South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[TimMB]

I can garantee the SW will miss it, well I can't, but it just hasn't been our luck this year (so far).

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

geeez im supposed to be revising but this has got me wayy to excited lol!

[snowking]

Haha i know exactly what you mean, but when a run like this appears its very difficult not to

If it was the GFS on its own then i'd be more subdued, but with the hi-res NAE now backing it too, things are looking up

Though 36 hours is a huge amount of time for things to change

Met Office warnings out

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

SK

[BristolBlizzard]

Update from the metoffice

South West England:

Bath + NE Somerset

Bournemouth

Bristol

Devon

Dorset

Gloucestershire

N Somerset

Poole

S Gloucestershire

Somerset

Swindon

Wiltshire

Heavy Snow Wed 6 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of southern England and east Wales.

There is a potential for a period of heavy snow during Wednesday morning with locally large accumulations. The location of the heavy snow is uncertain and will be kept under review.

Issued at: 1553 Mon 4 Jan

[BristolBlizzard]

I can garantee the SW will miss it, well I can't, but it just hasn't been our luck this year (so far).

We got lucky from that unexpected Bristol Channel snow on 20th Dec.

But yeah probably best not to get excited but thats pretty much impossible.

[Wilxy]

Omg where has this come from i thought SW would miss out on any snow this week?

Edit. Its been foggy and frosty all day looks like a winter wonderland with everything white.

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[TimMB]

We got lucky from that unexpected Bristol Channel snow on 20th Dec.

But yeah probably best not to get excited but thats pretty much impossible.

True, was a freak 1 dayer, maybe it'll happen again!

[Bethany C]

geeez im supposed to be revising but this has got me wayy to excited lol!

Same here! Model watching and seeing the banter on here is just far more amusing than biological pschology!

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Temp already down to -1.7C, looking like another bone-chiller

[twister2005]

Evening all, been first day back at work, Yawn! but was surprised here in cheltenham we had SNOW this morning very light but covered everything, when we going to see more

[Steve_De4]

Oh lordy, when am I ever going to get that journey from Westbury to Telford done? Tuesday - icy. Weds - Foot of snow. Tomorrow looks like the best prospect, assuming I can get out of the side streets onto a main road. Hmm.

[Bethany C]

Even though the MetO has upped their warnings to the south west they are still showing just sleet for tommorrow and sunny for the rest of the week in bristol. Grrrr. Metcheck and Netweather have an optimistic streak but BBC and MetO don't. Lets see who's right!

[Evo]

I don't think many of us that have been watching over the last couple of days will be surprised at the latest snow threat showing up. Both GFS and NAE are keen to close off the flow around the Western edge of the front. I've been pondering since the weekend what the driving factor for this is. I think it's a combination of things. There is jet forcing from a jet streak to the west - placing the western edge of the front on the difluent left exit - this favours cyclogenesis. Additionally the cold air moving out south over the warm channel water causes enhanced convection - i.e. uplift.

In any event, whether this actually happens or not is another thing. It's certainly something the GFS has been keen on in an on-and-off fashion for some time.

It could enable significant snowfall. However, massive emphasis is on *could*...

[twister2005]

This Evening and Tonight:

After a clear, frosty evening it will become cloudy, with some outbreaks of rain sleet or snow developing overnight. The rain and sleet will be on and near the coast, with mostly snow inland. Minimum temperature -4 °C.

[dogs32]

If Im reading things correctly the S/Midlands is in for the biggest dumping

[Wilxy]

Evening all, been first day back at work, Yawn! but was surprised here in cheltenham we had SNOW this morning very light but covered everything, when we going to see more

Same but it was also foggy at the time maybe thats why in a matter or a few miles its become white on everything when i left home for college when i arrived it was blue sunshine not as much frost then when i come back from college i come back to freezing fog and hard frost. Must be very localised.

[Lynxus]

-2.1 here at the moment,

Can see cloud to the North. ( probably fog moving in? )

[Evening thunder]

Well what a nice surprise to get home and see the Latest GFS and the MetO's NAE model is now showing for Wednesday, and that they have issued an advisory!

Not only that but they both have pepped up tomorrows front a bit too.

BANK!

Max today 2.1c Temp here now -0.7c and dropping very quickly, less than 10 minutes ago it was above freezing!

[jethro]

Anyone seen Ian recently?

Calling Ian, come in please, your time is up, we NEED you. Is the projected snow la la land or not?

[BristolBlizzard]

like alot say snow fall can come right out the blue .. be nice to see what ians views are before im ramping away

[Wilxy]

Im very confused on whats changed this morning no snow forecast now there is and metoffice got us under warning for ice and snow.

[twister2005]

didnt realise at first but was very light and very foggy at the time, but nice to see, the garden looked like a winter wonderland

-2.6c here

Edited January 4, 2010 by twister2005

[snowking]

Probably wise to point out two things people have missed too:

1) The front tomorrow from the north is delayed, BUT never quite actually leaves us due to it being slow moving before being pepped up and forced northwards again by the channel low - could be looking at a long period of falling snow in some areas

2) Some rather strong winds associated with the channel low too on the northern flank - potential IF IT OCCURS for some blizzard conditions

Very exciting stuff - looks as though my essays will be put back

SK

[Lynxus]

Anyone seen Ian recently?

Calling Ian, come in please, your time is up, we NEED you. Is the projected snow la la land or not?

Lol,

I would expect Ian will be talking to his BBC co workers with regards to the latest output.

It is looking very good currently.

Lets hope its not just a blip.

Temp is falling rapidly.

Now its -2.3 ( down .2 in 30 mins )