General Model Output Discussion

[casparjack]

Maybe I missed a few comments earlier, but just seen the 12z T+24 FAX, it looks like not much will change, the secondary front is still only just South of the Bristol Channel, somewhere overnight is going to get buried, though the radar at the moment looks odd, can't quite see where the evolution is coming from, is anyone around to fill in the gaps in my knowledge?

[bluearmy]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

18z NAE precip accums for T48

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I just wish it was a bit further south when it swings round, its gonna be close

[Neilsouth]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn902.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn904.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png

Fantastic for ea and se !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Maybe I missed a few comments earlier, but just seen the 12z T+24 FAX, it looks like not much will change, the secondary front is still only just South of the Bristol Channel, somewhere overnight is going to get buried, though the radar at the moment looks odd, can't quite see where the evolution is coming from, is anyone around to fill in the gaps in my knowledge?

Well in last 2 hr we have had here in Redhill 10cm snow, and it is still snowing heavy. It looks like the front stalls to the south of London and just stays there until shifting south. Somewhere in Surrey, sussex, W Kent will get 24hrs of snow. I wish RRR kept my severe warning on his sig, this is the first round with 2 more to come....I am very surprised I am getting the set up the models show now, thought further west was the favourite. Slightly off topic but relevant to current here and now model output.

BFTP

[Duane S.]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

18z NAE precip accums for T48

And this particular one just sums up my luck! <_< (it doesn't get much better BTW, +48 only has accumulations of '1')

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Folks, the easterly progged by ECM is a very serious bonechiller....dangerously cold for the infirm. Please keep an eye on neighbours who come into that category. What is of serious concern is that we are now getting crippling snowfalls in places and as frosty says where it gets calm in Scotland it will become 'intensely' cold. We are an island and our cold is also a 'wet' cold and gets through you more.

It appears most are snow watchers because the synoptic thread is very quiet....for me its all about the synoptics and not the here and now. Truly synoptics from decades gone by, and they aren't goin away. Stick more with ECM at the moment.

BFTP

[casparjack]

Well in last 2 hr we have had here in Redhill 10cm snow, and it is still snowing heavy. It looks like the front stalls to the south of London and just stays there until shifting south. Somewhere in Surrey, sussex, W Kent will get 24hrs of snow. I wish RRR kept my severe warning on his sig, this is the first round with 2 more to come....I am very surprised I am getting the set up the models show now, thought further west was the favourite. Slightly off topic but relevant to current here and now model output.

BFTP

Yes, it does look that way, seems as if the M4 tomorrow morning will be a no go area...

Absolutely fascinating, just trying to track developments today has been amazing, just goes to show how small the differences can be and in situations like this how very small changes have a huge impact to events at ground level.

Can't wait for the next instalment!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

18z NAE precip accums for T48

Whilst i dont read to much into percipitation amount forecasts im not guna complain if that big 30 is over me on thursday haha, i regret to inform you all that this chart has made my night....

[DEYS(Kent)]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

24hr FAX

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Well in last 2 hr we have had here in Redhill 10cm snow, and it is still snowing heavy. It looks like the front stalls to the south of London and just stays there until shifting south. Somewhere in Surrey, sussex, W Kent will get 24hrs of snow. I wish RRR kept my severe warning on his sig, this is the first round with 2 more to come....I am very surprised I am getting the set up the models show now, thought further west was the favourite. Slightly off topic but relevant to current here and now model output.

BFTP

how do you know 2 more similar snow events are to come? when will they be?

[Liam J]

Folks, the easterly progged by ECM is a very serious bonechiller....dangerously cold for the infirm. Please keep an eye on neighbours who come into that category. What is of serious concern is that we are now getting crippling snowfalls in places and as frosty says where it gets calm in Scotland it will become 'intensely' cold. We are an island and our cold is also a 'wet' cold and gets through you more.

It appears most are snow watchers because the synoptic thread is very quiet....for me its all about the synoptics and not the here and now. Truly synoptics from decades gone by, and they aren't goin away. Stick more with ECM at the moment.

BFTP

what can we expect from the ECM if it verifies? alot colder than we have now, sounds interesting yet worrying...

im not sure if i can veiw the ecm as its not available to all?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I just hope people take in and enjoy what is happening now, it's already approaching something special even if you disregard the m/era, with no sign of an end.

Do you think McWeather can produce the charts for those years??

As you say, incredible, at least another 10 days to run, and that's if the breakdown starts appearing tomorrow. And the News reports about US/China/Europe having cold.

The chart of a few day ago where almost every land mass in the NH having cold weather.

God we are lucky we have the Net to see this happening

[Thunder Snow]

How are things looking on the models, is there an end in sight. Although i dont want this cold spell to end.

[Liam J]

How are things looking on the models, is there an end in sight. Although i dont want this cold spell to end.

cold cold cold!! and blast from the past mentioned dangerously easterly on the ecm!!

[casparjack]

what can we expect from the ECM if it verifies? alot colder than we have now, sounds interesting yet worrying...

im not sure if i can veiw the ecm as its not available to all?

Here it is in panel form for the run...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif

[johnny1972]

Folks, the easterly progged by ECM is a very serious bonechiller....dangerously cold for the infirm. Please keep an eye on neighbours who come into that category. What is of serious concern is that we are now getting crippling snowfalls in places and as frosty says where it gets calm in Scotland it will become 'intensely' cold. We are an island and our cold is also a 'wet' cold and gets through you more.

It appears most are snow watchers because the synoptic thread is very quiet....for me its all about the synoptics and not the here and now. Truly synoptics from decades gone by, and they aren't goin away. Stick more with ECM at the moment.

BFTP

Blast

Im sure uve been asked these Questions before. The GFS currently is busting to bring in a breakdown with the ensembles for my area going above -5 on the mean by 13th. However this appears contrary to the ECM and UKMO models. N.I. although cold certainly hasnt done particularly well snow wise in comparison to the mainland. I have watched yours and RJS forecasts with interest last yr and this. What are your views given the current model setup for the remainder of this month (in relation to your own thoughts and current models).

Cheers

PS u heading off to Hinterglemm this yr????

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Blast

Im sure uve been asked these Questions before. The GFS currently is busting to bring in a breakdown with the ensembles for my area going above -5 on the mean by 13th. However this appears contrary to the ECM and UKMO models. N.I. although cold certainly hasnt done particularly well snow wise in comparison to the mainland. I have watched yours and RJS forecasts with interest last yr and this. What are your views given the current model setup for the remainder of this month (in relation to your own thoughts and current models).

Even the ECM has a low out in the Atlantic at T240, but with the blocking where it is, it IMHO will probably slide over Southern Frab=nce Northern Iberia. This cold will take some shifting, and will take some intense mixing out

All the time the North Sea is getting colder than it has in years.

And we are still EARLY in winter, theoretical Mid winter 10-12 days away. Normal winter coldest weather still 18-23 days away

[theuselesseater]

Even the ECM has a low out in the Atlantic at T240, but with the blocking where it is, it IMHO will probably slide over Southern Frab=nce Northern Iberia. This cold will take some shifting, and will take some intense mixing out

All the time the North Sea is getting colder than it has in years.

And we are still EARLY in winter, theoretical Mid winter 10-12 days away. Normal winter coldest weather still 18-23 days away

To add, quickly...the GFS nearly always over devlops lows in the atlantic out past 144, it's akin to throwing its hands in the air and saying WTF....

Suffice, to say...ECM remains top for trend verifcation so far.

PS - That's not to say that at some point the GFS wont pick up a new signal first, however, that signal is NOT in the foreseeable future at the moment.

Enjoy...

TUE - J

[swilliam]

Anyone know whats happened to the "system" that was predicted last Sunday to be coming over the south eastern UK this weekend?

I think this is it

One assumes that the 528 DAM coming North represents some warmer air (hopefully off the surface) giving snow

[WestSussexSnowperson]

Do you think McWeather can produce the charts for those years??

As you say, incredible, at least another 10 days to run, and that's if the breakdown starts appearing tomorrow. And the News reports about US/China/Europe having cold.

The chart of a few day ago where almost every land mass in the NH having cold weather.

God we are lucky we have the Net to see this happening

in jan '63 all we had at home was the shipping forecast followed by the weather forecast on the bbc home service [now radio 4], typically before 6pm. we didn't have a tv. plus of course we had newspaper forecasts and their weather charts. i did a newspapere round, so i studied them all :-)

on the radio, the shipping forecast set the scene quite well; when the weather forecast came on we had a good inkling what would happen inland. quite often the forecast would start with 'Here is a snow warning. there will be moderate to heavy falls of snow in...' and so on. the outlook generally seemed quite accurate. in those days the forecasters seemed to spend their time forcasting snow showers 'or more general periods of snow' ... and bitter cold of course. it seemed an easy life for them :-) february was much the same. i remember the inside of the windows on buses were frozen. i used to scratch the ice to look outside. we didn't have a car.

[casparjack]

I think this is it

One assumes that the 528 DAM coming North represents some warmer air (hopefully off the surface) giving snow

I saw that earlier and discounted it as it looked so out of kilter with the -24 chart for Saturday...

That's a huge move in 24 hrs, bin it?

[Altohumorous]

in jan '63 all we had at home was the shipping forecast followed by the weather forecast on the bbc home service [now radio 4], typically before 6pm. we didn't have a tv. plus of course we had newspaper forecasts and their weather charts. i did a newspapere round, so i studied them all :-)

on the radio, the shipping forecast set the scene quite well; when the weather forecast came on we had a good inkling what would happen inland. quite often the forecast would start with 'Here is a snow warning. there will be moderate to heavy falls of snow in...' and so on. the outlook generally seemed quite accurate. in those days the forecasters seemed to spend their time forcasting snow showers 'or more general periods of snow' ... and bitter cold of course. it seemed an easy life for them :-) february was much the same. i remember the inside of the windows on buses were frozen. i used to scratch the ice to look outside. we didn't have a car.

That's a wonderfully written piece.........

About the weekend, I worry about that warm sector air that is/has been going north through east Europe, even into southern Scandi, that will be the ultimate source of the air that feeds west over the weekend - will it therefore not be anything like the cold that people seem to be assuming?

[casparjack]

That's a wonderfully written piece.........

About the weekend, I worry about that warm sector air that is/has been going north through east Europe, even into southern Scandi, that will be the ultimate source of the air that feeds west over the weekend - will it therefore not be anything like the cold that people seem to be assuming?

I'm not convinced that Sunday will pan out quite as shown in the T120 FAX, it seems so far off everything else, but you never know.

I suspect that the position of the 528 might be an oversight and that in actual fact we could end up with a significant Southern snowfall.

We'll have to wait and see in the morning sadly!!

[John Cox]

Folks, the easterly progged by ECM is a very serious bonechiller....dangerously cold for the infirm. Please keep an eye on neighbours who come into that category. What is of serious concern is that we are now getting crippling snowfalls in places and as frosty says where it gets calm in Scotland it will become 'intensely' cold. We are an island and our cold is also a 'wet' cold and gets through you more.

It appears most are snow watchers because the synoptic thread is very quiet....for me its all about the synoptics and not the here and now. Truly synoptics from decades gone by, and they aren't goin away. Stick more with ECM at the moment.

BFTP

Hi BFTP

These are very serious times for very serious synoptics.

Because they are almost perfect I think this takes the "hope" out of the equation.

This winter will be seriously written about and will be hard to equal for years.

Enjoy the snow of course but for the very serious weather watchers it is the synoptics that enthral.