General Model Output Discussion

[swilliam]

Yep the 12z NAE is good, certainly a streamer into the wash and also a weak one into the Thames, certainly an upgrade!

Also 12z GFS is one big upgrade for Sunday, that needs watching however its a very marginal set-up IMO, esp with the precip not being forecasted to be all that potent...yet!

Beyond that and less cold possibly by the 13th, but whenever the flow turns SE we'll drag in very severe air from a snow-frozen Europe.

When you say marginal do you mean it might or might happen or that it may turn to rain (the predicted temps and dews are quite high)

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

For all the cold lovers out there, look at this chart at your peril, you may be scarred for life!

Aaron

[pyrotech]

Can someone post a link to the NAE models please, so I can see what they are showing.

NAE CHARTS, satalite graphics and now cams http://www.floodwarn.co.uk - in the snow section

[SMU]

UKMO 96-- streamer............

S

[Liam J]

well the 12z gfs showing a very potent easterly with a renewed blast of sub -10 850's

plenty of ice days and extreme overnight temps

expect plenty of convective snow showers and bands sweeping in from the east and affecting a large part of the uk.

ppn charts are not to useful past 24/36hours apart from showing potential is there.

and on goes winter......

Edited January 6, 2010 by james12

[Frosty.]

As per usual the GFS blows the FI horn and it turns milder from the 14th.

Which is nothing like the meto update, they extend the cold until at least 20th Jan and possibly beyond much as the ecm 00z did, so it's now over to the ukmo and ecm 12z to see if we can extract anything else from this cold spell..I don't want it to end without a real fight.

[derrylynne]

Cold has been extended a bit on this run. Potentially more snow on Monday with snow showers from Saturday after. As per usual the GFS blows the FI horn and it turns milder from the 14th.

Bit like the GFS has gone into reverse this year. In past years remember how the colder air was always in F1 - always the promise the snow would arrive but it never did. This year however, the warm is always in F1 - a promise of getting warmer - but it never appears. Interesting times. I think Sunday needs watching as am expecting a large upgrade on Sunday's feature by Friday...

[Rollo]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

For all the cold lovers out there, look at this chart at your peril, you may be scarred for life!

Aaron

If it were to be an actual chart at least it would feel springlike but the chances of it are 0%.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

For all the cold lovers out there, look at this chart at your peril, you may be scarred for life!

Aaron

yep thats looks fairly possible after all gp has mentioned febuary being very much milder,

so maybe this is the start oh well dont matter ive seen something that will stick in my memory for a very longtime.

2010 has been a winter to remember eastern areas turn at the weekend and how anyone can suggest downgrade on the easterly i think your going to be wrong very cold out east and se so dont sound likely for drizzle lol

[mushymanrob]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

For all the cold lovers out there, look at this chart at your peril, you may be scarred for life!

Aaron

he he... now i LIKE that chart!

nice for us mildies that the 12z suggests milder weather by this time next week will be making inroads. :unsure: ..... im not taking this as gospel though!

If it were to be an actual chart at least it would feel springlike but the chances of it are 0%.

surely if the chances were 0% there would be no point posting charts of that future timescale .... would you believe it any more if it showed cold?

[snowingtequila]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

For all the cold lovers out there, look at this chart at your peril, you may be scarred for life!

Aaron

I think this chart looks probable, it get there by a believable route as well, I just think it may take a week or more longer to get to it.

[swilliam]

Cold has been extended a bit on this run. Potentially more snow on Monday with snow showers from Saturday after. As per usual the GFS blows the FI horn and it turns milder from the 14th.

Yes and how does it seems completely unreal. It handles the block quite nicely in the high res part of the run moving it a bit NW than previously, allowing some undercutting, more cold air coming down the Eastern flank possibly for a reload for Europe and maybe us so we arrive at this at the end of the high res.

Then in the low res bit a small SW comes round the main low out to the West of us. Are we in for a big battle?

Certainly not - this massive depression of 980mb and a few hundred miles across (generously) has blown our block, which was straddling from Europe to Greenland, away in 3 days. The Atlantic floods in - something wrong I think.

[Solar Cycles]

I think this chart looks probable, it get there by a believable route as well, I just think it may take a week or more longer to get to it.

All charts are probable, this one seems unlikely though. Can't see an end to the current spell tbh, at this moment in time! Second half Feb should be milder though!

[casparjack]

he he... now i LIKE that chart!

nice for us mildies that the 12z suggests milder weather by this time next week will be making inroads. ..... im not taking this as gospel though!

surely if the chances were 0% there would be no point posting charts of that future timescale .... would you believe it any more if it showed cold?

Yeah, because if it showed cold there would be a 118.76% chance of it being correct!!

[WhiteFox]

UKMO 96-- streamer............

S

I don't need no streamer! There's nine inches of snow in my back garden! It's almost like being back in New York...

As for PPN in the coming Easterly, I recall one or two members lamenting how this current setup was going to be very cold but very dry; why make the same, possibly wrong, assumption twice? We all know that the models cannot forecast PPN accurately past two or three days. The same goes for milder weather; we all know that milder weather will eventually win through, but why do we have to state that it's nailed on for every GFS run? The only reason the GFS gets so much prominence is because it is run 4 times a day and we get a lot of charts from it.

[Duane S.]

I don't need no streamer! There's nine inches of snow in my back garden! It's almost like being back in New York...

As for PPN in the coming Easterly, I recall one or two members lamenting how this current setup was going to be very cold but very dry; why make the same, possibly wrong, assumption twice? We all know that the models cannot forecast PPN accurately past two or three days. The same goes for milder weather; we all know that milder weather will eventually win through, but why do we have to state that it's nailed on for every GFS run? The only reason the GFS gets so much prominence is because it is run 4 times a day and we get a lot of charts from it.

Tell me abouut it! The hi res NAE charts were showing 42mm over me at one stage, 24 hours later just before the snow was about to make landfall, it had reverted to 3mm (which is pretty much what I ended up with and that's being VERY generous).

Got to say though that I found the NAE to be pretty good on the whole, you can only be so accurate guesstimating snowfalls over 24 hours before it happens. The got the amount pretty close, just a shame (for me) it was 70 miles further down the coast!

[Bobby]

The same goes for milder weather; we all know that milder weather will eventually win through, but why do we have to state that it's nailed on for every GFS run? The only reason the GFS gets so much prominence is because it is run 4 times a day and we get a lot of charts from it.

True, the GFS is placed 4th in the best performing models, 3rd at best so do people give it so much weight? It's a pretty poor and inaccurate model compared to say the ECM of the UKMO. They should be paid more attention too.

[Mikel Nimbus]

True, the GFS is placed 4th in the best performing models, 3rd at best so do people give it so much weight? It's a pretty poor and inaccurate model compared to say the ECM of the UKMO. They should be paid more attention too.

The GFS has been very good at picking out trends in Fantasy Island before any of the other models. It was fantastic in December 09 while ECM had a few wobbles. It also correctly predicted the more eastward trajectory of last night's snowfall. UKMO on the other hand had it much further west and did not back down until T+6 before the event!!!!!!!

GFS does go through some very sporadic periods (which I believe it may be doing now) but on the whole I'd rate it 2nd behind ECM. On its day, it can easily be the best there is.

[The PIT]

True, the GFS is placed 4th in the best performing models, 3rd at best so do people give it so much weight? It's a pretty poor and inaccurate model compared to say the ECM of the UKMO. They should be paid more attention too.

Errr where did you gett hat from. last time I looked the 12 oz was 2nd only to ecm overall. Just looked again however and they all pretty much the same now. Still trying to find the charts that showed individual runs as the 12 oz was the best while the pub run the worst.

[NorthantsSnow]

Tell me abouut it! The hi res NAE charts were showing 42mm over me at one stage, 24 hours later just before the snow was about to make landfall, it had reverted to 3mm (which is pretty much what I ended up with and that's being VERY generous).

Got to say though that I found the NAE to be pretty good on the whole, you can only be so accurate guesstimating snowfalls over 24 hours before it happens. The got the amount pretty close, just a shame (for me) it was 70 miles further down the coast! :lol:

That's a really good attitude considering it must have been a pretty big letdown. The NMM handled the system better IMO as it always had it further east. Perhaps unsurprisingly the Met Office paid more attention to their own model the NAE which sadly (for you & others) ended up being wrong in terms of the placement until Tues 12z.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Early frames of the ECM seems to want to throw off shortwaves from tghe main low it the western Atlantic - under the block ... Looks like it may be making one last grab for retrogression at 120h

Edited January 6, 2010 by ned

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well I haven't even looked at the Models this week past +24 due to what has been happening. But I didn't expect to see what is being shown for the weekend, That would stream snow Into the Midlands constantly and would bring amazing amounts of Snow. If it does get milder next week it looks like we will go out with a bang.

[cyclonic happiness]

ECM at 144 is looking a bit scarey, I hope it's not gonna fall down around our ears?? :unsure:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0

[snowmadchrisuk]

ECM at 144 is looking a bit scarey, I hope it's not gonna fall down around our ears??

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0

+168 sends the low to the south and would probably result in another snowfall event.

[cyclonic happiness]

+168 sends the low to the south and would probably result in another snowfall event.

I'm scared chris!! i never want it to end!

168~+ is better than I thought it'd be.