3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

[Bolton67]

That is a bit premature, as the models go out to the 16th of Feb or so. And plus, UKMO shows good potential for Northern blocking on its last chart (T+144)

With the upmost respect, t+144 is a million miles away.

anyway , in 2 weeks i will be having temps of 25c-28c... factor 1

i will expect Britain will be dull, boring and mild.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Tuesday may give us snow and sleet for a little while on the front edge as the Artic air extends its welcome according to the model runs. I dare say this will surprise a few people the BBC need to update the forecast soon i.m.o.

With the upmost respect, t+144 is a million miles away.

anyway , in 2 weeks i will be having temps of 25c-28c... factor 1

i will expect Britain will be dull, boring and mild.

Isn't it odd I think people who love the Snow should all move to more suitable climates where there is lots of snow.

[Bolton67]

Tuesday may give us snow and sleet for a little while on the front edge as the Artic air extends its welcome according to the model runs. I dare say this will surprise a few people the BBC need to update the forecast soon i.m.o.

Isn't it odd I think people who love the Snow should all move to more suitable climates where there is lots of snow.

There will be no snow in tenerife

slapping the factor 1 on now

[Ben_Cambs]

With the upmost respect, t+144 is a million miles away.

anyway , in 2 weeks i will be having temps of 25c-28c... factor 1

i will expect Britain will be dull, boring and mild.

But to be fair on that one, some people are accepting the Bartlett charts that are in FI, and I think its ridiculous some people are suggesting 16/17C, its not gonna happen. Atlantic looks very likely for a while, I expect daytime highs at maximum 11/12C and 6/7C at night. Probably the cold wont return until the middle of Feb at least.

We might get a last glimp of snow on Wednesday, but after that its the Atlantic

Edited January 31, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Mrsf16]

Gritters out in Peterborough..... I dont like Ice unless its preceeded by snow!! hahahah

[NorthantsSnow]

Just discovered we've had a light dusting of snow in Northants this evening- very little has accumulated but it certainly took me by surprise when I pulled the curtains back. Prior to this and in disgust at the latest model output and the lack of snow in the forecast I had logged out of NW and wasn't planning to come back for some time. Amazing what effect even a tiny bit of snow can have, eh?

Not sure if there's any more on the way- I'm off to have a peek at the radar now.

EDIT 00:34am-- Looks like we got extremely lucky with a rogue snow shower hitting us directly!

Going by that I was right on the eastern edge but still enough for a sugar coating. Extremely localised though and weakening as it heads SE. Fingers crossed for more overnight.

Edited February 1, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Take a look at Ian Fergusons post on the previous page, looks like you will get a few more snow showers nothing to write home about but still. I think they will make it into the Hertfordshire area later also.

[Snow Obsession]

A surprise light dusting here

[willzy]

Steady snow here at the moment. After the weekend where the showers kept out over the North sea, it is a pleasant surprise to wake up to a covering this morning . This may be the last we get for a little while as it turns less cold as the week goes on. Anything can happen so keep optimistic about more colder and snowy weather for the rest of the winter.

[Mr.Plow]

Quite a good covering here near the coast (Just north of Gt Yarmouth)

And still coming down nicely, the showers look like they'll be catching us for a while.

[Snowangel-MK]

Had a very light dusting of powdery snow here overnight, a welcome surprise. It's a beautiful sunny Monday

morning so I'm off out to enjoy it while it lasts and before the Atlantic wet and mild muck arrives.

[jennyjane]

Looks very cold outside with a light covering of snow right now and clear.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well luckily for us cold lovers this Atlantic spell is unlikely to last too lon. A big switcharound from the models from last night and this has taught a lesson to some people on the forum who thought that a very mild spell was definate. The pick of the models atm is ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

12z's coming out soon

Edited February 1, 2010 by Snowman0697

[jennyjane]

Been for a trip down the a12 this afternoon and was quite surprised at the differences in snow depths at various points between Lowestoft and Yarmouth, even from different sides of the road.

[jennyjane]

Just spoke to my mother in cambridge she said it was very icy underfoot this morning and she had been with my sister in northampton yesterday and the car slid sideways on the black ice, but they weren't injured.

Also there were black ice spots leading to reedham, my boyfriend was warned about them by other drivers on his way into work.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well just to tell you guys/gals that were gonna be on a rollercoaster ride again, for the possibility of another cold spell <_<

[Bolton67]

OMG!!!

What is going on with the models.. yesterday it was showing very mild temps with the Atlantic winning the battle. NOW they are showing what could be a very cold spell.

[Ben_Cambs]

Bartlett high to Bitter Easterly in 24 hours. Wierd?!?!!?!? Although admittidly the cold spell is in FI, as FI is probably T+72 at the moment. But if these charts did pull off.....

Caution must be taken though after last week!

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

As long as the UKMO run keeps on track and the GFS run catches up in a day or 2 I will be very happy. It looks good for the High to build in Greenland this is what I will be watching for on the charts and then the Easterly will start the journey. Caution is needed though as Snowman says and if its the same sort of runs by Wednesday I would then say its 90% chance of happening the timing of 96 hours is the key if that high has progressed North.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Bartlett high to Bitter Easterly in 24 hours. Wierd?!?!!?!? Although admittidly the cold spell is in FI, as FI is probably T+72 at the moment. But if these charts did pull off.....

Caution must be taken though after last week!

I am much more confident of a cold spell today then i was a couple of days ago, the building blocks are there and every model show these building blocks. Also, evey thing suggests a large cold pell towards the middle of feb. The sudden warming in the stratosphere has flipped these winds to east that travel around the artic. The very cold air over the Arctic suddenly races down into central Europe. With this stratosphere warming, the winds flip from west to east pumping that cold, snowy air towards the UK. So, a great winter looks like to go out with a bang!

[Ben_Cambs]

I am much more confident of a cold spell today then i was a couple of days ago, the building blocks are there and every model show these building blocks. Also, evey thing suggests a large cold pell towards the middle of feb. The sudden warming in the stratosphere has flipped these winds to east that travel around the artic. The very cold air over the Arctic suddenly races down into central Europe. With this stratosphere warming, the winds flip from west to east pumping that cold, snowy air towards the UK. So, a great winter looks like to go out with a bang!

Great explanation there, Im sure that will help members that will visit this thread Im currently looking back into the Wetterzentrale archives, at the moment just for a bit of fun. These 3 charts are 1. ECM T+240

2. 8th Feb 91 3. 2nd Feb 09

So something very interesting in FI. We see in the ECM chart the high retrogressing westwards and linking up with the Greenie High, which must be watched! ECM ensembles great tonight. But caution needed still

Edited February 1, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Thundery wintry showers]

Mild SWs to easterlies... back to mild SWs.

I think realistically the middle part of February is the most likely to see some kind of cold outbreak most likely from N or NE.

[Ben_Cambs]

FI in the models as about T+72 at the moment, the amount of different scenarios they have dropped over the past few days has been phenominal.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Brief spell of sleet/snow in Norwich on the back end of that main area of rain.

[mackerel sky]

Snowflakes mixed in with the rain here now. Dropped 6C from ~7C at 6pm to ~1C now.