South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[kaz]

temps dropped really quickly when the sun went down -3 already here and still dropping, DP at 0, if DP dosent rise anymore then we should be looking at it falling as snow.. like i said before we had ground temps of -3 but DP +1 so thefore we had rain. What ever happends and what ever falls out of the sky it will cover everything in Ice. Im out all night so will be taking blankets and a thermos with me as no matter what its gunner be cold.

kaz x

[Paul T]

MY WORTH

Well, consistency prevails. This has been forecast for the last 4 days, so an upset/massive downgrade should not be on the cards, and confidence of a 'snow' event should now be considered likely. (yes, really - 'aspire27')

Focusing on Tuesday only;

RISKS:

The -5 upper 850 temps come perilously close to the SW. Now this is good and bad. The closer the -5 comes to the south west, the greater the precipitation in theory, due to warmer/moister temps and conventions out to our west, however, we dont want it to push any further, as warmer than -5 uppers put this into a marginal event; However, we are well and truely within the 528DAM line. Within this area, it is almost odds on (usually) to see snow at this time of year. (see -5 UPPERS TRYING TO TOUCH SW) (see HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE -5 UPPERS)

Precipition: There will be precipitation for all of the SW at some point, I think thts pretty evident, however it could range from a dusting of snow, to 10cm.

This is dependant, initially, on the front approaching from the north to hit early in the early morning cold (which also provides cloud cover, therefore helping prevent the usual warming from the sun, as seen today, and therefore keeping the daytime max temps low - every little helps!) bringing with it temps that are as close to freezing as possible. I would argue that Northerly facing coasts could see sleet/rain.

The change from 6Z to 12Z was pretty massive in the short term and this can easily change again, however, other models are running with this increase in precipitation, so it would not appear to be a blip by the GFS.

This is a nowcast situation if ever you have seen one, however, i do believe that the models @ 9.45 tonight will have a pretty accurate and definate answer on if, where and how much.

We are currently within an air mass of -7 850 uppers, and seeing some seriously favorable temps. Every Degree lower helps at this stage.

Wednesday could Dwarf Tuesday, temps will be lower and precipitation almost certain to fall as snow, to early to tell, tomorrow mid-day charts will start revealing the answer.

Paul

[SteveB]

Please please be true, 15-20cm, it's the stuff dreams are made off.

Ice day here today with a max of -0.1c, currently -1.8c

[03jtrickey]

We are getting some very different temperature readings from one another today

Latest ive got from staverton is -3.3c

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/03633.html?MR=1

DP -6c

SK

Sounds about right,

I think it's possibly the urban heat island here making it warmer, Staverton is pretty rural so the temps will drop more quickly + more freezing fog. A couple of days ago mine and Dogs32's temps were within 0.1C, he isn't too far away - whereas the Staverton/Gloucester temps were quite different. Do you have your own weather station? Could be a fault with my sensor, if you have a personal reading I would be interested to compare.

[Paul T]

Its even -0.8 oC in Plymouth...

[chapmanslade]

what chance has yeovil got of getting some snow tomorrow and wednesday alot or very little ian?

Come on - Ian is a busy man at a busy time and he answers your question about 4 posts above.

Please please be true, 15-20cm, it's the stuff dreams are made off.

Ice day here today with a max of -0.1c, currently -1.8c

Mmmm.. not sure my dreams are aligned with yours - You obviously don't work outside like I do.

Significant Ice day here too with a max of -1.7C, already down to -3.5C at a reasonable altitude. 3C difference this morning as I drove down to Frome (-6C here, -9C in Frome)

I posted earlier about the roads - salt / grit may well be outside it's working range because of the very low temperatures giving surface temps of maybe -15C. Do expect lots of ice on all roads even if the snow / sleet is light.

[kumquat]

Thanks for the informative post Paul T. And Bristleboy, I'm being as cagey as you at the moment but almost cannot contain myself lol. Like you said things can change right up to the last minute - but I'm getting a little excited I must say!

[snowking]

Sounds about right,

I think it's possibly the urban heat island here making it warmer, Staverton is pretty rural so the temps will drop more quickly + more freezing fog. A couple of days ago mine and Dogs32's temps were within 0.1C, he isn't too far away - whereas the Staverton/Gloucester temps were quite different. Do you have your own weather station? Could be a fault with my sensor, if you have a personal reading I would be interested to compare.

Unfortunately no, there was a little accident last week with some dropping and breaking - whoops

Might pop down to maplins in the morning before the snow sets in and see what theyve got on sale

SK

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I'm awaiting Ian's next post with baited breath!

[SteveB]

OMG, somebody pick me up of the floor. Did you just see the forecast on BBC. 20-30cm tomorrow/Wednesday

[Somerset Squall]

Dare I get excited? Not just yet. I remember the let downs of the past (Feb 2009 obviously was a very different story!).

Temp got down to -7.7C last night, and reached -0.5C today. Now already down to -5.3C!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

-6.2C which is getting nearly as low as the -7c the car was saying this morning!

Quite cold then. DP is also down at -8.3C

[dogs32]

cant believe hows this as changed for us

and bad for the elderly

or am I wrong..sorry been working,but I take it things are looking like alot of snow

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[Jayfromcardiff]

cant believe hows this as changed for us

and basd for the elderly

or am I wrong..sorry been working,but I take it things are looking like alot of snow

Yes! it will snow in Cardiff according to BBC wales lol

[dogs32]

OMG, somebody pick me up of the floor. Did you just see the forecast on BBC. 20-30cm tomorrow/Wednesday

omg

[willitbsunny]

I'm gonna 'do a Jay' now and ask whether any of this snow is due for South, Central Wales? I just missed the BBC news. When is this due to arrive & from what direction? (please x)

[Bristawl Si]

cant believe hows this as changed for us

or am I wrong..sorry been working,but I take it things are looking like alot of snow

On latest forecasts, Dogs, and Ian's update earlier, but it could easily change - i know i keep harping on about Feb last year, but we hit lucky - could easily have missed us and that was a nowcast event - i think tom will be a nowcast event for exact 'jackpot' spot!

[Mark]

Evening peeps. Haven't posted for a while (though have been reading for weeks) and now seemed like a good time.

Currently -2.7c, DP -5.3c, after an overnight (well, 0905 this morning) low of -6.1c. Still not sure we'll be able to beat the recent local record of -11c, but you never know.

I'm looking forward to the next couple of days though I have been bigging the potential up to my work colleagues so it had better come off!

After the amazing falls in Feb 09 I can only hope for more of the same.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'm gonna 'do a Jay' now and ask whether any of this snow is due for South, Central Wales? I just missed the BBC news. When is this due to arrive & from what direction? (please x)

BBC Wales news is on now, showing a forecast soon.

[dogs32]

On latest forecasts, Dogs, and Ian's update earlier, but it could easily change - i know i keep harping on about Feb last year, but we hit lucky - could easily have missed us and that was a nowcast event - i think tom will be a nowcast event for exact 'jackpot' spot!

are we in for the most than other's.is this the general trend of talk.sorry like I say been earning bean's dollars today...so scooting backward and forward from Teaching music

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[Cymro]

Guys, its an advisory not set in stone remeber how quick it came? IT COULD EASILY CHANGE.

[fromey]

Come on - Ian is a busy man at a busy time and he answers your question about 4 posts above.

Mmmm.. not sure my dreams are aligned with yours - You obviously don't work outside like I do.

Significant Ice day here too with a max of -1.7C, already down to -3.5C at a reasonable altitude. 3C difference this morning as I drove down to Frome (-6C here, -9C in Frome)

I posted earlier about the roads - salt / grit may well be outside it's working range because of the very low temperatures giving surface temps of maybe -15C. Do expect lots of ice on all roads even if the snow / sleet is light.

when i went on to work at 6am it was -10.1c now that is cold.

fromey

[Bristawl Si]

are we in for the most than other's.is this the general trend of talk.sorry like I say been earning bean's dollars today...so scooting backward and forward from Teaching music

We are in the 'thick' of it at some point tomorrow night/Wed morning, but it's a little over 24 hours away. I can't help thinking the actual track will be Central Southern England, say 50-75 miles east of the current progged track. But then i need to play it down to manage my own expectation levels

[Lynxus]

are we in for the most than other's.is this the general trend of talk.sorry like I say been earning bean's dollars today...so scooting backward and forward from Teaching music

Its looking good at the moment mate.

20cm + for glos

But i really dont wanna ramp it too much as it will probably change knowing our luck.

Temp is hovering around -3c doesn't seem to be dropping like it was anymore.

[dogs32]

We are in the 'thick' of it at some point tomorrow night/Wed morning, but it's a little over 24 hours away. I can't help thinking the actual track will be Central Southern England, say 50-75 miles east of the current progged track. But then i need to play it down to manage my own expectation levels

I dont know if this is a ramp...but Im hearing 35+

is this correct....surely not

edit cheers Lynxus

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32