South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[yipikiaye]

Been -2 here in bath well just outside bath actually all day after early fog.

Currently -3 c here and falling

I just wondered some forcasts sky weather are saying snow for us early morning where as bbc/met office etc saying tuesday evening... which is correct?.Also even though its to early to tell for sure is this just a few hrs of snow before it goes off or is this really suppose to go on into wednesday lunchtime.No doubt with the low temps lately the snow will stick around till Fri when we should see more snow according to sky weather.

Thanks

Also the frost stayed around all day despite sunshine breaking through after ealy fog temp last night reached -6 c.And was nice to cycle home lunchtime with frost falling off trees making it look like snow was falling

Edited January 4, 2010 by yipikiaye

[kumquat]

"gutted and ashamed"

"I have a headache and I feel sick"

lol come on guys get a grip....

[Jayfromcardiff]

OMG. I have a headache and I feel sick... the anticipation is all too much!

Lol. take it easy...it's not certain to happen yet.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

Update from Ian coming soon hes back online!!

[SteveB]

It's great isn't it, I am 34 & can barely contain my excitement.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Update from Ian coming soon hes back online!!

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

It's great isn't it, I am 34 & can barely contain my excitement.

hhaaha so true im 19 still went sledging bk in febuary for the first time in my life (i have only lived in england 10 years and b4 feb 09 never had proper snow ever!)

if it snows 2morrow im sure me and my mates will be up bristol airport hills sledgin again

[SteveB]

Ian has just posted in te main model thread

Edited January 4, 2010 by SteveB

[dogs32]

SKY AS ALL THE snow spreading into the Midland's then into the S/W..

[Wilxy]

All do the snow dance so it stays.

[Devon-Nelly]

What a nice pleasant suprise for Wednesday thats popped up i thought the models had dropped the idea or was it always progged?

Could get maybe a couple of inches of the stuff if it were to come off which would suit me fine.

[Mattster1]

All do the snow dance so it stays.

im working in swindon this week, i couldnt make it last feb as old sodbury hill was as far as i could get. this looks like feb all over again but with possibly even more snow. i agree with Ian Ferguson regarding the icy roads tonight, my car reported minus 3 at 16:30 and the country roads were like bob sled runs around here.

[snowking]

Well rather amusing reading some of the thoughts over on the model discussion thread at present - I think the general message is theres a lot of hopecasting going on, some willing it westwards, a majority of course willing it eastwards....in essence a lot of confusion and nobody really had a genuinely accurate idea, i think its safe to say, of where snow will fall

The best guess would be based upon the NAE output you would have to suggest, given its higher resolution, and the latest BBC forecasts certainly reflect this

With such uncertainty I hope and pray it stays pretty much put, i guess by tomorrow morning we will have a better idea.....the way I see it eastern and south-eastern areas will get their snow eventually as the flow becomes easterly anyway, lets the west and south west have their fun tomorrow and wednesday!

SK

[Jayfromcardiff]

Well rather amusing reading some of the thoughts over on the model discussion thread at present - I think the general message is theres a lot of hopecasting going on, some willing it westwards, a majority of course willing it eastwards....in essence a lot of confusion and nobody really had a genuinely accurate idea, i think its safe to say, of where snow will fall

The best guess would be based upon the NAE output you would have to suggest, given its higher resolution, and the latest BBC forecasts certainly reflect this

With such uncertainty I hope and pray it stays pretty much put, i guess by tomorrow morning we will have a better idea.....the way I see it eastern and south-eastern areas will get their snow eventually as the flow becomes easterly anyway, lets the west and south west have their fun tomorrow and wednesday!

SK

The SE have had enough snow lol, we have had sod all tbh.

[dogs32]

SNOW GRITTERS out in force tonight,just see two in 20 min's..

current temp here -4

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi folks

I apologise for the somewhat truncated posts, but I've only got a short time before bed and an 0300hrs alarm beckons; much is changing / happening with the latest runs, as you are all aware.

Firstly, let me re-stress the concerns over sub-regional detail on the last NAE run and so please, please do not take literally what you see. Remember, it's a modelling, not a radar-derived nowcast.

There is - and will be - a difference in the endgame, albeit we can't guesstimate what this might be, spatially or temporally.

However.....

The NAE progged snowfall totals are attached. I need offer little else than to say if - if - this becomes reality, then it's a pretty seriously disruptive event for some parts of our region albeit I so, so stress again that for the bulk of Tuesday, my major worry is the risk of icy surfaces rather than snow. Different story later into Tues evening and night, however.

Lucky me has to revisit this growing forecast nightmare tomorrow (for real) at 0400hrs, but I hope this has offered a reasonable steer and heads-up to the potentially profound changes in the original forecast.

Yes, the NAE sometimes lets us down in my job (but I have gained huge faith in the high-res output from UKMO in the last 2 years) but clearly this one has potential, if not certainty, to be quite an event for some of you (and you will note my cautionary note even at this stage!!)

Those of you who dare to visit the model thread might have seen the additional frames I posted there a short time ago.

Best

Ian

[Iceberg]

I think most can expect at least 5cms or so, a lucky few might get the magical foot, particularly higher elevation which the NAE won't take into account, it's always going to be the east of the SW that comes off best, but tbh I would be happy with 5cm.

Currently a very very cold -6.4C I can't remember ever recording a low such as this as this time, maybe the -10 barrier will be broken tonight.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Brrr its cold -1.8c now with a DP of -3c. Could be on for -3c again tonight perhaps even lower

Just seen the local forecast on itv, and they are going for rain for Devon and Cornwall with sleet on the higher ground. I hope to god they are wrong

But still i think we will see some snow this week with any luck.

Hey,

BBC Spotlight was going with snow pretty much all the way, as was Sky national and BBC national, so I would say that ITV is off the mark... as per usual... with its forecast.

But time will tell.

[textmum]

All do the snow dance so it stays.

We need snow dance emoticons

[Iceberg]

Much appreciated Ian as I am in the 20+ section on that chart. ! It will move though.

The 18Z will almost certaintly tone things down a little, but I will probably be awake for your first forecast of the day.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Iceberg,

Spotlight had the snow carrying on all day for your area tomorrow, but David Braine did stress that Wednesday the snow would cover the whole of the Spotlight area and I quote "not just Dorset and Somerset"

Which differs somewhat to the graphic Ian just posted.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Thanks Ian, that would be quite an event if it came off!

[Lynxus]

Thanks Ian.

Good luck with your forecasts tomorrow.

Its gonna be interesting to say the least

[dogs32]

Ian am I correct in say the larger Orange area is 15cm???

any idea of time scale for the S/W..

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[Mattster1]

hi ian, many thanks for your thoughts, it certainly looks great/horrible (depending on your thoughts of snow) for a large part of the west.