Model Output Discussion

[bluearmy]

the 12z NAEFS update shows us really close to something of note later next week. if we can retrogress the pattern just a couple of hundred miles, we are bang in the middle of the atlantic trough meeting the continental se flow. i presume thats what is getting the metmen excited but at the moment the NAEFS shows this just too far east. if we could get the ecm into this model, i guess with its keener retrogressive tendency at present, that would probably do it.

i have been harping on about getting the trough east of the meridian. the T384 charts from NEAFS shows whats possible if we do:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=1&mode=1&map=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=1&mode=0&map=1

almost a scandi trough but defo an iceland/greeny high.

of course its a long way off but it shows where the GEFS/CMC ens are currently headed as we lose the influence of the siberian high into week 2.

[shuggee]

New thread for discussing the model outputs over the coming runs :unsure:

[yamkin]

New thread for discussing the model outputs over the coming runs :unsure:

The '1045' to the East is really forming well. I noticed Roger J and TEITS have commented on this. GFS 18Z 72h is very similar to ECM 12Z 72h

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Yes it is, but for how long? How's the pub run looking?

Minor changes so far, if anything slightly more of an se feed but only slightly

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

are my eyes deceiving me? Or is that trough starting to become negatively tilted?

The T108 Pub run, have to wait for a few more to come out

[Richie V]

Yes it is, but for how long? How's the pub run looking?

Upto 111 hrs quite unsettled and MUCH milder than we've been used to.

[len]

Must say I don't get all this excitement about a Siberian High. It's called a "Siberian" High because that's where it lives.

It's there virtually all of most winters (and people are always pinning hopes on them).

But there is always cold to our North in the Arctic (and it gets here a lot quicker when it decides to come).

And yes the Siberian pressure is very often over 1050.

The looming situation is worrying because it is all to threatening of a very familiar , and very stable, pattern. Large Siberian High + South Greenland PV.

(It's not quite the usual yet)

Perhaps there will be an Easterly, but the ones that limp here over weeks usually land up very lame affairs and just because it's there, don't mean squat that it's headed this way.

Same goes for the split jet. Personally I believe we've had these very rare oldtime synoptics of late precisely because at last we had a Southerly unitary jet.

Bifurcated jets to our West have plagued us with dreary raw faux cold & returning TM air in recent winters and to our East they send winter into Greece and the Levant with tastes of faux cold for us

[Snowstorm1]

18z at t132 looks like going for an easterly as the lines are from the east now watch this come ( if it doesnt were can i buy hats to eat? )

WOW at 144 what battleground :lol: Never in my 14years on this planet have i seen anything like this :o

[PB22]

An absolute classic battleground situation at T+150 on the 18Z GFS:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1502.html

[cold snap]

Crazy 18Z

True fight going on

Mild then Easterly then Mild then Easterly.in not joking its crazy stuff.

Epic model watching.

Models not sure who will win.might be a draw.

[yamkin]

Just look at the battle ground West v East. GFS 18Z 144h is very similar to ECM 12Z 144 :lol:

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

An absolute classic battleground situation at T+150 on the 18Z GFS:

http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn1501.html

http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn1502.html

The uppers dont look that cold, nor is the 528dam over us yet. IF this was to be correct would the white stuff be reserved for higher parts only?

[danm]

are my eyes deceiving me? Or is that trough starting to become negatively tilted?

The T108 Pub run, have to wait for a few more to come out

With such deep areas of low pressure to our NW and North, any easterly is going to struggle to stay around. We need higher pressure over Greenland and to our NW, or that High, if it does drift west, will quickly sink into mainland Europe.

[Frosty.]

An absolute classic battleground situation at T+150 on the 18Z GFS:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1502.html

They call it the pub run for a very good reason. :lol:

[Weather-history]

Something to watch is the March 1996 scenario, Atlantic systems moved in from west, gave rain but colder air began to undecut from east and as a result it turned increasingly to snow and moved back westwards. That wasn't picked up by the Countryfile forecast even though it was only 2 or 3 days out.

[PB22]

The uppers dont look that cold, nor is the 528dam over us yet. IF this was to be correct would the white stuff be reserved for higher parts only?

Hard to tell at this range, but it doesn't look very warm at the surface:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn14417.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn15017.html

Looks relatively brief though as the Atlantic returns towards the end of the high resolution part of the run:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

[shuggee]

Soooo close for some thick cold from the east in the T+150/T+160s. This is going to run and run for a few days yet :lol:

[nick sussex]

This gfs run clearly shows why next week is looking at present like an impossible forecast! Lots of very cold air over Europe trying to head west,the gfs 18hrs run holds low pressure for longer over southern Europe here and this helps the cold further west. Still though the Atlantic is desperate to edge eastwards. At some point somethings got to give, so you'll either see the trough disrupt sending a shortwave se'wards or the block will be pushed further east.

[Paul White.]

The '1045' to the East is really forming well. I noticed Roger J and TEITS have commented on this. GFS 18Z 72h is very similar to ECM 12Z 72h

upto 140hrs on the gfs 18z and the waa is very evident over towards iceland heights buiding well to the north east in my ltd view should help to pull the easterly close to the east coast and beyond.

[Duane S.]

That is some serious posturing going on to our east and to our west! And stuck slap bang in the middle is liddle old us! :lol:

The phase 'stuck in no-mans land' really does sum this up. BUT... we could be thrown fairly rapidly from this interim state straight into warm South/South Westerlies should the PV not play ball. Conversely, we could end up on the receiving end of that monster sized HP if things do swing our way!

Great model watching days!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The point of all this is, as I said earlier this evening before going off to do the tea - the atlantic return is still at t168 and beyond. The GFS 18z has put back the edging in of this from the 12z. Plus the ECM does not give support to a sw'erly return and seeks to send lows on a southerly track. The jet can't get over the block, so it might well try to go underneath it again. And that helps back the high westwards.

To repeat what was said at 6.30pm - this isn't over yet.

[yamkin]

This gfs run clearly shows why next week is looking at present like an impossible forecast! Lots of very cold air over Europe trying to head west,the gfs 18hrs run holds low pressure for longer over southern Europe here and this helps the cold further west. Still though the Atlantic is desperate to edge eastwards. At some point somethings got to give, so you'll either see the trough disrupt sending a shortwave se'wards or the block will be pushed further east.

NS, ECM has set the trend and GFS 18Z has started to follow suit. GFS 18Z 144h is similar to ECM 12Z 144h. Do you think GFS is being too progressive with the Atlantic pushing in? GFS IMO usually does this quite often.

I'm not that surprised in the GFS playing catch up. Very interesting model times ahead.

[PB22]

Just so people aren't totally mislead, the Atlantic actually returns tomorrow with wind and rain sweeping across all parts in the next 24 -48 hours:

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack0.html

http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack0a.html

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack1.html

http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack1a.html

[shuggee]

The point of all this is, as I said earlier this evening before going off to do the tea - the atlantic return is still at t168 and beyond.

The couple of people living north of Birmingham would disagree with that from Saturday.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just so people aren't mislead, the Atlantic actually returns tomorrow with wind and rain sweeping across all parts in the next 24 -48 hours:

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack0.html

http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack0a.html

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack1.html

http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack1a.html

I think it is taken for granted that we are talking about next week. Unecessary post. Please stop deliberate nitpicking.