Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[andymusic]

Andy moved to east uk because they forecaste a fair bit of snow there sunday.

Wish I could but I would only be able to afford a toilet over in the east with the price of property - and I'd probably have to have 10 x my salary and a 125% mortgage to afford that!

I love your optomism (even though I can't spell it), I believe as long as you do..... fingers crossed. lol

It's not far away Ali - cold is all around - reminds me of a song - "Love Actually" film Bill Nigh - "SNOW is all around" - "Love is all around" - might be a bit delayed but the cold is there - Joe B seems to have taken a little time off lately - his blog has been strangely quiet since last saturday - but he is a pro weather forecaster trying to save his all important stuff for the guys who pay him well for his words of wisdom - I'm sure we'll hear something from him very shortly!

I get the feeling we're not really sure the direction of the weather is because all 3 major models are fighting amongst themselves about which solution to choose for our future weather - they just can't agree - I think this just means it's so complex - the computers are having paddys/tantrums and throwing out any old scenarios for now until the pattern change they all agree on becomes clearer! - I'm sure this will happen fairly shortly and will probably take everyone by surprise!

[Liza Baker]

Hi this is my first ever post on a weather forum. I would like to say that I would just love a bit more snow as long as I can still get to work.

By the way, this is Andy music's girlfriend, so he's in for a shock now, so please go easy on him.

[pyrotech]

Wish I could but I would only be able to afford a toilet over in the east with the price of property - and I'd probably have to have 10 x my salary and a 125% mortgage to afford that!

It's not far away Ali - cold is all around - reminds me of a song - "Love Actually" film Bill Nigh - "SNOW is all around" - "Love is all around" - might be a bit delayed but the cold is there - Joe B seems to have taken a little time off lately - his blog has been strangely quiet since last saturday - but he is a pro weather forecaster trying to save his all important stuff for the guys who pay him well for his words of wisdom - I'm sure we'll hear something from him very shortly!

I get the feeling we're not really sure the direction of the weather is because all 3 major models are fighting amongst themselves about which solution to choose for our future weather - they just can't agree - I think this just means it's so complex - the computers are having paddys/tantrums and throwing out any old scenarios for now until the pattern change they all agree on becomes clearer! - I'm sure this will happen fairly shortly and will probably take everyone by surprise!

yes cold is still in Europe and so its never too far away. A cold Europe is a huge starting block for the uk.

Now the models

Well the best model for a deep cold in Wales is the ECM but its well in Fi and i am not convinced on the way it gets there.

GFS looks more realistic in Fi but not as good for cold for us in Wales.

Now the ECM is the more reliable model but every model has its off times.

what is for sure is that this cold has been very stubborn and has not pushed far away and on occasions tries to push back.

I will come back when i see something interesting for WALES in the models.

I try not to give false hope and good unbiased forecasts so with the modells struggling with the block v atlantic i will not go far into fi. As someone said in the quote there will probably be a few last minute surprises

Edited January 21, 2010 by pyrotech

[pyrotech]

Hi this is my first ever post on a weather forum. I would like to say that I would just love a bit more snow as long as I can still get to work.

By the way, this is Andy music's girlfriend, so he's in for a shock now, so please go easy on him.

Welcome to the forum Liza, it does get like a mad house in here at times but its fun ( sometimes)

[djwayne]

Hi Liza,

Now you know where Andy spends all his time

Welcome to the forum

[DeepSnow]

Its foggy here today, the weather i like the least but still looking foward to next month as im sure we will see something, as just most feb's in the last 10 years i've lived here has given us atleast 1 good snow event, so i am hopeful.

Does anyone know when the long range weather forecast will be updated?

Edit: fog has gone now, sun trying to get through the cloud, new thermometer came today, currently the one on the weather station says 10.2C, the new one in the shade on the shed says its 11C so going with the new one!

Edited January 22, 2010 by Deepsnow

[andymusic]

Its foggy here today, the weather i like the least but still looking foward to next month as im sure we will see something, as just most feb's in the last 10 years i've lived here has given us atleast 1 good snow event, so i am hopeful.

Does anyone know when the long range weather forecast will be updated?

Edit: fog has gone now, sun trying to get through the cloud, new thermometer came today, currently the one on the weather station says 10.2C, the new one in the shade on the shed says its 11C so going with the new one!

BBQ weather then!!!!!!!!!!

[DeepSnow]

BBQ weather then!!!!!!!!!!

Deffo, a balmy 12.1c now, might go and sunbathe soon

[alijoe]

Wish I could but I would only be able to afford a toilet over in the east with the price of property - and I'd probably have to have 10 x my salary and a 125% mortgage to afford that!

It's not far away Ali - cold is all around - reminds me of a song - "Love Actually" film Bill Nigh - "SNOW is all around" - "Love is all around" - might be a bit delayed but the cold is there - Joe B seems to have taken a little time off lately - his blog has been strangely quiet since last saturday - but he is a pro weather forecaster trying to save his all important stuff for the guys who pay him well for his words of wisdom - I'm sure we'll hear something from him very shortly!

I get the feeling we're not really sure the direction of the weather is because all 3 major models are fighting amongst themselves about which solution to choose for our future weather - they just can't agree - I think this just means it's so complex - the computers are having paddys/tantrums and throwing out any old scenarios for now until the pattern change they all agree on becomes clearer! - I'm sure this will happen fairly shortly and will probably take everyone by surprise!

Bet joe B is ski=ing or toboggoning or digging his volvo out somewhere.... lol Yes I peek into the model discussions (it virtually always goes straight over my head and nothing ever goes into the brain) it is sooooo complicated. Just looked again and it seems to be the opposite now, guess you can never tell though.... i still believe. lol

Hi this is my first ever post on a weather forum. I would like to say that I would just love a bit more snow as long as I can still get to work.

By the way, this is Andy music's girlfriend, so he's in for a shock now, so please go easy on him.

lol, hello andy musics girlfriend..... hi liza how do you put up with him? always on here I mean. lol

You keep him on his toes.

[keithlucky]

Bet joe B is ski=ing or toboggoning or digging his volvo out somewhere.... lol Yes I peek into the model discussions (it virtually always goes straight over my head and nothing ever goes into the brain) it is sooooo complicated. Just looked again and it seems to be the opposite now, guess you can never tell though.... i still believe. lol

Trouble is 90 percent of the model readers are confused best thing to do is go to met pressure charts and follow that,most of the time the models 4 or 5 days ahead are wrong anyway. Edited January 22, 2010 by keithlucky

[Liza Baker]

I'm really glad to have found this forum. I don't know much of the "weather speak" just yet, and so I'm still asking Andrew to tell me what half the words mean.

Thank you for making me feel welcome, I will try not to let the side down.

[Elnonio]

Hi this is my first ever post on a weather forum. I would like to say that I would just love a bit more snow as long as I can still get to work.

By the way, this is Andy music's girlfriend, so he's in for a shock now, so please go easy on him.

Hi Liza, Croeso.

[andymusic]

Seems the meto and BBC are going for an easterly all next week (not the best direction for us to get snow unless an atlantic low comes in from the south west) - weird thing is the models really aren't showing this right now - so - theories -

The Meto/BBC are using a brand new computer model we don't know about!

The Meto/BBC have taken on a new tea boy and allowed him to come up with the forecasts!

The Meto/BBC have sacked a few of their old scientists and taken on some new ones and are now getting forecasts correct!

The Meto/BBC have decided to try other forms of forecasting such as a gypsy reading a crystal ball!

I'm only saying this because as from this week - last wednesday's snow was forecast as a warning five days before it happened and it was a marginal event - this sort of forecasting has never even happened before with the meto in such detail with such confidence - before this they were floundering all over the place so something has changed - and this insistence that we are having an easterly all this week seems very over confident considering the models we can see are not showing this!

[Elnonio]

Seems the meto and BBC are going for an easterly all next week (not the best direction for us to get snow unless an atlantic low comes in from the south west) - weird thing is the models really aren't showing this right now - so - theories -

The Meto/BBC are using a brand new computer model we don't know about!

The Meto/BBC have taken on a new tea boy and allowed him to come up with the forecasts!

The Meto/BBC have sacked a few of their old scientists and taken on some new ones and are now getting forecasts correct!

The Meto/BBC have decided to try other forms of forecasting such as a gypsy reading a crystal ball!

I'm only saying this because as from this week - last wednesday's snow was forecast as a warning five days before it happened and it was a marginal event - this sort of forecasting has never even happened before with the meto in such detail with such confidence - before this they were floundering all over the place so something has changed - and this insistence that we are having an easterly all this week seems very over confident considering the models we can see are not showing this!

Maybe they've borrowed MrMonopoly's pendulum?!!

[alijoe]

Maybe they've borrowed MrMonopoly's pendulum?!!

lol well let hope it can bring some snow....I am bored without the snow now.

[andymusic]

lol well let hope it can bring some snow....I am bored without the snow now.

Sorry Ali - seems it looks like there may be a delay on this snow - unless something miraculous happens over the next 24 - 48 hours - Joe B has been very quiet - I'm wondering if the meto have him working for them now (making him too busy for him to post his blog) - paying customers you see - well may be a little more patience is required for now - we will have snow I'm sure once again before this winter is finished with us! have faith!

[alijoe]

Sorry Ali - seems it looks like there may be a delay on this snow - unless something miraculous happens over the next 24 - 48 hours - Joe B has been very quiet - I'm wondering if the meto have him working for them now (making him too busy for him to post his blog) - paying customers you see - well may be a little more patience is required for now - we will have snow I'm sure once again before this winter is finished with us! have faith!

Yes you could well be right. I will keep singing the Take That song Patience,,,, You keep singing Snow is all around us and we should all do a snow dance.....that should sort it. lol I would like snow for my sons birthday on the 22nd Feb if possible, so will keep everything crossed.

[keithlucky]

Seems the meto and BBC are going for an easterly all next week (not the best direction for us to get snow unless an atlantic low comes in from the south west) - weird thing is the models really aren't showing this right now - so - theories -

The Meto/BBC are using a brand new computer model we don't know about!

The Meto/BBC have taken on a new tea boy and allowed him to come up with the forecasts!

The Meto/BBC have sacked a few of their old scientists and taken on some new ones and are now getting forecasts correct!

The Meto/BBC have decided to try other forms of forecasting such as a gypsy reading a crystal ball!

I'm only saying this because as from this week - last wednesday's snow was forecast as a warning five days before it happened and it was a marginal event - this sort of forecasting has never even happened before with the meto in such detail with such confidence - before this they were floundering all over the place so something has changed - and this insistence that we are having an easterly all this week seems very over confident considering the models we can see are not showing this!

I think andy you will find the meto correct this weeks forecaste with a threat of bbc pulling there plug on there contract, i think you find meto having put in greater effort and time into there forecast,theres nothing like the threat of joblosses to improve job performance.

[andymusic]

I think andy you will find the meto correct this weeks forecaste with a threat of bbc pulling there plug on there contract, i think you find meto having put in greater effort and time into there forecast,theres nothing like the threat of joblosses to improve job performance.

I think you're making a lot of sense there - pressure to get things right increases performance!

[Bobby]

I think people are seeing what they want to see. There will be no prolonged or snowy easterly next week. A brief 24hr dry cloudy one with a few flurries in the East but nothing more than that. Let's be realistic.

I'm wrong then I'll eat my hat but pretty sure it's a non event. The Northerly afterwards might be more interesting however.

[andymusic]

I think people are seeing what they want to see. There will be no prolonged or snowy easterly next week. A brief 24hr dry cloudy one with a few flurries in the East but nothing more than that. Let's be realistic.

I'm wrong then I'll eat my hat but pretty sure it's a non event. The Northerly afterwards might be more interesting however.

You'd better have a word with the meto/bbc then - as they think there's more to it than that!

[top data]

her is a look at a super high res radar

but only. half res they take so much computing power to output its crazy

[keithlucky]

I think andy you will find the meto correct this weeks forecaste with a threat of bbc pulling there plug on there contract, i think you find meto having put in greater effort and time into there forecast,theres nothing like the threat of joblosses to improve job performance.

Plus as you said theres been a remarkable improvement in there weather forecaste the last few weeks.

[Jamie.]

Even if there is a dry north/easterly wind, that'll do... get the cold air in and then when a front eventually arrives from the south/west we're sorted <_<.

[top data]

wow check out the diffrence

from low res to high owesome