General Model Output Discussion

[len]

Yes it looks like the models have notched another click of the ratchet back towards our more familiar winter pattern today.

As this trend of Atlantic awakening has been emerging, it looks like the long overdue solar cycle has been finally kicking off.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Any coincidence????

Len

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Actually, another point looking at most models, is the tendency for pressure location:

Low Pressure - West or North of the UK

High Pressure - East or South of the UK

At least...in the current projections.

[phil nw.]

A definite move away from an Easterly by all the output this morning.

The Energy of the Votex modelled near it`s Greenland home next week is just too close and keeps the blocking further East.

[SussexmarkyMark]

The Siberian HP seems very unlikley to exert any significant influence on the UK weather for next week, with LP in the North Atlantic looking to be the more dominant feature for NW Europe. The SE will probably have fairly benign weather and, although chilly at times, it will probably be fairly dry and overcast from a cold continent, but never really getting a true easterly to pull in any significant cold. The west of the UK more prone to attack from the Atlantic, so fairly average temperatures and some rain at times. Towards the end of next week the Atlantic looks more likely to exert it's influence over the whole of the UK.

So all that rather premature and, if I may say so, rather nauseating back-slapping of yesterday seems a little preamture !

[Tom D]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-180.png?0

Not seen a 940mb low for a while look at that monster! I think that control eventually brings low pressure across the UK from the southwest looking at the ensembles further out.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[snowingtequila]

The Siberian HP seems very unlikley to exert any significant influence on the UK weather for next week, with LP in the North Atlantic looking to be the more dominant feature for NW Europe. The SE will probably have fairly benign weather and, although chilly at times, it will probably be fairly dry and overcast from a cold continent, but never really getting a true easterly to pull in any significant cold. The west of the UK more prone to attack from the Atlantic, so fairly average temperatures and some rain at times. Towards the end of next week the Atlantic looks more likely to exert it's influence over the whole of the UK.

So all that rather premature and, if I may say so, rather nauseating back-slapping of yesterday seems a little preamture !

think it's too early to call myself. Why do we believe all this mornings models but not believe last nights 18?

[Rollo]

I think we must all be realistic this morning and admit it finally looks as though our month long cold spell is coming to an end. We still have quite a lot of winter left and as long as pressure remains high to our North-East there must be a chance at some point for the vortex to relax and further incursions to make their way westwards towards us.

[snowingtequila]

I think we must all be realistic this morning and admit it finally looks as though our month long cold spell is coming to an end. We still have quite a lot of winter left and as long as pressure remains high to our North-East there must be a chance at some point for the vortex to relax and further incursions to make their way westwards towards us.

I am being realistic I want it warm and sunny really but it is unlikely. I just think that we cannont discount an easterly next week unless we get to Saturday/ Sunday and no model has progged it from now. I think the highest probability is for us to be on the edge of the block in a no man's land but that has not been shown either!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

think it's too early to call myself. Why do we believe all this mornings models but not believe last nights 18?

But this is the problem. Why believe last nights 18z, and not the earlier 00z?

It's all a bit chicken and egg really.

But its the model discussion, and as it stands, the 00z runs have gone against the easterly.

The other issue is looking at GFS outputs for things like the vortex and jet stream movement. Its all interlinked on the output, so to say the jet pattern has changed, and so has the pressure position/movement, is, well...quite obvious.

Thats why I like the posts which show output of these things outside of the general concensus of model output...it helps back up the points on the models.

[aspire27]

I think we must all be realistic this morning and admit it finally looks as though our month long cold spell is coming to an end. We still have quite a lot of winter left and as long as pressure remains high to our North-East there must be a chance at some point for the vortex to relax and further incursions to make their way westwards towards us.

There are so many ups and downs on this thread. The is no continual trend to mild and no continual trend to cold. At the moment the models keep chopping and changing from one to another. We get cold output then mild, and then it switches again.

People are talking as this winter has finished....rubbish.

[Snow Queen one]

I am sorry but this is slightly off topic but......... Why do winters always have to be snowy on this forum? I know we all like the stuff but if we do not get a cold senario shown on the models is it really worth banging on about winter being over? There is a lot of winter weather to be had still and that includes storms with heavy rain and winds and also frosty mornings with clear blue skies.

Don't give up and enjoy what we have got. In other words stop with the "winters over comments"

off to work now bye!

[cooling climate]

The models have definitely backed off of another very cold spell of weather although it could still

be on the cold side.

I am still of the belief that we will see a renewed and potent cold and wintry spell around the

23rd onwards.

[phil nw.]

think it's too early to call myself. Why do we believe all this mornings models but not believe last nights 18?

Quite simply -Trends. This mornings runs are all close in their sypnotics,plus the Ens. continue to paint a warmer picture. http://charts.netwea...arwickshire.png The op.was on it`s own as a cold run in the mid term. There was more disagreement amongst the models yesterday.

Edited January 14, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

There are so many ups and downs on this thread. The is no continual trend to mild and no continual trend to cold. At the moment the models keep chopping and changing from one to another. We get cold output then mild, and then it switches again.

Actually, I would say there is a trend...to average temps (it doesn't always ahve to be cold or mild )

Edited January 14, 2010 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[mushymanrob]

liking fi where alot of mild weather is suggested on the gfs 00z . if a bartlett took up residence in late january then its unlikely that we will have any more nasty cold stuff .

however.... that massive scandi-siberian high is always a cause for concern and could easily inflict a prolonged freeze on us.... that might suit most here, but not all!

[derrylynne]

I am sorry but this is slightly off topic but......... Why do winters always have to be snowy on this forum? I know we all like the stuff but if we do not get a cold senario shown on the models is it really worth banging on about winter being over? There is a lot of winter weather to be had still and that includes storms with heavy rain and winds and also frosty mornings with clear blue skies.

Don't give up and enjoy what we have got. In other words stop with the "winters over comments"

off to work now bye!

Could not agree more with your comments. I would like a warmer spell as I am sure many others would. And at the end of the day this thread is 'model output discussion'. Mild or cold. Snow or rain...The charts seem to have done a good turn around in less than 12 hours leading me to think the charts are in a flux as to what is going to happen. They could just as quick turnaround again within the next 12 hours. Whatever they lead to winter is far from over. And don't forget the UK has been spoiled for snow as already we have had far more than for many recent winters.

Interesting that all the models seem to agree - signalling to me it is game set and match for mild. Or is it?

[PB22]

I am sorry but this is slightly off topic but......... Why do winters always have to be snowy on this forum? I know we all like the stuff but if we do not get a cold senario shown on the models is it really worth banging on about winter being over? There is a lot of winter weather to be had still and that includes storms with heavy rain and winds and also frosty mornings with clear blue skies.

Don't give up and enjoy what we have got. In other words stop with the "winters over comments"

off to work now bye!

Excellent post. There's a lot of other weather types to be experienced in winter and it looks like it may soon be time for one of those other types to come along.

The 06Z GFS is now coming out and the weekend is still looking a lot milder than recent weeks, with many areas seeing temperatures back up to normal, and even above normal in some places:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn601.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn602.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn6017.html

Although these milder conditions also means a band of wet weather will cross the country on Saturday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn604.html

P.S. I thought you might like the outlook Mushy!

[Weather-history]

The snow risk maybe receding but the ice risk is still there.

Sunday morning

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs724.gif

Monday morning

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs964.gif

[PB22]

GFS now tending to bring the Atlantic more into play on the 06Z by T+126:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1261.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1262.html

[The Weather Dragon]

The Atlantic is really firing up at the moment & coupled with the Jetstream moving slightly further North & the PV becoming well established over Greenland I hope that the block recedes quickly. A long protracted battle will leave us in a dull no mans land for days before the Atlantic eventually wins.When the Atlantic steams in it'll take some shifting thus wasting precious Mid-Winter time. The key to any change is the splitting of the PV which could allow retrogression and blocking towards Iceland/Greenland - this is a slight possibility 5-10% probability.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Jonathan Evans

[TEITS]

GFS now tending to bring the Atlantic more into play on the 06Z by T+126:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1261.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1262.html

Unfortunately Paul you missed the SW tracking SE from the parent LP. This actually brings snow to the UK!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

If everyone wants to believe the chances of an E,ly are long gone than fair enough. I however keep an open mind when you have ensembles like below.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

These might be for Holland but synoptically it only requires a relatively small shift.

[PB22]

Here comes the Iberian High to join up with the high to the northeast, with those mild southwesterlies heading our way:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1621.html

http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn1622.html

Edited January 14, 2010 by Paul B

[Bobby]

The 06z GFS look to be finally giving up the easterly.

The writing is on the wall now I think.

[robert]

Unfortunately Paul you missed the SW tracking SE from the parent LP. This actually brings snow to the UK!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

If everyone wants to believe the chances of an E,ly are long gone than fair enough. I however keep an open mind when you have ensembles like below.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

These might be for Holland but synoptically it only requires a relatively small shift.

I agree with you eye, it's one run and that low will bring snow to us. I think paul b woke up in a mild mood today

[Bobby]

Unfortunately Paul you missed the SW tracking SE from the parent LP. This actually brings snow to the UK!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

Yes that's interesting... battleground snow event for Western/Central UK.