North West Cold Spell Discussion

[Solar Cycles]

The showers over the North Sea, associated with a trough, are looking very healthy! According to the bbc forecast, they should reach our region by early evening. As always, some intensity will be lost, by the time they get here, but the east/northeasterly flow that is developing should hopefully mean that they'll have much better luck than the ones last night, that just fizzled out before reaching us.

Radar watching once again!

Some snow flurries can't be ruled out tomorrow, as for Sunday, the bbc forecast had the snow only on southern areas while the GFS is showing a snowy day!

Karyo

Personally I'll back the GFS over the bbc for this, not because I want it to be right, just that it has performed better through this cold spell! Edited January 8, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[Thunder Snow]

Its bloody freezing here, i went out wid dogs for 5mins, had to come back my finger started aching.

As for tonight i think most showers will weaken, but there should be atleast a dusting in places.

As for sunday i hope it comes north alittle more, they have had there fun. As for next week i think most areas could see snow.

[HotCuppa]

The showers over the North Sea, associated with a trough, are looking very healthy! According to the bbc forecast, they should reach our region by early evening. As always, some intensity will be lost, by the time they get here, but the east/northeasterly flow that is developing should hopefully mean that they'll have much better luck than the ones last night, that just fizzled out before reaching us.

Radar watching once again!

Some snow flurries can't be ruled out tomorrow, as for Sunday, the bbc forecast had the snow only on southern areas while the GFS is showing a snowy day!

Karyo

BBC / GFS = epic fail

Personally I'll back the GFS over the bbc for this, not because I want it to be right, just that it has performed better through this cold spell! = I almost fell out my chair with laughter when I read that statement.

Actually over the past week or so the beeb have been pretty accurate with their snow forecasts over this region particularly the south of the region which is a big black hole. The GFS has either unperformed magnficiently or its over compensated by huge factors. The GFS has been shocking this winter, having zero clue on what to do with the cold spell.. Its also bad in predicting precipitation amounts...and continously ramps mildness up..

Edited January 8, 2010 by HotCuppa

[La Bise]

I hope you're right about the cold HotCuppa, I'm reading on the model thread that the New Moon will bring mild weather on the 14th, which kind of puzzles me...

[HotCuppa]

Its bloody freezing here, i went out wid dogs for 5mins, had to come back my finger started aching.

As for tonight i think most showers will weaken, but there should be atleast a dusting in places.

As for sunday i hope it comes north alittle more, they have had there fun. As for next week i think most areas could see snow.

Pennines if they are lucky..very weak band of snow showers which will probably die out before reaching the pennines.

[SP1986]

To be honest these are an excptional set of conditions brought up by 'against the odds' exceptional patterns/signals.. one tiny ajustment in one of those signals could well spell the end for this cold spell.

[HotCuppa]

I hope you're right about the cold HotCuppa, I'm reading on the model thread that the New Moon will bring mild weather on the 14th, which kind of puzzles me...

vampires for rain and werewolves for snow..there we go :lol:

To be honest these are an excptional set of conditions brought up by 'against the odds' exceptional patterns/signals.. one tiny ajustment in one of those signals could well spell the end for this cold spell.

Thing is stephen there is just to much entrenched cold throughout Europe..sure we could loose the blocking but is that really feasible considering the situation we are in, especially short to mid range? Some expect high blocking to loosen and we end up back in summer time temps during the coming week ahead...but with the current signals it simply doesnt follow at all.

[SP1986]

vampires for rain and werewolves for snow..there we go :lol:

Thing is stephen there is just to much entrenched cold throughout Europe..sure we could loose the blocking but is that really feasible considering the situation we are in, especially short to mid range? Some expect high blocking to loosen and we end up back in summer time temps during the coming week ahead...but with the current signals it simply doesnt follow at all.

To be honest though nearly all the models push for a 'respite' of sorts, and the signals could change anytime.

Personally I'm hoping they do because endless cold isn't my cup of tea, but I'd happy if it came back later in the winter.

By the way as you know Crosby got to -11C last night well the sea is frozen in a small patch just off Crosby!

[HotCuppa]

To be honest though nearly all the models push for a 'respite' of sorts, and the signals could change anytime.

Personally I'm hoping they do because endless cold isn't my cup of tea, but I'd happy if it came back later in the winter.

By the way as you know Crosby got to -11C last night well the sea is frozen in a small patch just off Crosby!

It got to -11 in crosby? !

Just flicked on the beeb interactive thing, they are still not showing Sunday despite it being Friday. Does anone find this rather odd considering they tend to give out forecasts for 3 days out?

Edited January 8, 2010 by HotCuppa

[SP1986]

Might just be a glitch, I wouldnt read anything into it at this stage, unless they come out sayign "were struggling with the next few days"

As for Crosby it would be interesting to know what the record is there, perhaps Kevin (Mr Data) will know!

[Solar Cycles]

BBC / GFS = epic fail

Personally I'll back the GFS over the bbc for this, not because I want it to be right, just that it has performed better through this cold spell! = I almost fell out my chair with laughter when I read that statement.

Actually over the past week or so the beeb have been pretty accurate with their snow forecasts over this region particularly the south of the region which is a big black hole. The GFS has either unperformed magnficiently or its over compensated by huge factors. The GFS has been shocking this winter, having zero clue on what to do with the cold spell.. Its also bad in predicting precipitation amounts...and continously ramps mildness up..

I agree it's medium term forecasting has been terrible, but at 48 hrs, it as been far more accurate than the bbc!

[HotCuppa]

I agree it's medium term forecasting has been terrible, but at 48 hrs, it as been far more accurate than the bbc!

Definitely agree there

[Maz]

Pennines if they are lucky..very weak band of snow showers which will probably die out before reaching the pennines.

Still too much 'North' and not enough 'East' in the wind aloft, so doesn't look like the latest crop of showers will get far enough inland. Wind needs to strenghten too!!

Edited January 8, 2010 by Maz

[Backtrack]

Why is there 2 northwest coldspell discussions?

Anyway, -7.3c overnight. But worried about that rise, already -2.4c!!!

[Liam J]

temps really struggling today, just got up to -4.9c

[Backtrack]

temps really struggling today, just got up to -4.9c

Struggling?!

It got to -2.2c a sec ago! a 2.7c rise in an hour!

Anyway back down to -2.7c now for some reason.

[SP1986]

There shouldnt be a fall in the temperature again of 0.5C, you may have to check your sensor.

By the way there are reports in Runcorn that it was as low -9C last night.

[Weather-history]

Unfortunately not sharp focussed

[SP1986]

Unfortunately not sharp focussed

Very Impressive! I think if that occurred my WS it would probably blow up

Is that your all time lowest minima?

Also I see at the time it was 10.0C inside, deary me, frozen toes I think!

[Liam J]

-4.4c remarkable temp for my location at this time of day, just shows how weak the sun is during this time of year...

yesterday managed just to ge to -2.9c

lets see if i can stay sub -3 today, looking good

even the sea front location st bees head is at -1.6c

Edited January 8, 2010 by james12

[HotCuppa]

I just caught the latest beeb interactive forecast...now we are at sunday morning at 5am how about the rest of the day too. Very odd.

LJLA now at 0C

Garston at -1C

My Temp -2.8C

I am sceptical about the airport's recorded temperature right now. I doubt it would be 0C while everywhere else around it is below freezing, some well below.

Edited January 8, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Backtrack]

There shouldnt be a fall in the temperature again of 0.5C, you may have to check your sensor.

By the way there are reports in Runcorn that it was as low -9C last night.

Yes. My dad said the van temperature read -9c this morning. Not sure why i keep reading 2c higher than what it is.

Anyway -0.6c now and only just scraping an iceday!!

Unfortunately not sharp focussed

My station is similar to that. Mine is a meteo clock that i bought for £60 - Worst purchase i ever made.

It constantly reads 1c higher than the air temp is. The wind speed doesn't work nor does the rainfall measurer thing.

My other one is one i got from Argos - Seems to be accurate.

I just caught the latest beeb interactive forecast...now we are at sunday morning at 5am how about the rest of the day too. Very odd.

LJLA now at 0C

Garston at -1C

My Temp -2.8C

I am sceptical about the airport's recorded temperature right now. I doubt it would be 0C while everywhere else around it is below freezing, some well below.

It sounds correct... Im only just below freezing!!

[SP1986]

0.2C here currently! Not surprising, again snow starting to melt in the sun and some even in the shade.

[HotCuppa]

Yes. My dad said the van temperature read -9c this morning. Not sure why i keep reading 2c higher than what it is.

Anyway -0.6c now and only just scraping an iceday!!

My station is similar to that. Mine is a meteo clock that i bought for £60 - Worst purchase i ever made.

It constantly reads 1c higher than the air temp is. The wind speed doesn't work nor does the rainfall measurer thing.

My other one is one i got from Argos - Seems to be accurate.

It sounds correct... Im only just below freezing!!

Vehicle thermometers are a waste of time, and are usually 2 or 3C below what it actually is.

You could be right..Garston now reporting: -0.7 °C

Where is this warmth coming from?

Edited January 8, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Backtrack]

Vehicle thermometers are a waste of time, and are usually 2 or 3C below what it actually is.

Garston is -1.9C exactly at this time. There is no warm pool of air between you and the airport this is why I am sceptical.

The one in my dad's van is very accurate - Almost always reads what my WS does.

Why are both my weather stations reading just below freezing? One is in the enclosed yard (Which is why this is wrong) But the other one is sitting on the car in the front, the street is about 10M wide out the front houses either side, but this shouldnt be making the temperature read 2c higher than it is.

No matter where I put it - It will never be accurate.

Edited January 8, 2010 by Backtrack