Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

Major snows over the weekend forecasted if the GFS 18z comes off - it pushes the front due over us thursday into friday and then back over us saturday/sunday and then holds the front over wales from then on - snowing continously!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lol....what are our chances of snow wednesday mate?

[andymusic]

Lol....what are our chances of snow wednesday mate?

Right now only looks like transitional snow especially over higher ground - but the way the high to the east is going right now - it's upgrading our snow potential and cold with every model run - models seem to be underestimating the blocking high and the easterly cold - seems this is where our cold is now possibly gonna come from next!

You got a much better chance now for sunday morning onwards if the 18z pans out - but the proviso is that the high in the east doesn't change in a big way between now and then and right now the high just seems to be getting stronger and stronger with every run so quite possibly if wednesday's front don't get us there's every possibililty the next front thursday/friday with the deeper embedded cold from the east may well do

Edited January 18, 2010 by andymusic

[Elnonio]

Major snows over the weekend forecasted if the GFS 18z comes off - it pushes the front due over us thursday into friday and then back over us saturday/sunday and then holds the front over wales from then on - snowing continously!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will believe it when I see it!! Met office for Wed/Thurs doesn't seem to make much sense and forecasts don't back it up. Where can I get this GFS 18z ?? And more to the point - is it free?! And even more to the point - is it right !!!!?

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - what a snowfest - could be very interesting - only a trend - and even some of them stupid low low low temps!!!!!!!!! - something's brewing!!!!!!!!!!

You can get the GFS viewer on this site but I use

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html

I will believe it when I see it!! Met office for Wed/Thurs doesn't seem to make much sense and forecasts don't back it up. Where can I get this GFS 18z ?? And more to the point - is it free?! And even more to the point - is it right !!!!?

Wednesday's snow for cardiff doesn't look on - only high ground beacons - heads of the valleys - it's the next front that looks more interesting as the high in the east is building in strength!!!!!!!!! - increasing the cold and changing any precip to snow

Edited January 18, 2010 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

Don't think so for cardiff - too near the coast on this one - but the easterly high is defo getting closer and influencing our weather more and more!

I'm north Cardiff with a bit of elevation lol, maybe i have a chance.

[Bobby]

Cardiff isn't the ideal place but it's so marginal it could go either way. Upper valleys and Mid Wales especially high ground look like the prime spot at this stage I'd say.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Cardiff isn't the ideal place but it's so marginal it could go either way. Upper valleys and Mid Wales especially high ground look like the prime spot at this stage I'd say.

I'll take a listen to red dragon fm tomorrow afternoon.....they got it right last week when they said 6 inches for Cardiff.

[andymusic]

I'm north Cardiff with a bit of elevation lol, maybe i have a chance.

I wouldn't get your hopes up - yet anyway - see what the models bring tomorrow - this will go right to the wire - the easterly is making more and more progress like a big lumbering unstoppable monster - so, tomorrows models may bring more info into the game regarding the latest progged temps for wednesday which will tell us whether it be snow or rain - but right now I think rain for cardiff!

[Bobby]

The NMM goes for snow into the valleys too... very marginal though.

[top data]

right then we the big fight live

entering the ring we have cold snow from the east.

we have warm rain from the west battle drawn .

who will win rain or snow . u decide

[J10]

In many ways the set-up is very similar to last week. As an example, look at the FAX Chart.

Very similar to last week.

However the temps over Wales are far higher higher than they were last week, and there is no or not much lying snow. As a result conditions are set to be much more marginal, snow is likely to be restricted perhaps to the valleys and Mid Wales northwards. The general event may well be closer in reality to the event on Tuesday 29th December rather than last week.

I also think that for many coastal areas, it will not even be marginal and that straight rain is likely.

However on a brighter note, I do sense that any return to milder conditions and Atlantic dominance is being downgraded steadily by the models.

[andymusic]

right then we the big fight live

entering the ring we have cold snow from the east.

we have warm rain from the west battle drawn .

who will win rain or snow . u decide

In the blue corner(flippin cold here) - we have the siberian high

In the red corner - we have the atlantic mild mush

FIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[keithlucky]

M fish was right ko mild mush by the Beast from the east.

[top data]

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales on Wednesday.

Outbreaks of rain are expected to turn increasingly to sleet or wet snow, with local accumulations of 2 to 5cm. Over some central parts of England and east Wales, there is a risk of up to 10cm of snow.

im sure we will have it pined tomorow

but it so hard to call it shocking

puding head

[top data]

oh their going for it now crazy

[top data]

frz level 600m looks good.

but how far can the the snow fall through u air temp.

what att is the snow line going to be loose

[matty lfc]

I still think this snow event is being overplayed by the meto.The tops of the Beacons may get 5-10cms but even at my height i just dont think the ground temps are cold enough for any wet snow to stick,certainly not enough to cause the "disruption" we had last week.

Hope im wrong but this just hasn't get a very good feel about it,in my opinion.

Still expect bread and milk to be sold out by noon today,though,in fact i think this latest snowcast is sponsored by Hovis:D

[A_T]

Updated METO advisory is now only for the eastern half of Wales.

[matty lfc]

I still think this a top end Beacons event but just came back from walking the dog and it's a lot cooler today than the past few days.

[andymusic]

I still think this a top end Beacons event but just came back from walking the dog and it's a lot cooler today than the past few days.

yep I would agree with that - yesterday 10 - 11c , today 5 - 6c so a big difference - those easterly winds are biting - looks like the freezer for us once again - who knows how severe it'll be this time! - time to get those supplies in just in case the snows restrict movement again!

[Jayfromcardiff]

This looks like a high ground event tbh.....Brecon should do well out of this.

[andymusic]

This looks like a high ground event tbh.....Brecon should do well out of this.

Yep - Cardiff no but mid valleys north could well do well

[Bobby]

Hmm I think will be a non event apart from on the highest ground. Just on the wrong side of marginal. But we'll see, probably come down to looking out of the window.

[Jayfromcardiff]

LOL the forecast then on bbc, he said initially above 200-300cm hahaha.

[andymusic]

LOL the forecast then on bbc, he said initially above 200-300cm hahaha.

Think they get just as excited about things as we do and gabble their words - looks like all the meto local forecasters jobs might be on the line if it's true about the bbc looking for another main forecaster because of all the mistakes they've made recently!