General Model Output Discussion

[Mark Bayley]

i think hp over the uk has been the general idear and most likely the outcome from what i can see.

there also seems to be slight signs of a less cold outlook.

I think the overall signs are for the high to try and retrogress north towards Iceland and Southern Greenland. No mild weather on the cards with the risk of a renewed burst of cold from the North East/East :lol:

Hopfully the ECM will be very simular tonight

[sandstorm2]

Yeah GFS 1200 has had a bit of a backtrack with the cold seemingly going on and on only right at the end of the run does it attempt to get the atlantic back in and that is a feeble attempt.

SS2

[Cheshire Freeze]

Put it this way, if I was a betting man, my money would be on the ECM and UKMO

Aaron

[Mark Bayley]

i dont think its likely already signs of warm up here on the southcoast plenty of rain here.

looks like met office snowfall predictions are totally of the mark.

Well you are right on the southern coast! It will turn much colder towards the weekend. Models show a risk of snow showers for just about anywhere, the main focus being in eastern districts. I can't see anything average or above for the foreseeable future

[Snowgrowler]

Why is everything stuck at T180 - system overload?

[Spurry]

GFS keeps everything cold right to the end of the run, could we really see another 2-3 weeks of cold?

Why is everything stuck at T180 - system overload?

It jumps from 180 to 214(or something)

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

JMA 12z run keeps the block towards the NW into next week - good!

This shows it better!

[Eugene]

GFS keeps everything cold right to the end of the run, could we really see another 2-3 weeks of cold?

Yes we could very easily, GFS 12Z is an incredible run, i will be VERY lucky just to reach 3C in the daytime in a week or two

No atlantic breakdown at all, i`m sure come two weeks time the block will be further north and west than GFS 12Z shows

[MP-R]

Yes we could very easily, GFS 12Z is an incredible run, i will be VERY lucky just to reach 3C in the daytime in a week or two :o

No atlantic breakdown at all, i`m sure come two weeks time the block will be further north and west than GFS 12Z shows :o

Yes! Look at how the Atlantic really comes up against a brick wall when an attempt to return looks to fail:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM shows a ENE for Saturday, then a E for Sunday, so any regions in the East that miss out today/tomorrow could potentially see a lot of snowfall from this. Continuing stunning output from all models

[Snowyowl9]

The country will be grinding to a halt soon.

This is the perfect easterly.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

[NorthantsSnow]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned it already but the NMM, Netweather's own hi-res short range model, has performed much better than the UKMO's NAE as far as today is concerned. The 06z run today is nearly 6 hrs old but looks to have been quite accurate so far in terms of the placing of the snow. The NAE had everything too far west.

I make that Netweather 1, UKMO 0. Seriously, the NMM is a top top model and should be given more coverage.

[Neilsouth]

NorthantsSnow whats the NMM showing for wednesday late or thursday?

[phil nw.]

The country will be grinding to a halt soon.

This is the perfect easterly.

http://www.wzkarten....cs/Rukm1201.gif

Indeed.Good consistency from run to run and that chart full of possibiliies for more snowy troughs,especially for the more Eastern areas.

It`s very quiet in here but i guess ,like me,we are all enjoying the snow falling in many areas and posting in the regionals.

[NorthantsSnow]

NorthantsSnow whats the NMM showing for wednesday late or thursday?

Only goes up to Thursday 12am but for Wednesday night a slow moving line of heavy snow sinking southeastwards across Kent and Sussex between the hours of 4pm and 9pm (approx). Mostly cleared by first thing on Thursday but still a bit by the coast.

[East Herts Snow]

ECM at +96 and +120 hours are absolutely stunning runs.

Amazing Easterly at +120.....

+144 justs continues the cold.... retrogression?

Edited January 5, 2010 by North Londoner

[grab my graupel]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned it already but the NMM, Netweather's own hi-res short range model, has performed much better than the UKMO's NAE as far as today is concerned. The 06z run today is nearly 6 hrs old but looks to have been quite accurate so far in terms of the placing of the snow. The NAE had everything too far west.

I make that Netweather 1, UKMO 0. Seriously, the NMM is a top top model and should be given more coverage.

Agreed mate, I've been very impressed with how well NMM has performed during the Xmas Holidays. It's predicted the snowfall for my region very accurately indeed and is a very useful tool imo

[nick sussex]

OMG the ECM goes from sensational this morning to simply ultra sensational this evening! i know everyone is on the other threads but these synoptics have not been seen for decades!

Unbelievable, i never thought i would ever see charts like this!

[Eugene]

Yes sensational run but not as sensational as ECM 00Z IMO.

Still probably second best ECM run we've seen for ages

GFS 12Z ensembles do want to break it down though but i`m to be honest not taking a bit of notice of the ensembles as they can switch very easily.

[cyclonic happiness]

Say bye bye to the gas supplies if this ECM run verifies, absolutely amazing...we'd be locked in cold until February!

[stewfox]

Lol the latest NAE now has just 2-5cm of snow for the supposed Met Office "Red Zone" that on the 06z NAE showed 20-35cm of snow. There is huge uncertainty still over what is going to happen - BIG surprises and BIG dissapointments to come.

Yes I put myself under 20 or 22 (Heavy snow at present)

Back to the models , another reload at T84 as we have another low to the south wrapping up a nice feed from the east

[Polar Continental]

OMG the ECM goes from sensational this morning to simply ultra sensational this evening! i know everyone is on the other threads but these synoptics have not been seen for decades!

Unbelievable, i never thought i would ever see charts like this!

Yes Nick,

I never though i would see runs like these.

Another bitterly cold run from the models tonight, the ECM particularly so. Quite a squeeze of sub zero easterlies at the weekend look to be odds on now. So frequent snow showers being driven well inland especially over the midlands and the south, nearest the low.

[Cloud 10]

GFS+168.. ECM+168..

Quite a difference between gfs and ecm this evening with the ecm having a split polar vortex (again) which results in stronger blocking north and west.

[yido]

I think Ian hits the nail on the end when he says we have the most incredible run from the ECM and there are hardly any posts on it due to what we have going on right now. After 6 years watching, and trying to learn, it kind of makes you wonder how many people will be left here this time next year when there is only the normal 2 day northerly to get excited over? I can remeber the winters of the 80's as a kid, I wonder if my kids will be my age before they see synoptics like this again?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Just shows you what is happening around the country when there is a 20 odd minute gap between posts on this thread with the output remaining so good for cold fans !

The ECM is not as ourageously good as this morning but the theme, of sending the HP back towards Iceland/Greenland is still the same. The GFS is possibly overdoing the Northern arm of the jet which causes some unlikely synoptics around T168-T200 plus on it's run. I favour the ECM/UKMO solution tonight.

Ian,

I quite agree, but I think you'll find the other threads are humming.

I've just looked over the ECM output and I'm amazed that it's vile out to T144, that's a very nasty potent easterly, only post T168 does that flow slacken.

I also note that the T240 H500 chart has southerlies just about 400 miles west of Ireland, I know it's well into FI, but it wouldn't take much to move that HP. Could that be the beginning of the breakdown that GP has mentioned?