Model Output Discussion

[Rollo]

We even have an ice day on Sunday for some regions!

Have to say at the moment im seriously mistrusting the models even though the 06Z is showing what I want to see. However in a strange way im finding this more entertaining than if a cold spell was locked in with all models agreeing.

I really cannot remember such disagreement at such close range-it must be driving the MO mad.

[Southender]

Wow. The 06z is looking amazing thus far, insane actually.

This verifies, this place will go into meltdown.

Unlikely of course.

You have to laugh really.

Edited January 19, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Tom D]

We even have an ice day on Sunday for some regions!

Have to say at the moment im seriously mistrusting the models even though the 06Z is showing what I want to see. However in a strange way im finding this more entertaining than if a cold spell was locked in with all models agreeing.

Hi TEITS, do you think the 06z is being a bit OTT with the cold? Maybe a stupid question looking at the charts lol

Surely we can't really expect to see top temps of -3/4c next Monday? Average temps next Monday 1200 are around -5/6c for central England and Wales!

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100119/06/150/ukmaxtemp.png

Edited January 19, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[TEITS]

I really cannot remember such disagreement at such close range-it must be driving the MO mad.

Let me put it this way if the 06Z verified it would be one of the biggest turnarounds I have ever seen in the model output. When you think Monday was intially going to be mild and now the 06Z is showing upper temps of -14C in E Anglia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1622.gif

[Rollo]

Let me put it this way if the 06Z verified it would be one of the biggest turnarounds I have ever seen in the model output. When you think Monday was intially going to be mild and now the 06Z is showing upper temps of -14C in E Anglia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1622.gif

The trouble is FI is within 6 hours the way things have been recently,My bet now is for a clear win for our friendly High to our North-East.

[Southender]

Seriously, someone is on a wind up.

[TEITS]

The trouble is FI is within 6 hours the way things have been recently,My bet now is for a clear win for our friendly High to our North-East.

Yes mate the HP is the favourite at the moment. You know synoptically the 06Z isn't that much different to the 0Z. The only difference is the positioning of the blocking pulls the cold pool directly our way. Interestngly the 0Z ensembles did have a couple of members around -15C for this timeframe.

Whatever happens this is model watching at its very best.

[Southender]

Beautiful. Look at the size of that HP. If only...

Edited January 19, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[yamkin]

Wow. The 06z is looking amazing thus far, insane actually.

This verifies, this place will go into meltdown.

Unlikely of course.

You have to laugh really.

GFS 06Z has fallen in line with GEM 00Z. Maybe GEM has set the trend. Definitely interesting model watching. I wonder if ECM 12Z and UKMO 12Z follow the GEM trend as well?

[MisfitDog3]

Oh dear! I think I am getting a headache. What on earth is going on with the medium term output? It must be an input issue? Either that or something has gone spectacularly wrong in the last few days. I just don't go for the ultra cold output but quite a few of the other scenarios look half baked as well....

Might as well break out the seaweed and fir cones for all the good the models are doing at present.

[Southender]

Well. 06z has either gone completely mad (likely) or we have a seriously cold outbreak appearing like a stealth bomber, undetected, as early as Sunday!

[weather eater]

Certainly some fascinating model viewing at the moment. I must confessed my thought a couple of days back, was that we would spend quite a long period in a kind of no-mans land, stuck in a middle ground between the Atlantic and the block. This still looks likely, but only for a very short time as the odds are now on the block winning out. The only possible disappointment in an 06z style easterly set-up is that the bulk of the country will be dry or see only light snow flurries. I wonder if grit levels have recovered, because that easterly will be cold.

[D KARLSON]

Let me put it this way if the 06Z verified it would be one of the biggest turnarounds I have ever seen in the model output. When you think Monday was intially going to be mild and now the 06Z is showing upper temps of -14C in E Anglia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1622.gif

you cant rule out anything at the mo ,with very low confidence in the models past 120 hours and that can even reduce as the atlantic attempts to push in against what is near record breaking cold over east Europe and the baltic states;

and the Baltic sea is responding as it starts to freeze over for the first time since 95 96 if im right.

the thing is whatever synoptics are brougth in they are simply overlayed over what is now a frigid continent /cue wife joke/

So if you can imagine the cold air cannot be simply pushed out of the way and even if it does it reaserts itself as the cold groud interacts with the atmosphere and encourages high pressure to reform ,what you have now is climate as opposed to weather.

I th8ink as regardes further ahead towards the end of the month the ECM does a plausable guess with some resetting of patterns and a northerly over Europe and the idea of the high evenually migrating north or north west certainly interesting times and we really are being spoilt so make the most of it !!!!!!!

As far as i can see cold air will return to these shores at some point whether directly from the continent or through a resetting of the pattern as trhe ECM points out

[TEITS]

Oh dear! I think I am getting a headache. What on earth is going on with the medium term output? It must be an input issue? Either that or something has gone spectacularly wrong in the last few days. I just don't go for the ultra cold output but quite a few of the other scenarios look half baked as well....

Might as well break out the seaweed and fir cones for all the good the models are doing at present.

What I find interesting is here we are in the year 2010 with all these supercomputers and yet the same forecasting problems that occured in the 1980's are prevalant. This is why i've been constantly harping on about experience/instinct because the current pattern is causing absolute chaos in the models.

Im eagerly awaiting the GEFS ensembles. The mean for +144 on the 06Z was -5C for Cambs. I have a feeling this will drop to -7C/-8C.

[Totoro]

Certainly some fascinating model viewing at the moment. I must confessed my thought a couple of days back, was that we would spend quite a long period in a kind of no-mans land, stuck in a middle ground between the Atlantic and the block. This still looks likely, but only for a very short time as the odds are now on the block winning out. The only possible disappointment in an 06z style easterly set-up is that the bulk of the country will be dry or see only light snow flurries. I wonder if grit levels have recovered, because that easterly will be cold.

The last cold spell looked dry on the model output, but look how much snow some of us got from it. Get a decent easterly and all kinds of things are possible.

[bluearmy]

aha! So it was seagulls! I have been away in Cumbria/Northumberland recently and missed it. What sort of behaviour do said gulls exhibit when they feel El Beast is due a visit?

they cr*p all over my car!!

seriously, another day and another set of runs that bear little overall resemblance to what they showed yesterday. good job JH is in wengen though i hope he packed an extra pack of thermals for next week.

as Dave, says - a time for watching and maybe learning, though when we'll get the chance to use this experience again, i'm not sure.

[Southender]

The last cold spell looked dry on the model output, but look how much snow some of us got from it. Get a decent easterly and all kinds of things are possible.

Exactly. And this is a real Beast compared to the last one!

Let's hope it verifies. If it does, it would prove more severe than what we have already seen this winter.

I suspect it can be taken with a pinch of salt though unfortunately. If not, then Britain needs to prepare for extreme cold breaking out within 7 days!

[TEITS]

What sort of behaviour do said gulls exhibit when they feel El Beast is due a visit?

Basically the sheer number of them inland. My grandparents told me about this back in the 1980s. Apparently a great number of Seagulls moving inland from the coast means they know a cold blast is coming from the E. This is generally a well known saying in E Anglia.

I know this post is off topic but I have more faith in nature than the models at the moment!

[Southender]

Basically the sheer number of them inland. My grandparents told me about this back in the 1980s. Apparently a great number of Seagulls moving inland from the coast means they know a cold blast is coming from the E. This is generally a well known saying in E Anglia.

I know this post is off topic but I have more faith in nature than the models at the moment!

Hi Dave.

Yes, we have the same local lore down here.

And low and behold, the seagulls are swarming everywhere over the last week or so. Haven't seen this many for a long, long time...

Even attacking some of the locals!

Edited January 19, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes mate the HP is the favourite at the moment. You know synoptically the 06Z isn't that much different to the 0Z. The only difference is the positioning of the blocking pulls the cold pool directly our way. Interestngly the 0Z ensembles did have a couple of members around -15C for this timeframe.

Whatever happens this is model watching at its very best.

ive got admit im in state of shock this is just incredible i really think the models are screwed up atm but i could be wrong.

and i hope i am lol.

although if this output did happen we must remember it would be a very brief event.

but as you said pretty amazing model watching but im still skeptical because if things were a cert then were is steve m and the rest of the crew.

so until they get excited i keeping my feet on the ground later on will be very intresting it would not surprise me if there +13c and a full blown alantic onslaught lol.

[billy]

Let me put it this way if the 06Z verified it would be one of the biggest turnarounds I have ever seen in the model output. When you think Monday was intially going to be mild and now the 06Z is showing upper temps of -14C in E Anglia.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1622.gif

Wow just seen the gfs 06z and it seems similar to the GEM oz . BE very interesting when the 12z ecm and ukmo come out later. Those seagulls may just be on to something here.

[Climate Man]

ive got admit im in state of shock this is just incredible i really think the models are screwed up atm but i could be wrong.

and i hope i am lol.

although if this output did happen we must remember it would be a very brief event.

but as you said pretty amazing model watching but im still skeptical because if things were a cert then were is steve m and the rest of the crew.

so until they get excited i keeping my feet on the ground later on will be very intresting it would not surprise me if there +13c and a full blown alantic onslaught lol.

Why would it be a "very brief event" To be fair cold air has not really left us for over a month and it looks possible that this will continue and if you take the 06GFS there is no real end in sight.

[Ben_Cambs]

If only GFS 06z verified.... Astonishing to say the least, -14C Uppers for the East?!?!? Thats one strong Easterly! :lol:

[Southender]

Why would it be a "very brief event" To be fair cold air has not really left us for over a month and it looks possible that this will continue and if you take the 06GFS there is no real end in sight.

Exactly what I was going to say.

GFS 06z throws up ice days for 7 days!

[Bobby]

Wow, the 06z has thrown up the mother of all easterlies. Big cold outlier I bet though.