Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[pyrotech]

ECM shows the heaviest precipitation over Wales for Sunday.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp&type=prec

It does seem that steady precipitation seems likely for Sunday, but why issue advance warnings for this.

I agree with you Pyro that GFS is over progressive and the cold is likely to stay throughout next week.

Lets hope we are both right now then. lol

As always another great analysis by you Jackone. Your alps snow thread is interesting but can you forecast the best way for someone to get there, eurostar- no, air - no, bus - no. Perhaps walking at this rate. lmao

Cheers

[J10]

Lets hope we are both right now then. lol

As always another great analysis by you Jackone. Your alps snow thread is interesting but can you forecast the best way for someone to get there, eurostar- no, air - no, bus - no. Perhaps walking at this rate. lmao

Cheers

It obvious really, ski there,

This shows that latest chart from Ian, this gives the latest frames from the Met Office high res model, as you can see heavyish snow over much of Wales forecasted but as we move closer to the event (each run is for Sunday at 12 o clock), there is more snow over Wales. I don't have runs for later in the day, but I really wouldn't be surprised if there was further snowfall going by the wind direction on the FAX chart.

At the moment, a moderate snowfall seems likely for most in Wales, but perhaps they think there is a chance of more than that, going by their warnings, or perhaps I am missing something.

[Marcus_surfer]

It obvious really, ski there,

This shows that latest chart from Ian, this gives the latest frames from the Met Office high res model, as you can see heavyish snow over much of Wales forecasted but as we move closer to the event (each run is for Sunday at 12 o clock), there is more snow over Wales. I don't have runs for later in the day, but I really wouldn't be surprised if there was further snowfall going by the wind direction on the FAX chart.

At the moment, a moderate snowfall seems likely for most in Wales, but perhaps they think there is a chance of more than that, going by their warnings, or perhaps I am missing something.

Moderate snow all day sounds good to me

[Jamie.]

Maybe it's the duration of the snow which backs up the warning.

Moderate snow fall all day could accumulate to as much as heavy snow for a shorter period.

[alijoe]

Maybe it's the duration of the snow which backs up the warning.

Moderate snow fall all day could accumulate to as much as heavy snow for a shorter period.

Yes they said that on the radio and news today. Not heavy but because it is going to be constant, the accumulations are going to be large.... Wow,,, I listened.

[bennytes]

officially starting to worry about this now.

3/4 day blizzards?

not nice. especially as it will be topping up what has already been a large snowfall, which has hardly thawed at all. so far, we here in the Llynfi valley have got off relatively lightly. i think that's about to change, barring a quite miraculous u turn, which, let's face it, ain't gonna happen now! There are spots in Wales and central England that are going to be REALLY struggling after this event I feel!

I'll take the Atlantic battering through now, and giving us a week or two of relatively mild wet weather.(Even though it's highly unlikely at present) it's still early in the winter, plenty of time for further events.

that Nasa pic of the Uk totally white spooked me. it reminded me of the satellite shot of the UK after the Yellowstone eruption and the subsequent cooling in the BBC drama of the same name!

make sure you all have candles, and an alternate cooking source if you have electric cookers too, just as a precaution. I reckon power cuts COULD be widespread! we've got a little camping stove, and a nearly full gas bottle.

Finally, come on mild, you can do it! :lol:

Edited January 8, 2010 by bennytes

[Jamie.]

that Nasa pic of the Uk totally white spooked me. it reminded me of the satellite shot of the UK after the Yellowstone eruption and the subsequent cooling in the BBC drama of the same name!

Wow, I want to see! Link?

[madian2]

here u go

here u go

[Jamie.]

here u go

here u go

Amazing!

Thanks for posting.

[benb]

Two interesting developments from GFS 0z overnight for Wales:

1) More precipitation for Sunday/ Monday

2) The low is being progged to make serious inroads into the block, indroducing milder air by end of Weds. Snow to rain for many.

Only one run, and perhaps over-progressive, but certainly interesting to see if this trend is developed by other models.

Edited January 8, 2010 by benb

[Hywel]

Currently -14.4C here, wonder if it will get any lower in next couple of hours?

[swales]

Here is a Private Weather Station just outside Carmarthen:

http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=metric&station=ICARMART3

-14.3 right now

Might get lower towards the 8AM mark?

[benb]

Here is a Private Weather Station just outside Carmarthen:

http://www.wundergro...ation=ICARMART3

-14.3 right now

Might get lower towards the 8AM mark?

Wow! Does anybody know the record for Carmarthen?

[ian watts]

- 11.7 here now , might get a little colder before sunrise

[CRACKPOT]

Morning guys,

Well - after watching latest Beeb forecast, Carol Kirkwood, showed snow Sunday in Wales - but specified it will stick, but it will be light snow only. Where as all the 'heavy' snow gone?

Not a nationwide event, just a south west and south wales one.

JK

[swales]

I thought it was going to be light to moderate and not heavy?

The only thing was it would stick around for a while which could give some accumulations the same as a short period of heavy snow?

But not sure.

[andymusic]

Morning guys,

Well - after watching latest Beeb forecast, Carol Kirkwood, showed snow Sunday in Wales - but specified it will stick, but it will be light snow only. Where as all the 'heavy' snow gone?

Not a nationwide event, just a south west and south wales one.

JK

I think her graphics were playing up!!!!!!!! - it will be pretty much all of south and middle britain + GFS is seemingly firming up on as the easterly winds hit the welsh mountains the precip increases - we may well get the biggest snows out of this one - after tuesday the low from atlantic trys to mild things up but fails and ends up dumping more snow for a good few days yet!

[DeepSnow]

Not so happy, school is open today, so hope today goes fast! Looking foward to the weekend, even if it is light snow it should be here just about all of sunday and maybe monday? so some nice accumulations, esp over night when not may people are out walking on the snow and turning it into ice!! Well this might be an interesting walk to skl as still snow and ice on alot of paths.

[TonyH]

-16.7c the low a few hours ago, above -16c now!

Lowest temperatures in west Wales since January 1982 (reached -19c in Carmarthenshire then).

[Avain]

Temp got down to -11.9 here, just 3 miles from the west coast as the crow flies! I was expecting it to hit -12 but it never quite got there. Warming up now, -9.6.

[madian2]

seems i have a mini heatwave -2.6c here at aberavon port talbot

[impster]

Any ideas where this supposed 95% chance of snow is coming from then people? Blue skies above!?

Netweather forecast for today - Machynlleth

Edited January 8, 2010 by impster

[andymusic]

Any ideas where this supposed 95% chance of snow is coming from then people? Blue skies above!?

Netweather forecast for today - Machynlleth

isolated showers - no appreciable snow now till saturday night/sunday

This mornings GFS throws out the approaching low altogether from the south west up till wednesday - flippin/floppin - doesn't know what it's doing - on top of that we have a lovely high which is in Kylie's words "spinning around" the lovely cold air and keeping the easterly moving

Edited January 8, 2010 by andymusic

[soupsurfer7]

I know Sunday's snow is supposed to be light, but am I right in thinking that it will last a long time and cause disruption?

[andymusic]

I know Sunday's snow is supposed to be light, but am I right in thinking that it will last a long time and cause disruption?

will be light at times but there will be more moderate/heavyish snow in there as well especially in wales due to our mountains increasing ppn - this is looking like it might continue saturday night through to at least next wednesday/thursday - disruption is definitely possible due to the strength of the easterly wind blowing the snow around into drifts