General Model Output Discussion

[Methuselah]

A new thread...

Old thread:

[Optimus Prime]

What are your take on the models Pete?

[Frosty.]

According to the 00z runs, the conditions will ease across scotland by friday with a fine weekend but still icy cold with severe frosts but further south in england and wales the snow will continue with E'ly winds. If the ecm 00z verified, the snow would again extend to all of the uk during next week as hp retrogresses. The gfs 00z is nowhere near as wintry as the ecm in the extended range although it appears to be trying to move in the same direction. If the ecm 00z verified, this would develop into the most severe wintry spell since feb 1991 or even further back to classic cold spells of old that I had almost given up on in recent years.

[southbank]

looking at the esembles over the last couple of days for the ECM there was support from a few of a drop down below -10 uppers on a couple of runs , wondering if todays ECM 0z is beginning to develop that scenario . IT all ties in with GP point about mid Jan being snowy and backed up by current teleconnections. if this varifies then noerthern western europe will be on course for its worst winter in decades , defo a 1/25 year possibily 1/50 year ...... gripping times

[The PIT]

Old classic in the GFS in Deep FI. Mild v cold pushing in the SW and NE. If it comes off would it follow the recent trend of a damp squib or would be the 70's early 80's dumping???

ECM doesn't go that far out but at t240 seems much les sprogressive than the GFS

[Methuselah]

What are your take on the models Pete?

'Morning OP.

That, for the forseeable future, it's going to stay cold or very cold...Snow will fall but I don't know just when or where. Even as early as Saturday, there seems to be quite a discrepancy between the Fax charts and the GFS, as to where the HP will settle and what shape/orientation it'll adopt...

As to looking at precip charts - a complete waste of time, IMO!

[MR EXTREMES]

indeed pete but the amazing thing is what ever model you follow,

all are close to each other and suggesting continued cold.

well just like to add that gp has been spot on with his take on all this and he still going for mid month excitement which does also tie into the models right into fi.

but at the moment some rain at first here in the south later this afternoon then turning to snow,

not worried about if it will settle because i remember this weather type from the 80s,

but if im truely honest i dont think i remember 25 cm,

maybe 7inch.

but i will be doing my bit for the old people because although exciting for us it can be deadly for them.

keep warm peeps and enjoy this has been a long time.

[carinthian]

Classic winter wondreland charts with good agreement with UKMO and ECM out to 144 HOURS. Severe frosts in Scotland and increasing wind chill this coming weekend over Southern Britain. Snowstorms expected across much of Europe

in the coming days. We need a top up here in Austria. More snow in Macclesfield than Katschberg at the moment !!

C

[Nick F]

Well we would all like the 00z ECM to come off if we want the cold and snow to continue!

Difference with the ECM, is that it keeps the mean NW Atlantic trough further west and also the block to our N and NW further west than GFS (GFS puts the block over Scandinavia rather than over Iceland like ECM), which allows a reload of cold arctic air from the NE in the medium range:

[Geordiesnow]

The ECM would most certainly be the prize we would get if the high tries to retrogress back to Greenland.

Still too far out and probably will change on this afternoon's runs but at least its the ECM showing this and not the GFS!

UKMO could perhaps lead to something similar? Bit hard to tell but it looks similar i have to admit.

[cooling climate]

Nick Sussex

OMG what a stunning, sensational, unbelievable, every superlative you can think of ECM run! that is simply synoptics not seen since 1963!

The easterly now also looks stronger so it's really the best model output we've ever seen since we've been on the internet and may not see again for decades!

[MisfitDog3]

I must admit, even as the hard bitten 43 year old cynic that I am, I have just gone through the overnight model runs with my mouth hanging open!

[johnholmes]

I'll drop an update on the developing situation after I've seen the British Isles 09z, unless Nick F does one.

Currently the NMM model is under doing precip amounts for this area, I've had moderate snow since about 0700, not all the time, and its only showing between 1 and 3mm for the whole 24 hour period. Indeed it had none showing over me for the first 2-3 hours. In fast developing situations such as this it is not unusual for this sort of thing to happen.

Anyway update about 100 on developments occurring and how they may affect the southern half of the UK, more specifically south of about Lands to N Yorks.

[dogs32]

Ian or Met Office prediction's or possabilties from this LP

[anvilhead]

I'll drop an update on the developing situation after I've seen the British Isles 09z, unless Nick F does one.

Currently the NMM model is under doing precip amounts for this area, I've had moderate snow since about 0700, not all the time, and its only showing between 1 and 3mm for the whole 24 hour period. Indeed it had none showing over me for the first 2-3 hours. In fast developing situations such as this it is not unusual for this sort of thing to happen.

Anyway update about 100 on developments occurring and how they may affect the southern half of the UK, more specifically south of about Lands to N Yorks.

I'm guessing the low has deepened more than expected looking at xcweather ..

[johnholmes]

dogs and anvil

the amounts and the area look okay to me-but don't be too surprised if they are changed areally and depth wise

and yes it is rather more complex and possibly deeper earlier

[dogs32]

dogs and anvil

the amounts and the area look okay to me-but don't be too surprised if they are changed areally and depth wise

and yes it is rather more complex and possibly deeper earlier

thank's John,Could be very nasty for some,I can see this becoming a major new's story a possabilty of very heavy snowfall

sorry back on topic

[That GFS]

Do we have any updates beyond this regarding north sea precipitation ? , or are we waiting to see what this little low does first

[Cloud 10]

As a few have already mentioned this morning,an amazing ECM this morning.

Even more amazing is that it is one of the milder runs later on the ensembles.

[Nick F]

I'll drop an update on the developing situation after I've seen the British Isles 09z, unless Nick F does one.

Go ahead John, bit too busy at work, but current thinking would base on NAE - here are the charts for 18z and 00z tonight:

Be interesting with nowcasting how it pans out re: distribution/intensity shown by GFS and NAE.

New Netweather alert for today into tomorrow: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerts;reg=1;sess=;

[Frosty.]

Don't want to dampen the mood but the GEM 00z is not looking as wintry as the ecm or even the gfs next week!

[Optimus Prime]

Don't want to dampen the mood but the GEM 00z is not looking as wintry as the ecm or even the gfs next week!

Awful isnt it?

[johnholmes]

Go ahead John, bit too busy at work, but current thinking would base on NAE - here are the charts for 18z and 00z tonight:

Be interesting with nowcasting how it pans out re: distribution/intensity shown by GFS and NAE.

okay Nick-I've done a blog and am about to insert the link in here-thanks

this link may help those in the Midlands and southern areas likely to be affected as the front and developing low move south

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59836-trackinthe-low-tuesday-5-january-2010/

[snowmadchrisuk]

Don't want to dampen the mood but the GEM 00z is not looking as wintry as the ecm or even the gfs next week!

The Gem looks brilliant for the Midlands and the South to me, with high to the north and strong low pressure to the SE it is the perfect recipe for Heavy Snow. Maybe you are talking from a personal point of view.

[weather eater]

The Gem looks brilliant for the Midlands and the South to me, with high to the north and strong low pressure to the SE it is the perfect recipe for Heavy Snow. Maybe you are talking from a personal point of view.

Maybe frosty means that the GEM doesn't pan out as well as the ECM from the mid term. My moneys on the ECM, if only because it has support from the teleconnections, but we shall see, interesting times ahead. Already the most snow I've seen since 1987, only thing needed now to list this winter as truly memorable for me, is proper blizzard conditions, heavy snow, high winds and drifting.