Model Output Discussion

[grab my graupel]

The front looks like fizzling out before it reaches the midlands, that block to our east is having more of an influence in the very short range than many suggested

With charts like this you can understand why me and others were going for cold to continue all week, it was a VERY close call indeed.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn481.png

The Atlantic does gain the upper hand eventually, but the block certainly isn't giving up without a fight. :lol:

Some nice tight isobars over Ireland and the West of Scotland too. which should please those who like

a bit of Windy Weather

[Duane S.]

NAO and AO forecasts not quite so good today. AO will be heading negative for sure but the NAO still wavering around neutral. The energy currently sat over Greenland is the cause and whilst it is there, a neutral NAO is the best we will get. MJO should be getting its skates on hopefully in the next day to two round to phase 5/6 and maybe later on 7/8?.

I still see the outcome as a breakup and subsequent displacement of the PV, which will head to our NE leaving us in a Northerly flow in 10 or so day's time. From that I can then quite easily see a scenario which creates a -NAO and leaves us a decent Easterly from a pressure build to our N and NW.

Edited January 18, 2010 by s4lancia

[Matty M]

Improvement to the 12z GFS, not there yet but signifigantly better than 6z.

Jet axes just needs to change abit and we'd be okay.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

Wow the atlantic onslaught lasts like one day this week, HP building northwards again :lol:

GME 12Z tonight

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

[Matty M]

total mess the models.

Expect big changes soon.

[nick sussex]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

Wow the atlantic onslaught lasts like one day this week, HP building northwards again

GME 12Z tonight :o

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

Yes looks like the models underestimated the block, also the UKMO upto 72hrs brings colder upper air in and the GME blows the Atlantic away by 108hrs, the GFS looks similar to the ECM but then looks like imploding, I think FI is quite close and I wouldn't have too much faith in the output past 96hrs. The UKMO has backtracked at 120hrs and brings the high further north, looks like the ECM called this correct but lets hope now that it continues with its trend of this morning.

Edited January 18, 2010 by nick sussex

[sandstorm2]

GFS out to 168 and it is looking mild with quite a long draw of a southwesterly, HP to our South and low pressure to our NW gives us only one thing I am afraid mild weather.

SS2

total mess the models.

Expect big changes soon.

Could you give your reasons for saying that.

SS2

[weather eater]

GFS at 216hrs looking almost exactly the same as the the 06z.

[mountain shadow]

12z shows why we need to get rid of the block ASAP, it allows for the trough to get into Europe and hey a Northerly tapping into the Polar Vortex.

http://209.197.11.121/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/12/240/h500slp.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf4eec18cf1eec481edbe703cf1eecb6&dopsig=5a4db59d268705dbb39431d919126cf4

Still increasing signs of a colder signal for the end of the month and start of next.

[Eugene]

Its looking mild after T+168 hrs which is FI for a day or so you mean, i wouldnt be calling mild next week when we have HP building end of the week thats for sure, with the trend for the block out east to push west in the very short range a HP link up after friday like on GME 12Z is a high risk, trends still good IMO.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes looks like the models underestimated the block, also the UKMO upto 72hrs brings colder upper air in and the GME blows the Atlantic away by 108hrs, the GFS looks similar to the ECM but then looks like imploding, I think FI is quite close and I wouldn't have too much faith in the output past 96hrs. The UKMO has backtracked at 120hrs and brings the high further north, looks like the ECM called this correct but lets hope now that it continues with its trend of this morning.

id be very skeptical of the model outputs right now i very much think its all unconvincing like whats been suggest mjo is on the move but so is the nao and ao.

either one or the other is wrong if anything is to come from what models are showing i dont think it will be as exciting as some might think,

i still think we are in no mans land and very much think after this lull we will see the alantic growing in strength,

jet will be returning aswell.

still theres still chance 5 6 weeks of winter left.

[Snowly does it]

Height rises over Greenland, a tiny area of LP sinks the Siberian block into Europe and the ensuing monster system of HP manages to avoid any link up to Greenland whilst LP systems bomb and ride the tiny gap to give us SWrly gales with a prone set-up.

Messy, messy stuff from T120 onwards - low res then sees a system go 87 on us over the top.

Too much going on for my liking.

HP nearby for the UK, could mean cold shots or could mean SWrlies, but far less complicated than the 12z version of events.

[Eugene]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

How the hell can anybody be confident of calling mild for next week with charts like this around which is very similar to GME 12Z.

[mountain shadow]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

How the hell can anybody be confident of calling mild for next week with charts like this around which is very similar to GME 12Z.

Where did that spring from? GFS has South Westerlies at that point. All eyes on the Ensembles and ECM. Perhaps I was hasty in wishing the demise of the block.

[Matty M]

UKM at 144hrs throws the cat amongst the pigeons.

As early as in 48 hours this block to our east is having more of an influence than expected.

Models in disarray by the looks of it.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKM at 144hrs throws the cat amongst the pigeons.

As early as in 48 hours this block to our east is having more of an influence than expected.

Models in disarray by the looks of it.

For sure matty the high looks stronger and stronger and the models may have underestimated it.

[The PIT]

Amazing as soon as the Met office downgrade there warnings for Wednesday to wet snow and heavy rain the 12oz GFS gives the first proper signs for snow on the front. Doesn't last long as it soon gets pushed away. In deep FI it's a slow return to a more typical winter as the high gets swatted away far away to the North east.

Fits in with GP's mild Feb comments earlier this month.

[Tim Bland]

IMO the models over the last week have never had a handle on the block. The models use previous data / experience and default to zonal but this isn't your average block! I would love to see continuous repeats of this weds scenario and this is still possible! See below for NAE precipitype which upgrades snow on Weds for central southern parts.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/18/basis12/ukuk/prty/10012012_1812.gif

Easterly from UKMO - http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF

GFS 12z ending in a Euro high (won't say the B word!)

All in all who knows?! Meto don't thats why they are being so vague!

Edited January 18, 2010 by Tim Bland

[The PIT]

IMO the models over the last week have never had a handle on the block. The models use previous data / experience and default to zonal but this isn't your average block! I would love to see continuous repeats of this weds scenario and this is still possible! See below for NAE precipitype which upgrades snow on Weds for central southern parts.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/18/basis12/ukuk/prty/10012012_1812.gif

GFS likes the idea UKMO fax doesn't show the cold getting so far west so that would fit in with the downgrade to the warnings. Tis a bit messy at the moment.

[mountain shadow]

Amazing as soon as the Met office downgrade there warnings for Wednesday to wet snow and heavy rain the 12oz GFS gives the first proper signs for snow on the front. Doesn't last long as it soon gets pushed away. In deep FI it's a slow return to a more typical winter as the high gets swatted away far away to the North east.

Fits in with GP's mild Feb comments earlier this month.

How's that then? The GFS only goes out to the start of February, and you've just written off the whole month?

UK Met even better on Wetter...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Trough undercutting block, pressure builds back north and west? Spoiler could be a ridge from the Azores of course.

Edited January 18, 2010 by mountain shadow

[The PIT]

How's that then? The GFS only goes out to the start of February, and you've just written off the whole month?

Well it shows a more zonal flow at the start of Feb and these tend to last for a while and GP did say he expected a mild Feb. Whether he does or not now is another matter but he has done very well so far has he not???

Of course you may think GP talks a load of nonsense but that's up to you.

[The Weather Dragon]

FI definatly at around T96 at present - GFS doesn't look plausible between 96-144 expect changes here. ECM will back UKMO 144 tonight.

[The PIT]

FI definatly at around T96 at present - GFS doesn't look plausible between 96-144 expect changes here. ECM will back UKMO 144 tonight.

I'm beginning to think T39 hours. :o

[phil nw.]

I can`t agree with some posters suggesting model confusion etc.

The models have been consistent and in agreement regarding their output for the rest of this week imo.

A couple of fronts to come through midweek and Friday with some rain,maybe a bit of wet snow briefly for some places on the first one as some surface cold is mixed in to the flow from the continent.

The UK has always been shown to be at the perifery of the Siberian High which, towards the weekend loses it`s influence.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

00z ECM 168hrs.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

Even one of the "lesser" models GME 132hrs.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgme1321.gif

We are still in a sort of nomans land by Sun as pressure rises to our South and keeps the UK in a slack flow which would keep temps. close to or just below average.

Edited January 18, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[mountain shadow]

Well it shows a more zonal flow at the start of Feb and these tend to last for a while and GP did say he expected a mild Feb. Whether he does or not now is another matter but he has done very well so far has he not???

Of course you may think GP talks a load of nonsense but that's up to you.

I have no idea how you arrive at that comment from my post. GP is a weather god and is the best medium range forecaster on this or any other site in my view.

My point was otherwise and I suggest your read it again, and this is not a standard zonal jet profile at the end of the run..

http://209.197.11.109/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/12/384/hgt300.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf4efe59cf1efe091edbf542cf1efec3&dopsig=a01eafa4af1b612cf4c0aea3641f0c46