3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 6

[Jason T]

See my previous post on this page, I think a euro high forming will give us mildish weather for a time but then ridge slightly north

alowing cold air to pour in, but not till the end of the month, What do the experts think ?

Well alot are saying hard cold spell coming sooner rather than later, heeps of snow others saying its going to be mild for a little bit then very cold. In the models thread there appears to be a lot of change today to the models than yesterday.

[Ben_Cambs]

See my previous post on this page, I think a euro high forming will give us mildish weather for a time but then ridge slightly north

alowing cold air to pour in, but not till the end of the month, What do the experts think ?

Im not an expert but I think the signs are for a cold spell, at the moment it would start around the 27th/28th, but that is subject to change. There are plenty of factors like a deep negative NAO, Azores and Arctic blocking that will aid the cold. I think the cold will come from the North East, due to the Baltic sea freezing over around Finland and Sweden

[shotski]

Question for Snowman, if I may, in deep Fi on GFS it appears to show High pressure to our west and low pressure to our

east ? This seems a strange set-up or am I reading the charts wrong.

[SnowAngel]

Hi all,

Deadly quiet on here today! Is it because all our snow has gone? Not even any comments on what the models are, or not, showing in relation to our 'no mans shires'.

Mayhap we'll have a short lived snow event this week........mayhap we won't....but interesting none the less. I think we'll have a couple of frosts as well and it is cold/mild as opposed to the mild/mild we have grown accustomed to in recent years. All in all a cold winter so far and the possibility of it continuing to be so in due course.

Not even any real comments on the Seagull revelation of 'TEITS'!!!!! As an ornithologist I would like to know a little more on this....does anyone else know this Seagull weather lore? or any other weather lore relating to animals and birds?(except for the very discredited cows lying down forecasting rain ).

tara4now

Tringaling

I can't answer the seagull query, though we have had loads of the wretched things hassling our local birds esp the kites here in the Chilterns this winter. But I was prewarned it was going to be a cold winter by the glut of hazel nuts, hawthorn and holly berries this year as if nature was preparing .

[Heisenberg]

Hello all Newbie here. I have been watching this thread for a while now during the cold snap and I firstly have to say thanks to all of the members, you guys are great and I am very impressed with your knowledge and have watched the forcasts come true. I have just seen a MO warning for snow in herts on Weds ( I live in borehamwood), do we think this is going to happen? I think it would be nice to have another load.......Please let me have your thoughts.

thanks all

Lloyd

[Mr_Pessimistic]

IF this cold spell comes true in a week/10 days time or so, I won't be holding my breath for any snow unless it brings 70mph direct easterly winds with very cold uppers etc. As so far here in south norfolk we have had barely any snow, infact, there has been very little diffrence between this winter and many previous winter inc. Last year. I.e. About 2" total. If there is a e/w battle, the ppn never reaches here, if there is an e'ly, the wind has to be strong enough to penetrate inland, same case with an northerly or se'ly. The ppn always avoids my area somehow, from experience I would say the best places to live in ea with reguards to snow would have to be cambridgeshire, heartfordshire and north norfolk. Suffolk and essex is bad.

I can't see this being a lasting event either and probably very marginal around the coasts, ie, me.

Good luck to everyone though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Personally I think Wednesday will have snow only over high ground with a bit of rain/sleet at low levels. I may be wrong, but that's how I currently see it for this region.

Chances of a cold NE'ly spell towards the end of the month but too far out to be able to have any confidence in them.

[Ben_Cambs]

Personally I think Wednesday will have snow only over high ground with a bit of rain/sleet at low levels. I may be wrong, but that's how I currently see it for this region.

Chances of a cold NE'ly spell towards the end of the month but too far out to be able to have any confidence in them.

Agreed, any snow that falls will be short lived as on Thursday another batch of rain will just pile in....

[Tringaling]

I can't answer the seagull query, though we have had loads of the wretched things hassling our local birds esp the kites here in the Chilterns this winter. But I was prewarned it was going to be a cold winter by the glut of hazel nuts, hawthorn and holly berries this year as if nature was preparing .

Thank you SnowAngel. I have not actually noticed a major influx of Gulls around here or on the Tring Reservoirs, just the usual amounts, but a few more Red kites in the area. I understand your thoughts on berries and nuts however I am reliably informed that it can only mean there had been good weather at pollination time and can not be relied on for forecasting cold winters. In fact 2 years ago the Hawthorns were full of berries and we had a very poor winter for cold/snow. However I do believe that some weather lore must be correct otherwise why would it be passed on down the ages?

Think it will be plain miserable here weather wise for next few days and I just hope that FI forecast hold some water......er......I mean snow ... for us in about 10 days time.

tara4now

Tringaling

[shotski]

The chances of a cold spell at the end of the month look 50/50 at the moment. If the euro high pushing up stalls at the wrong

place we could see a very mild spell of weather, hopefuly it will travel slightly higher and sit over scandi.

It looks like sleet/rain for 3 counties on Wed and then a milder end to the week.

[Jason T]

These interlude times are the most frustrating ever as there is many different opinions at the mo about models which one favours the true outcome, I think most will agree it is either way at the moment, But having said that i still believe we will see another cold spell but more than likely a severe one and i agree with some that it will be prolonged, Snow fall could be more frequent and wide spread.

[Snowangel-MK]

Apart from on the model thread everyone seems to have gone very quiet about Wednesday and the 'Battle Lines' between the Siberian High and the Atlantic System.

Which one will win ?

There's only one way to find out .....

FIGHT !!

[Ben_Cambs]

The Block is easily going to win tomorrow, no chance of snow for this region, PPN wont get any further north than London. The Met will take the advisories down today for EA Im afraid

[Hammer]

Re TEITS Gulls comment.

Certainly interesting to see plenty even here in Sawbridgeworth. Walking around town yesterday, saw plenty and as others have mentioned elsewhere, they seem quite irratable and hungry, swooping low at cats as well as if to suggest they are not scared.

All very interesting if the lore is proved correct in this case.

[Ben_Cambs]

Re TEITS Gulls comment.

Certainly interesting to see plenty even here in Sawbridgeworth. Walking around town yesterday, saw plenty and as others have mentioned elsewhere, they seem quite irratable and hungry, swooping low at cats as well as if to suggest they are not scared.

All very interesting if the lore is proved correct in this case.

The Gulls are always here! :lol:

[NorthantsSnow]

Saturday could be interesting--

http://209.197.11.170/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100119/06/96/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f368a9b446331ea443331ba95f63af1d0e68673&dopsig=7ddc6193e826b36669af7f8fac2a6ce4

Temps, dewpoints etc look just about the RIGHT side of marginal for some heavy snow.

Hopefully these charts will continue.

[Snowangel-MK]

sNOw chance of getting anything tomorrow then

It has has been a very cloudy and dull day here, stayed dry so far with top temp of aprox 6 oC with a chilly E/SE wind.

I'm wondering if the snow pile on my drive (which has been slowly melting) will last until the weekend for a top up, Saturday & Sunday look promising but I won't get my hopes up yet as no one seems to be sure that far ahead.

Has the local forecast had a wobbly for Monday

or could we really see day time temps as low as -7 with a -13 wind chill

[Stu_London]

Re TEITS Gulls comment.

Certainly interesting to see plenty even here in Sawbridgeworth. Walking around town yesterday, saw plenty and as others have mentioned elsewhere, they seem quite irratable and hungry, swooping low at cats as well as if to suggest they are not scared.

All very interesting if the lore is proved correct in this case.

Sorry to burst everyones bubble but there is not a single proven scientific instance of nature being predictive - it is always reactive.

More chance of the earth being flat than the easterly gulls story being correct

Meaningless, if entertaining, froth I'm afraid.

[Snowangel-MK]

Sorry to burst everyones bubble but there is not a single proven scientific instance of nature being predictive - it is always reactive.

More chance of the earth being flat than the easterly gulls story being correct

Meaningless, if entertaining, froth I'm afraid.

I'm sorry but it's not 'froth,' it is well known all over the world animals have certain behaviours they exhibit before the weather changes for the worst.

When the 2004 Tsunami struck South Asia there was a very low count for loss of wildlife, no dead uncaged animals (including Elephants who have been well documented as having reacted very strongly just before the disaster) were found in the path of destruction.

And never underestimate Mother Nature, she is after all a Woman

[Luton Weather]

Hello everyone,

Saw the bbc weather forecast on the internet and it shows that Luton will get heavy snow from 12pm.

Just want to ask that will Beds, Bucks, Herts get 10cm of snow?

[NorthantsSnow]

Just been outside and it's drizzling here in Northants. Temp 4C.

[Ben_Cambs]

Hello everyone,

Saw the bbc weather forecast on the internet and it shows that Luton will get heavy snow from 12pm.

Just want to ask that will Beds, Bucks, Herts get 10cm of snow?

Even though it says this, its very unlikely to happen, the band will fizzle out, as a massive block will prevent the band from getting any further north than London Im afraid.

Its going to turn a lot colder next week though...

[Jason T]

Temps dropping quite quick now, Wind well picked up. Models bouncing everywhere. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.

[Ben_Cambs]

My Forecast until Sunday:

Tomorrow: The band of rain/sleet will affect only southern parts of the region, I can only see snow if any over the Chilterns, due to DP's and 850 Uppers just being too high for our mostly low lying region. Tomorrow will be fairly cold, maxes of 1-4C. The band will die out due to the huge block to our East.

Thursday: A mainly dry day with sunny intervals, slight SE breeze. Maxes up to 5-6C. Gradually clouding over in the evening

Friday: Looks like a band of heavy rain will cross the region, introducing milder temps, but only temporarily. Mildest day this week. Maxima of 9-10C

Saturday: Starting to turn colder, we are starting to get more of a continental feed of cooler air to start with. Should be dry. Maxes of 7C

Sunday: The Theme from Saturday continues. Dry and cold now. Maxes of 5C.

Next week

There is huge disagreement from the main models on next week. I suspect a weak Easterly/South Easterly will bring cold temps, maybe by the middle of the week daytime temperatures struggling. Hard frosts at night. It is way too far off to forecast snow potential.

One model, UKMO (The Met Office) shows a scenario for snow showers off the North sea at the start of next week. IF the Easterly flow gets a lot stronger, then an intresting scenario may arise. The models are all over the place at the moment, so I expect this to change. My next forecast will be on Saturday, Next week should be clearer by then

Edited January 19, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Luton Weather]

Even though it says this, its very unlikely to happen, the band will fizzle out, as a massive block will prevent the band from getting any further north than London Im afraid.

Its going to turn a lot colder next week though...

On the following site, it says that Luton will see heavy snow:

http://www.heartdunstable.co.uk/weather.asp?wxRegionId=1000&wxTownId=4584