Model Output Discussion

[cuckoo]

A real battle between the Icelandic Low and Siberian High.

Fear that we will just be too far to the west and will remain under the influence of the Icelandic low whilst large areas of north / central continental Europe reap the rewards of the Easterly (unless the low tilts SE / NW allowing the high to ridge further west).

Alot of talk about the pressure of the high over Eurasia and i notice from some description about the Siberian high that it is often above 1040mbar so not particularly unusual, it has developed pressures in excess of 1080mbar in the past!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The couple of people living north of Birmingham would disagree with that from Saturday.

Ditto answer within the context of the east vs west battle next week.....

[Paul White.]

FI I know but surly the eye candy chart of the day. 324hrs gfs 18z.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Much better 18z but i think the models are struggling badly regarding next week.

Small changes can have huge effects,i dont think we are going to get the beast right now but one had to acknowledge that things can change very quickly.

[PB22]

I think it is taken for granted that we are talking about next week. Unecessary post. Please stop deliberate nitpicking.

You said the Atlantic doesn't return until next week, which is not true. It returns tomorrow which is perfectly valid to the model output discussion, otherwise some people may think there's no wind and rain to come for some time yet. You can't assume everyone knows what we are talking about.

[nick sussex]

NS, ECM has set the trend and GFS 18Z has started to follow suit. GFS 18Z 144h is similar to ECM 12Z 144h. Do you think GFS is being too progressive with the Atlantic pushing in? GFS IMO usually does this quite often.

I'm not that surprised in the GFS playing catch up. Very interesting model times ahead.

As we've seen from the gfs it goes from one extreme to the other,and because of this I just don't trust it with blocking patterns.It does have a progressive nature but even allowing for that theres no guarantee the block to the east no matter how big and strong will ridge far enough west. I've seen many frustrating scenarios played out with all the fun and games irritatingly close to the UK over in the Low Countries!

I suppose you could say that the recent spell of weather has broken the UK jinx, if you go with current form then you'd think maybe it will fall right again and the UKMO fax chart for 120hrs certainly raises a little interest! I think we'll need a few more days of output if the stalemate continues.

[yamkin]

FI I know but surly the eye candy chart of the day. 324hrs gfs 18z.

To follow from FI GFS 18Z 324h, just look at this breath-taking GFS 18Z 384h 500hpa & 850hpa. If this materialises, I wonder if the High to the North of the UK will help the low to the SW under cut further South? If so, the East has an amazing cold feed ready to approach the UK

Edited January 14, 2010 by yamkin

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

You said the Atlantic doesn't return until next week, which is not true. It returns tomorrow which is perfectly valid to the model output discussion, otherwise some people may think there's no wind and rain to come for some time yet. You can't assume everyone knows what we are talking about.

For those who haven't read either mine own repeated posts earlier that have been perfectly clear (I would hope) I am referring to next week.

For Paul B's benefit I apologise for tripping up.

[damianslaw]

Short term - the atlantic is finally winning the battle so to speak, but temps are only going to be average for much of the country away from the west.

Next week sees us locked in the battle zone between the atlantic desparately wanting to crash into Scandanavia at the same time with a massive block to the east trying desparately to advect our way. In these situations its a very tough call on what the likely outcome is.

We could easily see a shortwave develop and get sent south eastwards which would pull in the easterlies at least for a short time. Alternatively we see will maintain conditions that we are going to get this weekend.

Longer term, signs of renewed northerly blocking, but this time to our NW again, with the energy in the jet transferring more fully to the south again. So if the easterly doesn't truely develop, any return of the atlantic on a SW flow will I feel be quickly converted into a colder unsettled spell triggered possibly by a southerly tracking low pressure and consequent height rises to the North West, for those holding onto hopes of a deep easterly blast and further cold and snow in the longer term a return of the atlantic in the short term may not be a bad thing..

Interesting how the BBC today on some forecasts were saying mm next week is looking cold, though Rob McWellee refrained from doing so, has this cold spell tired even Rob!

[rbw]

I think it is taken for granted that we are talking about next week. Unecessary post. Please stop deliberate nitpicking.

Definately not taken for granted - I knew it returned tomorrow and was puzzled to see it being suggested that the return was delayed

[cooling climate]

At the moment know one can say for certain what will happen next week with the

synoptics so finely balanced at the moment.

I would like to think the Met with their wealth of information and data at hand compared to

us plus their more expert knowledge will be able to give a more educated guess, but at the

end of the day that is still all it would be, a guess.

Extremely fascinating though.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Definately not taken for granted - I knew it returned tomorrow and was puzzled to see it being suggested that the return was delayed

Once again I apologise - I'm really not sure what else I can add.

Tomorrow will give clues as to how next weeks battle lines are drawn by the models. Night all

Edited January 14, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[fine wine]

Just so people aren't totally mislead, the Atlantic actually returns tomorrow with wind and rain sweeping across all parts in the next 24 -48 hours:

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack0.html

http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack0a.html

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack1.html

http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack1a.html

Very good point Paul - its easy to think that this cold spell is going to continue but there is going to be a blip over the next few days. It will be interesting to see how this Atlantic weather feels after such a long period of cold blocked weather with virtually no wind.Also looking forward to some slightly wild weather.

[Richard Lake]

Well having just watched the excellent Michael Fish forecast courtesy of NetWeather I feel reassured that an Easterly of sorts will be returning to our shores once the weekend is over with. I wish people would stop saying Mild temperatures as from what I have seen from various forecasts is that it will just be average for the time of year only the SW with its 'very own climate' will reach 8+c which is only a tad above average.

Just a little point I'd like to mention is that I use the AccuWeather service on my iMac's Dashboard and it has shown -1c Daytime for my location for over 3 days now - which to me is below average not at all Mild!

The main focus from a model watching PoV will be watching how well the High over Northern Europe will battle against the Atlantic keen to move in. By Saturday evening I am sure we will know who the winner will be, but TBH from reading GP's observation in the In-Depth thread I don't think there will be a winner. Rather than above average temperatures vs below average temperatures I think what will we see as we move into next week is simply average temperature with possible light snowfall over higher ground, sleet for most with snizzle in Eastern coastal locations.

Well thats my two cents.

Edited January 14, 2010 by rikki

[Tom D]

Anyone else getting the feeling that we're going to be in 'battleground' territory for more than a few days?

The ensembles and long range charts show mild then cold, then mild, then cold.

You could say we've been in a battle since Tuesday, with the first Atlantic low for a long while bringing snow. The next one look like rain for most but after that, possibly some more snow again.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The point of all this is, as I said earlier this evening before going off to do the tea - the atlantic return is still at t168 and beyond.

Hi Tamara. I know I'm not very good at reading models, but it looks to me like we'll be under an Atlantic influence as early as tomorrow.

[shuggee]

For those who haven't read either mine own repeated posts earlier that have been perfectly clear (I would hope) I am referring to next week.

For Paul B's benefit I apologise for tripping up.

lol nice one Tamara. I did wonder what you were on about!

Indeed - there's no certainty as posters have been stating regarding say, Wednesday onwards. It's tooing and froing, Atlantic flow - continental flow with every run.

Perhaps our fate throughout will be to sit in the middle until there's a pattern change to something else completely!

[Paul White.]

To follow from FI GFS 18Z 324h, just look at this breath-taking GFS 18Z 384h 500hpa & 850hpa. If this materialises, I wonder if the High to the North of the UK will help the low to the SW under cut further South? If so, the East has an amazing cold feed ready to approach the UK

I think we need to be carefull though about posting charts that far out 300 hrs + I have been lurking here for the last 6 years and my Mrs thinks that I am a saddo geek for the weather but after all it is the model output thread and I suppose the charts that we have just posted are relivent to the thread and could occur. I wonder if the GFS has picked up northern blocking signal for the end of Jan into feb maybe to program knows that blocking normally occurs within Feb.

[Don]

Interesting how the BBC today on some forecasts were saying mm next week is looking cold, though Rob McWellee refrained from doing so, has this cold spell tired even Rob!

He did say though that the cold might return next week when he was talking about the cold conditions persisting over Europe.

All in all very interesting at the mo. I think we certainly need some luck regarding next week to get that cold back our way! All to play for.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi Tamara. I know I'm not very good at reading models, but it looks to me like we'll be under an Atlantic influence as early as tomorrow.

Well you are obviosuly learning then aren't you.

Predictably, I thought you might jump on the goading train

I'm out of here before you succeed

[Cloud 10]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Some interesting discussion on the noaa update.Looks like some severe weather to come over in the states.

[Derp Patrol]

Hmm I wonder what 8C will feel like? back to average temperatures for this weekend for most, it may feel like early Spring almost after the cold weather of late

[PB22]

The 12z ECM ensembles for London have just come out:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

Plenty of scatter beyond the 20th, but the operational wasn't too far from the mean.

[johnholmes]

Tamara and others

the problem is quite easily solved-simply say exactly what time scale you are referring to-thus T+24 shows such and such and by T+xx it shows such and such then even mutt heads such as myself can understand what you are talking about.

Why do we have to have this almost constant niggling at one another.

For gawds sake its only each of our interpretations of weather models anyway. Sometimes we get it right, or rather the model does, sometimes we get it wrong.

Lets try and be polite to one another shall we and help newcomers to both understand the complexities of model watching and also, as important if not more so, enjoy Net Wx.

I'm off to bed so ditch this if you wish admin/mods.

Edited January 14, 2010 by johnholmes

[nick sussex]

I think some of the behaviour in here by certain posters has been dismal and very disappointing! This nit picking and being argumentative for the sake of it especially aimed at Tamara is very poor IMO!