South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[dogs32]

depends on what model you wont to believe....one model suggest's Lynxus to be snowed in..lol

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Damn... where did that come from?! Its dragged me away from trying to find a rafting company for ac 10 day trip while in Nepal... I mean work... to have a look!

-4.5C already here... -10c tonight?! It's not even dark yet!

Edited January 4, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Lol,

I would expect Ian will be talking to his BBC co workers with regards to the latest output.

It is looking very good currently.

Lets hope its not just a blip.

lets face it what we really want is 1 of our big atlantic monsters to come pay us a visit now we have the cold air established over us and give us the dumping of a lifetime but i dont want it to push all the way in coz of the mild air behind it so after a good 24hr dumping it can go roll back into the atlantic as the bitterley cold easterlie air blocks it path and pushes it away not to much to ask is it?

[MP-R]

Bl**dy freezing out there already at -2.7C and falling like a stone. I wonder what it will fall to tonight before the cloud increases after midnight.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

-2.0C now <_<

[Lynxus]

lets face it what we really want is 1 of our big atlantic monsters to come pay us a visit now we have the cold air established over us and give us the dumping of a lifetime but i dont want it to push all the way in coz of the mild air behind it so after a good 24hr dumping it can go roll back into the atlantic as the bitterley cold easterlie air blocks it path and pushes it away not to much to ask is it?

"not to much to ask is it? "

<_<

Yeah , But you never know. when the breakdown eventually comes ( whenever that is ) lets hope its QUICK.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Dogs, Will it snow in Cardiff mate? <_<

[jethro]

lets face it what we really want is 1 of our big atlantic monsters to come pay us a visit now we have the cold air established over us and give us the dumping of a lifetime but i dont want it to push all the way in coz of the mild air behind it so after a good 24hr dumping it can go roll back into the atlantic as the bitterley cold easterlie air blocks it path and pushes it away not to much to ask is it?

Sounds perfectly reasonable to me....

[Iceberg]

-3.9 atm and it's still a little light, this will break last nights temps if this keeps up.

[jethro]

Just had a thought (hard to believe, I know) how cheesed off will Mullender be if he comes back to find he's missed the biggest dumping of snow ever?

[dogs32]

Dogs, Will it snow in Cardiff mate?

The man from Del Monte say's No...you have been greedy...we have ONLY had a dusting here!!

you will get something Jay...me maybe a large dumping :lol:

[Jayfromcardiff]

The man from Del Monte say's No...you have been greedy...we have ONLY had a dusting here!!

you will get something Jay...me maybe a large dumping

We've only had a dusting tbh like u lol.

[Lynxus]

Just had a thought (hard to believe, I know) how cheesed off will Mullender be if he comes back to find he's missed the biggest dumping of snow ever?

AHHAHA

Yeah we should all pull up outside his house , point and laugh

Edited January 4, 2010 by Lynxus

[dogs32]

AHHAHA

Yeah we should all pull up outside his house , point and laugh

save the pics for him

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Could we be on the cusp of something magical? With 2 months of winter to go? When was the last time that happened!

I'm loving the fact its moved west... which was pretty much what the GFS said to start with... and then suddenly in the MO its 'nice eye candy, but unlikely' yet when it showed monster snow for the SE 6 days out it was 'bang on cue'

And some say there is no bias

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Sounds perfectly reasonable to me....

little bit tougue in cheek really but somewhere down the line i can see it happening the only thing is the mild air would proberley win and then we will be in our usual south westerley air flow and stuck for weeks but hey that aint gonna happen for a while yet so lets enjoy some proper winter weather for a change bring on the snow we deserve it after years of near misses and hurt:rolleyes:

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I will try not believe we will get snow until it starts falling, but its not to get excited

[dogs32]

Rainfall 1.7 mm

Light 2.9 mm

Moderate 7.3 mm

Heavy 5.2 mm

Heavy 10.4 mm

Torrential 0.6 mm

V Light 0.699 mm

V Light 0 mm

None

Cloud Cover 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90%

Snow Forecast 92% 85% 77% 77% 85% 92% 95% 0%

through out the week

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[jethro]

AHHAHA

Yeah we should all pull up outside his house , point and laugh

I promise if we get a mega dumping (providing I can get out of the village) I'll take pics of Guerney Slade for him - after all, he may have to wait until it's thawed before he can get back....

[Lynxus]

I promise if we get a mega dumping (providing I can get out of the village) I'll take pics of Guerney Slade for him - after all, he may have to wait until it's thawed before he can get back....

He will be sick of the snow by the time he gets back anyway.

On another note.... BRING IT ON! BANK BANK BANK

[Evo]

Little has really changed synoptically to cause the latest output. The shortwave may develop, it may not. There are too many variables to really know at this stage. We do know that the conditions seem to favour the shortwave to become organised, however. The possible side effect is that the initial precipitation will perhaps become more margnial as air from the channel becomes mixed in, however I'm not overly concerned about that.

Anyway, to demonstrate that small changes on the synoptic scale make big changes in precipitation, I've been putting my IMBY glasses on and saving the Tue/Wed Net Weather GFS derived forecast for Bournemouth since the weekend (when the GFS first drived up that shortwave)

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

[textmum]

NER NER we beat um to it!

FIRST!

Only when we actually get it, still will only believe it when I see it!!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

How long after the NAE rolls out does the BBC incoporate it in the forecasts?

Dan Corbett just said 20-30cm of snow as it wraps around on wednesday with his hand pointing towards Devon...

(A question for Ian I guess)

Edit: -5.6C now! Thats insane for 5pm no?

Edited January 4, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[kumquat]

I'm all for the ramping guys but remember how short the timescale of the upgrades. There is still time for it to go the other way. I'm really trying to keep my feet on the ground (..just a little bit....but it is difficult...) Good luck everyone!

[snowking]

Just waiting for the 36 and 48 hr update on the Fax now

Im guessing it will show tomorrows front stalling and rotating across us if theyre going with the NAE or GFS solution

SK