 3pm today until about 6am tomorrow morning. :blink:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Indeed-i watched this mornings Edition of Midlands today and it had snow over us from about 3pm today until about 6am tomorrow morning. :blink:

sounds good, but what about as far north as me? temps way too high here its 2.2C

[Serendipity]

Interesting how people are talking about how cold it is - we have a barmy temp of 3 and a dp of 1.4 so anyone saying Wsarks will do well is living in cloud cuckoo land I think.

I was very optimistic yesterday but feel now I am in for another let down

[we_want_snow]

Rain glorious rain

[Costa Del Fal]

sounds good, but what about as far north as me? temps way too high here its 2.2C

Yes you should see some snow later this evening i think.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Rain glorious rain

[/quo

temps way too high for snow, cant really see them dropping, cold air is miles north in scotland

[TEITS]

Interesting how people are talking about how cold it is - we have a barmy temp of 3 and a dp of 1.4 so anyone saying Wsarks will do well is living in cloud cuckoo land I think.

I was very optimistic yesterday but feel now I am in for another let down

That was exactly the same conditions in reading before xmas and look what happened to them. If anything I think the temps were even higher.

If a band of moderate/heavy rain comes into this region and is prolonged then the temps will gradually drop. So it may start off as rain but very slowly you could see this turn to snow.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interesting how people are talking about how cold it is - we have a barmy temp of 3 and a dp of 1.4 so anyone saying Wsarks will do well is living in cloud cuckoo land I think.

I was very optimistic yesterday but feel now I am in for another let down

Conditions will become more favourable, however, as I said yesterday, this is not a text book snow event regarding temps, H500 and 850hpa.

[loopydreamer]

okay.... can someone here who knows their stuff tell me that if a temperature is around 2.5, what does the dew point temp have to be for it to fall as snow?

[Costa Del Fal]

okay.... can someone here who knows their stuff tell me that if a temperature is around 2.5, what does the dew point temp have to be for it to fall as snow?

It needs to be below 0c really.

Conditions will be more favourable later.

[stewfox]

Early days yet mate.

A couple of things I will say is the BBC suggest the precip will reach the N Pennines. Personally I cannot see this happening. Also when you look at the Met O radar the blues will only give rain, however the greens/yellows are what we need. I still maintain that come late afternoon/evening/overnight it will become very interesting over the Midlands.

I think this might be one of those trips to Brill Hill type things this evening, 6 miles away 600ft.

understood it to be marginal but my location in North Oxfordshire has a slight down grade with less chance of snow at lower levels.

We have had no snow on the ground since xmas eve but still surprised how much snow is still on the ground from outskirts of Reading to High Wycombe.

Although in Wales forecast some temps to drop by 0.5c in next 2/3 hrs so who knows.

lts all now casting.

Df rain here in reading (light)

[Fozfoster]

Interesting how people are talking about how cold it is - we have a barmy temp of 3 and a dp of 1.4 so anyone saying Wsarks will do well is living in cloud cuckoo land I think.

I was very optimistic yesterday but feel now I am in for another let down

REMEMBER.... the glass half full!! sleet turning to snow.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

You would preferably need 0oC for snow to fall and remain on the ground, but really this is very tight stuff.

I remember, I think either a November or Feb about 5 years ago, was forecast as rain for where I lived (South Derbys.), but fell as snow.

Just had a quick look at the 00z ensembles for the GEFS, and the Op run for Derbys, Leics, Staffs and Warks is always around the -5oC on the 850's. All other members for these regions are above.

If it snows for the majority of this ppn, then I think the op run has done very well.

Will be interesting to see if the 06z verifies the 00z, or if it follows the other members.

[A.J]

sounds good, but what about as far north as me? temps way too high here its 2.2C

are you refering to your dew-point reading Mark ??(which is high in itself....my dew-point is 0.6C) or air temp?....An air temp of 2.2C is most definitely not 'way too high' for snow

[loopydreamer]

It needs to be below 0c really.

Conditions will be more favourable later.

okay thanks blizzards! and good luck mate!