Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[andymusic]

GFS & ECM both looking like after this northerly this weekend going for a very prolonged easterly through Feb (from about the 5th onwards) - BACK INTO THE FREEZER WE GO!

[welshwizard]

yes sounds like we be going back to very cold again,lets just hope that some of them wet horrible storms make thier way in from atlantic and come over Wales and dump some snow back on us when it meets the cold air,and then get pushed back off to the atlantic again lol.

[Marcus_surfer]

I think friday could be the case of nowcasting, as it maybe rain for some, but the weekend looks interesting with showers and colder air

[andymusic]

GFS longer term - looks likw siberia is taking a holiday and coming to Wales - there's nice - crank up the heating Feb is gonna be a shivery month that's for sure!

"The GFS is just out and out model weather porn - if this comes off the Siberian wastelands will have moved into our neighbourhood! - AMAZING!

Feb is gonna be a mega cold month this year - crank up the heating and here we go for the end of the week till maybe march - who knows!"

[keithlucky]

I think friday could be the case of nowcasting, as it maybe rain for some, but the weekend looks interesting with showers and colder air

After seeing the latest models i getting more confident that february will be snowier than january i cant believe how cold winter has been,I dont think i see a winter like this again!

[Marcus_surfer]

Who said we were in for a Mild, Very Mild February?

[J10]

Still looking very promising into Saturday for a snow streamer with also a chance of this for Sunday.

Longer term also very very interesting tonight.

Friday looks more a back edge snow event, rather than a fully fledged event although some higher hills could do very well.

[benb]

Evening All!

Well, here we go again!

Great few runs from a range of models over the last 24hrs hours.

Obviously things will change, that's the nature of the beast, but it looks like another prolonged cold spell could well be on the cards.

The northerly has slowly been prolonged and intensified in terms of cold 850s over the last couple of days: still -10 850s over parts of Wales on Monday morning and then cold air from the east is forecast (currently) to seep across Wales before the milder air ever reaches even the far west. After that, it looks, well, cold for err... ever?

Snow potential difficult to firm up on at this stage. N/NW set up favours Pembrokeshire/Carmarthenshire, but in this unstable air flow, snow can develop almost anywhere and there certainly will be a few surprises. Indeed, similar synoptics have already delivered in my location this year. Notably, Jan 1st and 5th.

Personally, don't fancy Thurs into Friday much- the cold air probably won't have established itself sufficiently (perhaps back-edge snow), but any time after Friday lunchtime precipitation will certainly be of a wintry nature. Could be three days of snow showers in favoured spots ie Preseli Mountains, high ground in Carmarthenshire. More organised, widespread snow is possible at times as troughs develop in the flow.

Another potential snow event appears to be Monday into Tues- see if that little 'low' nipping across the top of the high and across the S coast of Wales develops over the next few days.

Anyway- ENJOY!

Edited January 26, 2010 by benb

[The Weather Dragon]

Evening All!

Well, here we go again!

Great few runs from a range of models over the last 24hrs hours.

Obviously things will change, that's the nature of the beast, but it looks like another prolonged cold spell could well be on the cards.

The northerly has slowly been prolonged and intensified in terms of cold 850s over the last couple of days: still -10 850s over parts of Wales on Monday morning and then cold air from the east is forecast (currently) to seep across Wales before the milder air ever reaches even the far west. After that, it looks, well, cold for err... ever?

Snow potential difficult to firm up on at this stage. N/NW set up favours Pembrokeshire/Carmarthenshire, but in this unstable air flow, snow can develop almost anywhere and there certainly will be a few surprises. Indeed, similar synoptics have already delivered in my location this year. Notably, Jan 1st and 5th.

Personally, don't fancy Thurs into Friday much- the cold air probably won't have established itself sufficiently (perhaps back-edge snow), but any time after Friday lunchtime precipitation will certainly be of a wintry nature. Could be three days of snow showers in favoured spots ie Preseli Mountains, high ground in Carmarthenshire. More organised, widespread snow is possible at times as troughs develop in the flow.

Another potential snow event appears to be Monday into Tues- see if that little 'low' nipping across the top of the high and across the S coast of Wales develops over the next few days.

Anyway- ENJOY!

Good Summary Ben - Excellent synoptics for the weekend which usually deliver us heavy snow showers here in Pembrokeshire

[Bobby]

Before you check the ECM I recommend you sit down... :blink:

[Jamie.]

Before you check the ECM I recommend you sit down... :blink:

It's just .

But there's alot of hours for a downgrade/backtrack to occur... which is the only way they can go reallly .

[Elnonio]

It's just .

But there's alot of hours for a downgrade/backtrack to occur... which is the only way they can go reallly .

What ECM? where is it? For us chart newbies - what does it mean? Don't keep me in suspense like this!!!!

[andymusic]

What ECM? where is it? For us chart newbies - what does it mean? Don't keep me in suspense like this!!!!

GFS and ECM are computer models that help us predict what weather we will be having

check out

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html

And the current charts are showing a 1947/63 forecast for Feb - mega cold and snow with Siberia holidaying in Britain!

Great news for some but also could be scary for a lot too - this could turn out to be extremely severe!

Edited January 26, 2010 by andymusic

[MartUK]

Hi Andy how do you read/use the charts ?

[Elnonio]

GFS and ECM are computer models that help us predict what weather we will be having

check out

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html

And the current charts are showing a 1947/63 forecast for Feb - mega cold and snow with Siberia holidaying in Britain!

Great news for some but also could be scary for a lot too - this could turn out to be extremely severe!

Thanks Andy. I know I've asked you before !! I do know that the charts predict what weather we will be having - it's just the nuances that you committed weather watchers understand that I have problems with. My A level Geography teacher would be turning in his grave ( if he was dead - which he is not!).

[TonyH]

Today has been the coldest day since the 12th (the latter stages of THE cold spell).

Max just 2.8c here, and its already the coldest night since the 10th (-10.8c that night!), currently its on -2c.

[benb]

Today has been the coldest day since the 12th (the latter stages of THE cold spell).

Max just 2.8c here, and its already the coldest night since the 10th (-10.8c that night!), currently its on -2c.

Just on freezing here, which is also the coldest temp for me since THE cold spell!

[andymusic]

Hi Andy how do you read/use the charts ?

Initially it can seem quite complicated - you need to understand wind direction - the direction of the high pressures and low pressures - take into account the temperatures which relate to each chart - eventually you start to understand what certain events and how things move or might change/move - GFS is one of the main models and is able to give you a lot of info for you to be able to study exactly how the high/low pressures - wind speeds - temperatures etc etc work in conjunction with each other. I have been watching the weather (weather spotter) for quite some years now so the experience helps alot - I did geog a level too - over 25 years ago now though - But when all said and done I don't get things right all the time just like the pros - the weather is a science and it will always be a bit unpredictable!

[DeepSnow]

Colder here today, current temp -2.4c but was -2.7c a while ago, looking good so far then for the next cold spell? will be interesting to see what happens, it would be great to get another good snowfall before the winter is over!

[Bobby]

3 potential snow events for Wales this week:

Event A: Snow streamer on Saturday from the North/North West, N. Wales mainly affected but snow all areas could see snow, significant falls in places.

Event B: Snow streamer on Sunday from more to the North West, North and West wales mainly affected but again all areas could see snow, significant accumulations in places again.

Event C: A front slides from the NW on Sunday night/Monday morning bringing a more organised band of precipitation. Looking marginal at the moment, impossible to tell where it will go at this range but potential for more signifcant snow fall.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Barb-

[joo]

Hi, I’m Joo and I live in Caerphilly / work in Treforest and have mostly lived in the Taff Valley all my life.

I’m a little bit addicted to weather, but not enough to actually learn it properly. I adore snow but hate driving in it. My first bit of weather watching is usually for skiing. “Will it snow heavily for the few days before I get there and be blue skies and low enough temps while I’m there?” kind of thing.

I was thrilled to find this forum a few weeks ago. I find the metcheck and bbc and metoffice a bit vague and not specific enough. So to find you lot with your ever so local forecasts was great. Especially last week.

I was reading this thread on the Tuesday night (12th), then I had the thread up all day in work, every now and again I’d report “it’s looking big”, it’s approaching the coast”, etc. Then after lunch it got exciting. “it’s reached Swansea”, “now it’s in Port Talbot”, “now Maesteg”, “right, it’s hit the top of the Valleys”. Then I got the severity reports “they are saying it’s heavy in Swansea”.

A colleague was heard to say “it’s too wet, it’s not going to stick”. But I knew better. At 25 past 3 I said “it’s imminent, I’m out the door at 3:30” I’m sure the others were rolling their eyes thinking I was over reacting. But I knew better hahaha.

As I was putting my coat on it started snowing. “I’m outta here” and I ran off. Maybe I should have given everyone more of a warning, but I was gone. I got home in about 15 minutes (about average) just ahead of the snow in Caerphilly. And sat with my cup of tea looking out the window and on the local webcams and news, snug and smug as anything.

So a massive thank you for getting me home on time. I’d thought about popping in Tesco for a few bits and pieces, but decided I needed to get home asap. There were tales of colleagues taking 2 hours to get off the industrial estate. The SIL who lives just above me wrecked her clutch as she couldn’t get up the hill home. Hubby always leaves his car at the bottom of the hill to get to work if it snows but he still took about 1.5 hours to do his normal 15 minute trip home (I did tell him to get out asap, but he didn’t listen)

And I had such a fab day making a 7 foot snowman with friends and meeting the neighbours on the way back – we moved in here at the end of December and this snow is a great “ice breaker” (pun intended, lol)

And now there may be another event imminent. I'm sure if I'm out the door on Friday saying "move it", there'll be a few more following.

So a big wave from me and I hope to be able to report on my lamp post watching.

[andymusic]

Hi Joo - welcome to the forum - we seem to get things reasonably right around here - just a lot of experienced weather geezers - glad we could help you out last time - looks like there could be more crazy weather on the way - keep tuned in!

Edited January 26, 2010 by andymusic

[Bobby]

Welcome Joo.

Was a great snow event that wasn't it, came on so suddenly here, I left house to take dog for walk at 4pm and by 4:15pm I was trapped in a whiteout... had 6-8 inches fall in the end from that. Hopefully a reapat is to come.

[J10]

The event for Friday looks the wrong of marginal except on the highest of ground in Wales.

Thereafter, there is the real potential of snow streamers, and these can give quite a lot of snow for prone areas in Wales, and things are looking more promising as we got closer to the time.

A lot of uncertainty after this, but a lot can happen.