South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Andy Bown]

Not got above -1.4c today despite unbroken sunshine from 09.00-15.00! Before the sun shione there was freezing fog which crystallized and fell as ice crystals which was cool to be out in!

Anyone seen Ian recently?

Calling Ian, come in please, your time is up, we NEED you. Is the projected snow la la land or not?

He does work you know, lol, and is doing the early shift for BBC Points West this week.

[dogs32]

How long after the NAE rolls out does the BBC incoporate it in the forecasts?

Dan Corbett just said 20-30cm of snow as it wraps around on wednesday with his hand pointing towards Devon...

(A question for Ian I guess)

Edit: -5.6C now! Thats insane for 5pm no?

wow...what a update....

which model do we believe

[Lynxus]

LOL -2.6 now.

Temp is plummeting.

Wouldnt be surprised if it hit -7 again tonight.

[Ian Fergusson]

In great haste but urgently - new NAE poses potential for some real, real issues into parts of SW tomorrow; very different evolution and raw totals over 20cm snowfall into Dorset and elsewhere (esp Glos, Wilts, Somerset) by end of tomorrow and continuing into Wed; will post more on later - it is a significant upgrade of snow for much of westcountry because new evolutuion now takes focus southwards into the west, not east.

More later.

[SizzlingHeat]

In great haste but urgently - new NAE poses potential for some real, real issues into parts of SW tomorrow; very different evolution and raw totals over 20cm snowfall into Dorset and elsewhere (esp Glos, Wilts, Somerset) by end of tomorrow and continuing into Wed; will post more on later - it is a significant upgrade of snow for much of westcountry because new evolutuion now takes focus southwards into the west, not east.

More later.

Possible for snow then slightly inland from the coast in Poole Dorset? How much do you reckon could be possible by the end of wednesday if the charts verify? cheers

[Dorset_Weather]

Well I'm keeping my feet on the ground and getting my hopes up but one hell of an upgrade for 1 run and the other models starting to agree it's looking good at the mo.

If the charts are still looking the same in the morning I'll be going out to stock up! tinned and frozen food, logs and coal for the fire, top up the electric key and a big shovel

WOW just hit -5.0c already and it's not even half five yet, will I break my record of -9.1c I got last night.

[Lynxus]

In great haste but urgently - new NAE poses potential for some real, real issues into parts of SW tomorrow; very different evolution and raw totals over 20cm snowfall into Dorset and elsewhere (esp Glos, Wilts, Somerset) by end of tomorrow and continuing into Wed; will post more on later - it is a significant upgrade of snow for much of westcountry because new evolutuion now takes focus southwards into the west, not east.

More later.

Thanks for the info Ian.

Im sure your gonna be busy tonight

[Ian Fergusson]

In great haste but urgently - new NAE poses potential for some real, real issues into parts of SW tomorrow; very different evolution and raw totals over 20cm snowfall into Dorset and elsewhere (esp Glos, Wilts, Somerset) by end of tomorrow and continuing into Wed; will post more on later - it is a significant upgrade of snow for much of westcountry because new evolutuion now takes focus southwards into the west, not east.

More later.

Sorry for rushing - see attached and especially later frames. Trouble. If this becomes reality.....

[Lynxus]

-2.9 here now, Thats -.3 in 15 minutes

Thanks again Ian for the charts.

Tbh, when i was watching the run @15:30 and looked at the charts i had to doublecheck i was looking at the right stuff.

If other charts are also starting to agree with only 20hrs before then this is looking promising.. Maybe even dangerous for some.

Take care tomorrow and weds yall.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Lynxus

[Snowkissed]

Possible for snow then slightly inland from the coast in Poole Dorset? How much do you reckon could be possible by the end of wednesday if the charts verify? cheers

Take what ever we can lol

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Sorry for rushing - see attached and especially later frames. Trouble. If this becomes reality.....

I'll take Tuesday from that and the BBC national forecast for Wednesday

Edit: lost a full degree (1c) in 30mins earlier.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[gloucesterlad]

How long after the NAE rolls out does the BBC incoporate it in the forecasts?

Dan Corbett just said 20-30cm of snow as it wraps around on wednesday with his hand pointing towards Devon...

(A question for Ian I guess)

Edit: -5.6C now! Thats insane for 5pm no?

"Dan the man !" To get to these specifics within a 48 hr window is quite a call. We have been snowstarved here in the West Country/West Mids and quite frankly just a wee dusting on the ground would have me salivating at the chops !!

Good luck all - but I think I'll wait till Tues evening forecast before I get excited though.

John in Gloucester (Quedgeley)

[alex12]

what chance has yeovil got of getting some snow tomorrow and wednesday alot or very little ian?

[twister2005]

well its -3.2c and its only 5.20pm cant believe it all sounds very interesting wonder if met office will upgrade warnings?

[Bristawl Si]

Sorry to be a pain guys, but haven't viewed since about 8 last night. Too busy at work today and with so many people back in couldn't grab a sneaky look!

What's happened to that major snowstorm for the S.E., supposed to be this Friday/Saturday coming, that they were going on about all weekend? I did post a small contrib into the Model Thread Discussion yday that said the HP to our north could scupper the system and push it back towards N.France/Holland - is that what today's model runs are showing now for Fri/Sat?

And i see Ian has posted latest NAE charts for tom/Wednesday - looks interesting, but for now i will temper my excitement! That would be oh so ironic that we get a pasting before the East

Edited January 4, 2010 by Bristle boy

[Wilxy]

the excitment is getting to me but this would be a real dispointment if its a blip anyone tell if it is does more than 1 model runs prove this?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Sorry to be a pain guys, but haven't viewed since about 8 last night. Too busy at work today and with so many people back in couldn't grab a sneaky look!

What's happened to that major snowstorm for the S.E., supposed to be this Friday/Saturday coming, that they were going on about all weekend? I did post a small contrib into the Model Thread Discussion yday that said the HP to our north could scupper the system and push it back towards N.France/Holland - is that what today's model runs are showing now for Fri/Sat?

And i see Ian has posted latest NAE charts for tom/Wednesday - looks interesting, but for now i will temper my excitement! That would be oh so ironic that we get a pastiing before the East

I believe the 00z and 06z pushed it further SE bu the 12z didn't. I think there was still snow around regardless.

[cloudbase]

Afternoon and here in Street the current temp is -2C and falling now the sun has gone. Keeping a keen eye on the forcast as i have to drive someone to Bristol airport in the morning.

If the new model updates are correct then this could be a tricky couple of days if you have to travel around the westcountrty.

[David-kig]

mmmm now thats more like it.....

[Wilxy]

I pray its not a blip!

[alex12]

How confident is everyone that there could be snow?

Wheres the best place that could recieve it?

is south somerset in with a good chance?

[03jtrickey]

HELP! I need some post-insane-GFS-resuscitation here! (I've looked up to T+54)

Blimey Tues-Weds seems to have upgraded, I wasn't expecting that MetOffice advisory for Weds too. How exciting. Going to have to look at the rest of the output before I get too excited.

I'll go back through the thread in a moment and read Ian's update too. I always look forward to these (but I don't want any spoilers before I view the rest of the GFS!

Had a lovely day earlier, walking through the Cotswolds. Some residual light snow in places and a very severe frost made for picturesque wintry scenes. Also, it's been an ice day here - the temperature didn't get above -0.4! Now plummeting downwards, currently -1.1

[snowking]

HELP! I need some post-insane-GFS-resuscitation here! (I've looked up to T+54)

Blimey Tues-Weds seems to have upgraded, I wasn't expecting that MetOffice advisory for Weds too. How exciting. Going to have to look at the rest of the output before I get too excited.

I'll go back through the thread in a moment and read Ian's update too. I always look forward to these (but I don't want any spoilers before I view the rest of the GFS!

Had a lovely day earlier, walking through the Cotswolds. Some residual light snow in places and a very severe frost made for picturesque wintry scenes. Also, it's been an ice day here - the temperature didn't get above -0.4! Now plummeting downwards, currently -1.1

We are getting some very different temperature readings from one another today

Latest ive got from staverton is -3.3c

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/03633.html?MR=1

DP -6c

SK

[Steve_De4]

Hmm - a trip to Telford tomorrow (leaving at mid-day and coming back at 9pm) is looking even less likely... Just as well I keep an eye in this thread. Perhaps I should have bought those snow socks for my car last week...

[Bristawl Si]

Just watched News24 weather with Dan Corbett - Tues night/Wednesday morning looks like the main event, but i fear that could easily change by this time tomorrow - remember Feb 09, right up to the last few hours the actual track of the snow band changed - yes, it affected us then, but it could easily have missed us. Tomorrow will be no different i think.

Tonite the models say "Yes" for tomorrow night, but tomorrow the models could easily say "No".

I'm not being pessimistic, just cautious and realistic. The exact track, i'm sure, will change.