Model Output Discussion

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

not another eighties band reforming !!!!!

not shocked by the meto update - did you see the ecm ensembles for london ?

all hope for the easterly has evaporated ba.

Waiting game now to see if we can lose that awful pv over greeny.

Cant see any meaningful cold for the next 10 days or more at the moment.

[Frosty.]

not another eighties band reforming !!!!!

not shocked by the meto update - did you see the ecm ensembles for london ?

No not yet, are they worth looking at?

[Snowyowl9]

I was looking through the archive charts last night and went right through the whole winter of 88/89, it was simply awful apart from a cold snap in early December, i think whenever people feel too despondent about recent winters they should take a look at that, hopefully I will never see a winter like that ever again!

The 1988/89 winter was of course novembers N-ly snow followed by I`m glad you mentioned this was early december 1988 which gave 1 foot of snow wet snow no wind all small bushes/trees crushed and broken by the weight,there was water underneath this snow no frozen ground like this winter.

TWS will remember me saying this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1988/Rrea00119881203.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1988/Rrea00219881203.gif

I like to know what TM got from this as only at 150metres was the snowline around here different to this winter.

And april 1989 was the best winter month for cold by far that season and it was an E-ly goes into the top 2 april easterly cold/snow.

Edited January 17, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[yamkin]

Yep so far I feel i've been pretty objective. The only time i've suggested E,lys is back on Nov 27th for mid Dec and just after Xmas for early Jan. Obviously next week isn't going to be as I expected which is why im investing in a machine gun so I can shoot those Seagulls. :lol:

What some have to realise is I view the models differently to some people. I don't take what they say literally beyond +144. My enjoyment is trying to figure out if they are wrong and if so what is the likely pattern. The GFS back in late Nov accurately predicted the mid Dec cold spell. So why did I believe the GFS at +384 when it so often suggests cold E/N,lys. Well the answer is like I say many times, using the models is always about forecasting instinct. The mid Dec cold spell looked synoptically plausible to me which is why I said mid Dec could see a very cold spell develop. At the time I was accused of ramping and misleading members!!

I need to cheer you up TEITS. No need to buy a machine gun with these lovely GEFS Ensembles Pert' 19

[igloo]

the charts for the end of the week look fairly similar to the charts we had in the first week or so in december with pressure high in the east pressure trying to form over greenland and a euro high to our south in which the euro high started to retrogress to our north wich was the beginnings of our 4 weeks of cold weather so i would not rule out the question of a another euro high

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I need to cheer you up TEITS. No need to buy a machine gun with these lovely GEFS Ensembles Pert' 19

Winter as we know it is definitely back, people posting insane charts from distant FI from the coldest perturbation. Remember 2/3/4 weeks ago when these charts were cropping up inside 180 hours on the op?

Temps around average or slightly above for the near future:

[yamkin]

Winter as we know it is definitely back, people posting insane charts from distant FI from the coldest perturbation. Remember 2/3/4 weeks ago when these charts were cropping up inside 180 hours on the op?

Temps around average or slightly above for the near future:

I agree that winter is back. Insane charts in FI?? There are other very cold FI perturbation charts, but the ones I posted earlier are to cheer TEITS up. Not impossible for such charts to materialise.

By the way, Wednesday will have lower temps.

Edited January 17, 2010 by yamkin

[Jason T]

I need to cheer you up TEITS. No need to buy a machine gun with these lovely GEFS Ensembles Pert' 19

Blimey, thats some severe cold front. If that hits it will knock the last one for 6.

[Snowyowl9]

No not yet, are they worth looking at?

Fuzzbox were a great late 80`s band one of the best 80`s groups IMO first single aroud this time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00119890405.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00219890404.gif

I`m going off topic arn`t I. :lol:

[cooling climate]

The 12z GFS is even more progressive than the 06z in splitting the vortex by t132.

[Snowly does it]

Interesting pattern on the 12z - the PV does not look intense over GL and a lot of cool to cold air about and ridging HPs by as early as T126 - plenty of options for cold here, however also the chance of us getting caught on the wrong side of the tracks.

[igloo]

the atlantic looks like its beginning to get blocked once again withe the azores high paying a visit

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 12z good so far, the PV not that intense and splits by T+132. Those GEFS charts Yamkin showed are quite spectacular, yes its in FI but -16C Uppers in the East at T+384!

Edited January 17, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Eugene]

The mid Dec cold spell looked synoptically plausible to me which is why I said mid Dec could see a very cold spell develop. At the time I was accused of ramping and misleading members!!

Well they owe you a big apology then, you won't get one though.

Back to cold friday night, as nick sussex says if people are depressed over this coming week then they really need to look at horror shows from winters past, one brief warm sector on thursday night which moves quickly through doesnt depress me at all, if we had a week of warm TM air dominating then yes it would, nights looks pretty cold the week ahead with pressure building on friday night into the weekend.

Edited January 17, 2010 by Eugene

[weather eater]

We can really see the difference between the 12z and the 06z, by 144hrs the low in the Biscay region has been replaced by HP, a change that demonstrates just how big an impact those small differences early on make by the mid-range.

[cooling climate]

FI should be very interesting going by the blocking to the north with another very cold

pattern likely to develope.

[Eugene]

First attempt at ridging northeastwards fails but second one is successful, probably take a few bites at the cherry before the next proper cold spell, i think the jet will buckle end of Jan heralding a cold Feb.

[weather eater]

FI should be very interesting going by the blocking to the north with another very cold

pattern likely to develope.

Yep, a big HP ridge gets thrown up across the Atlantic, leading to heights being raised to our north and a situation where the cold air to our east can get activated towards us. Similar evolutions have cropped up again and again in recent GFS runs.

[cooling climate]

Well I have to be honest and say that FI did not turn out as I envisaged but due to

the northern blocking another very cold pattern sure enough sets up.

Again its all about trends rather than detail but imo the signs are again increasing in

favor for another very cold spell of weather to take hold in about 10 + days time.

[SP1986]

I dont think think a cold pattern is likely to develop based on the premise of one run. The 06z was showing something completely different. In all honesty if these Atlantic patterns in the near time disappoint people then well, I find that truly shocking - the fact is weve just come out of one of the most intense winter cold spells for 30 years and people are disappointed about the Atlantic, seriously I have to wonder about people sometimes.

In the 'realistic' timeframe there's no real signal either way so we'll have to wait for a few days before knowing where this one is going.

[nick sussex]

In the shorter term the UKMO brings some colder upper air further west than the GFS at 72hrs, the shortwave looks well placed to deliver some snow for those on the northern flank.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=72&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=72&carte=1007

Even at this timeframe still likely to be further changes but overall a good chance of some snow, some doubt though about the next front coming in on Thursday as to what that would produce but a chance of two snow events but the second probably needs much higher ground.

I think the highest risk areas for the first event are the Midlands towards EA but away from coastal fringes down towards the SE north of the Thames, the second more northern areas with elevation.

Edited January 17, 2010 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

I dont think think a cold pattern is likely to develop based on the premise of one run. The 06z was showing something completely different. In all honesty if these Atlantic patterns in the near time disappoint people then well, I find that truly shocking - the fact is weve just come out of one of the most intense winter cold spells for 30 years and people are disappointed about the Atlantic, seriously I have to wonder about people sometimes.

In the 'realistic' timeframe there's no real signal either way so we'll have to wait for a few days before knowing where this one is going.

but stephen, this op fi run fits in well with much of the recent ens output from GEFS/GEM so i'm not sure you can say 'its only one run'. i am concerned/confused thats despite the ecm op looking not too dissimilar in evolution, the extended ecm ens are not supportive of any cold.

[The Eagle]

As regards the latest GFS run - the middle of it is nightmarish stuff for coldies with a Bartlett high over the near continent. A dodgy slope to be on. The end makes up for it though.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

As regards the latest GFS run - the middle of it is nightmarish stuff for coldies with a Bartlett high over the near continent. A dodgy slope to be on. The end makes up for it though.

no there is no bartlett high,please read what a bartlett high is. :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Fuzzbox were a great late 80`s band one of the best 80`s groups IMO first single aroud this time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00119890405.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1989/Rrea00219890404.gif

I`m going off topic arn`t I. :lol:

Yes, I put in a post shortly afterwards that mentioned some marginal snow events in the second half of February 1989 as well, but January 1989 was a shocker for snow lovers, even more so than February 1998 (at least the latter month had some snow for some at both ends).

In the shorter term the UKMO brings some colder upper air further west than the GFS at 72hrs, the shortwave looks well placed to deliver some snow for those on the northern flank.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=72&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=72&carte=1007

Yes, and I'm guessing that's probably why the Met Office are consistently warning about a possible snow event on Wednesday. I think fair play to them- their model has been better than the GFS recently after all. I still think it will mainly be an upland snow event though.