Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[DeepSnow]

Last night was colder than the last few night, had a low of -1.7C and currently -0.7C. Looks like we have some slightly colder air over us now.

[DeepSnow]

Went out earlier today and didnt need a coat, just had a t-shrit and hoodie on and there was a slight coolness to the air, but it was more like a early spring morning, just without the flowers and blossoms lol. Despite looking foward to our next cold and possibly snowy spell, im now also starting to look foward to spring, as even then we can get some snow

[pascalsbongo]

You'd better have a word with the meto/bbc then - as they think there's more to it than that!

Things i think are maybe not looking as good now, that -12 is a long way off Andy , and i think you will have to wait until next winter at least to see it.

I think a call to Matt Groening is needed, as we need to hire Mr Burns and his sun blocking machine.

Soooooooooooooooooooooooo, its erm not snowing yet , ok , yes , hmm , i think i shall get my coat once more.

Coat got.

Door closed.

[Bobby]

The easterly has now been downgraded so much as to be essentially non-existent. Can totally write ti off now.

Might be more potential from a Nly/NEly later next week though.

[andymusic]

Right at the end of the GFS 18z run tonight - extreme F I - signs of maybe the greenie high - already talked about on accuweather to affect the USA in the middle two weeks of Feb and bringing them a cold spell with the possibilities of doing the same for us here in the UK! Need to keep watching this - around the 7th Feb! - looks as if Joe B with his 25th Jan cold spell has come un stuck a little - he did add a proviso to that prediction - that it wouldn't be the same as what we had earlier this month - but it looks as if it'll just be dry and coldish! - sorry about that folks - but I still think we'll have a few more snow falls before the winter is over yet!

Edited January 23, 2010 by andymusic

[A_T]

You might as well use tarot cards when trying to forecast a month from now.

[alijoe]

Right at the end of the GFS 18z run tonight - extreme F I - signs of maybe the greenie high - already talked about on accuweather to affect the USA in the middle two weeks of Feb and bringing them a cold spell with the possibilities of doing the same for us here in the UK! Need to keep watching this - around the 7th Feb! - looks as if Joe B with his 25th Jan cold spell has come un stuck a little - he did add a proviso to that prediction - that it wouldn't be the same as what we had earlier this month - but it looks as if it'll just be dry and coldish! - sorry about that folks - but I still think we'll have a few more snow falls before the winter is over yet!

Well, unlike me, no one can get things right ALL the time. lol But It is this morning here is Magor, beautiful and crisp and frosty with blue skys and that will do me if we can have some more of this, it beats walking the dog in the Rain.

[J10]

Looking at the models for the mid part of the week. There are signs of a potent northerly, which is now set to effect Wales. However there is milder air to the NW, so it is a bit of a tightrope upon getting the NW winds, to being the showers, but also keeping the coldest air.

If for example the GFS 06HZ were to come off, then snow showers/snow streamer for prone areas, may well become established for a time towards next weekend. There is also a sign for a front with associated mild sector to push south, which is always fun.

However there is a very fine line, and things can easily go wrong, even the previous GFS 00HZ didn't look half as good.

[Bobby]

so it is a bit of a tightrope

Lol, isn't it always in this country.

Big change in the models this morning... strong agreement now for a rather potent Nly/NEly coming across all of Britain. Some places of Wales would definitely get snow in this set up.

[andymusic]

Seems they've all finally fallen into line with a pattern they can all agree on - happened very quickly too - another cold spell on the horizon then - and still the rest of feb/march to go as well

Edited January 24, 2010 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

On countless occasions over the years feb always the best month for snow a nnwest flow brings wales snow streamers down the irish sea and a repeat is on the cards again ,i am confident of snow by next friday we will have a fair amount of snow in wales .With north wales particulary badly affected.

[keithlucky]

Looking at the models for the mid part of the week. There are signs of a potent northerly, which is now set to effect Wales. However there is milder air to the NW, so it is a bit of a tightrope upon getting the NW winds, to being the showers, but also keeping the coldest air.

If for example the GFS 06HZ were to come off, then snow showers/snow streamer for prone areas, may well become established for a time towards next weekend. There is also a sign for a front with associated mild sector to push south, which is always fun.

However there is a very fine line, and things can easily go wrong, even the previous GFS 00HZ didn't look half as good.

There one difference from our normal set up jack one normally we got Hp sitting over ireland ,but we got a LP sitting over the irish sea this makes this weather situation extremley interesting , could be very snowy for some!

[Cymro]

Well we still have large snow patches here in the Amman Valley so some places have had snow lying for a month that is certainly something.

[andymusic]

Well we still have large snow patches here in the Amman Valley so some places have had snow lying for a month that is certainly something.

we have a couple of snow shoes left - not much though!

[andymusic]

Joe B has spoken - seems the cold will now return end of this week (which is what the models are showing anyway) - possible snow overnight now thursday into friday for Wales GFS 12z (precip will be firmed upon nearer the time) - further snow potential into saturday in Wales also!

Edited January 24, 2010 by andymusic

[alijoe]

Joe B has spoken - seems the cold will now return end of this week (which is what the models are showing anyway) - possible snow overnight now thursday into friday for Wales GFS 12z (precip will be firmed upon nearer the time) - further snow potential into saturday in Wales also!

Good olde Joe B..... fingers crossed..

[J10]

Joe B has spoken - seems the cold will now return end of this week (which is what the models are showing anyway) - possible snow overnight now thursday into friday for Wales GFS 12z (precip will be firmed upon nearer the time) - further snow potential into saturday in Wales also!

GFS 12Hz gives probable rain for Wales into Friday due to the increased milder sector. However UKMO has everything further west so less marginal.

But things can change. The general theme though is very promising though.

[andymusic]

GFS 12Hz gives probable rain for Wales into Friday due to the increased milder sector. However UKMO has everything further west so less marginal.

But things can change. The general theme though is very promising though.

could well be nowcasting then - the precip is forecast overnight - and temps look close to ok - we will only know 24hrs out really

[welshwizard]

counrtyfile just showed snow for west wales on friday and getting colder with north winds tidy lol

[TonyH]

counrtyfile just showed snow for west wales on friday and getting colder with north winds tidy lol

Yes, but strange that 8c max over SW Wales Friday too, no snow if that the temp, perhaps they showed the wrong temp given its a northerly.

[andymusic]

Yes, but strange that 8c max over SW Wales Friday too, no snow if that the temp, perhaps they showed the wrong temp given its a northerly.

rushed forecast - won't be 8c with a screaming northerly - no way!

[andymusic]

This morning's latest GFS 06z - still showing snow for thursday - friday

[Stevetynant]

This morning's latest GFS 06z - still showing snow for thursday - friday

What part of Wales are you talking about Andy - Will S Wales be affected again or is this more a Westerly feature?

[andymusic]

What part of Wales are you talking about Andy - Will S Wales be affected again or is this more a Westerly feature?

At the moment there is precip showing thursday into friday - it could be marginal due to a warm sector - meaning rain/sleet/snow - too early really to tell but it's looking like we'll have something then snow likely further east and rain more likely further west - although there may be a backedge snow feature to this also! - interesting feature starting to show up for sunday night into monday now aswell - an atlantic north westerly frontal system with it's own atlantic pm air embedded could well deliver some snow into monday morning for wales!

[Marcus_surfer]

Round 2 of the Snow ahead?