Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Marcus_surfer]

Spring starts on Monday according to the forecast in our local rag.

Sunday, 11C? What the hell is he talking about?

[liamcymro]

Looking quite good for snow showers here, the worst scenario would be if it missed us by a couple of miles which I've seen happening quite often with these set-ups! Fingers Crossed!! Currently - 3.5C

Spring starts on Monday according to the forecast in our local rag.

Reading about him on the S4/C weather site he hasn't got any qualifications in Geography or any related weather subject, instead he's got a degree in Communications and Broadcasting - Nothing wrong with that but you would except who knows more about the weather to forecast in a Newspaper - He's giving out wrong information to people!

[pascalsbongo]

Sunday, 11C? What the hell is he talking about?

I wonder how many people actually read his report and take it seriously?

14 degrees lol , get the barby out.

[liamcymro]

Sorry - Reading about him on the S4/C weather site he hasn't got any qualifications in Geography or any related weather subject, instead he's got a degree in Communications and Broadcasting - Nothing wrong with that but you would from someone that forecasts in a Newspaper - He's giving out wrong information to people!

[TonyH]

I wonder how many people actually read his report and take it seriously?

14 degrees lol , get the barby out.

Glad you all feel the way I do...I have to read this trash every week! This latest one just has to be the worst though.

Scary...he is also the main 'forecaster' for S4C.

[liamcymro]

Glad you all feel the way I do...I have to read this trash every week! This latest one just has to be the worst though.

Scary...he is also the main 'forecaster' for S4C.

S4/C used to have a good qualified team until ITV took it over....

[J10]

Looking good for parts of Wales over the weekend for snow showers.

Heres the 48h fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

You can see the convergence line coming down the Irish sea and running in to Pembrokeshire. Showers seem very likely there looking at that chart.

The 12z GFS brings showers further east:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs393.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs423.gif

Winds seem to be NNW-NW on the GFS which is going to bring snow showers for many in the west/sw. The upper temps are great:

http://expert.weathe...013000_2812.gif

NAE:

http://expert.weathe...013006_2812.gif

Indicating that showers will get further inland in Wales. With very cold upper temps making conditions great for snow:

http://expert.weathe...013006_2812.gif

If the flow stays to the N then showers will be restricted to Pembrokeshire, but with this Arctic flow sticking round until roughly Monday, then it gives room for wind direction to veer one way or another whether its to the N,NNW,NW so shower distribution will generally alter with the wind direction/flow.

NW, W & SW Wales seem the most likely areas to receive the showers over the weekend and given those upper temps and with the 528 dam line over the country then neally all of those showers should be of snow.

Excellent analysis there, cannot fault it.

Tonight's GFS looks perfect for snow streamers for Friday Night into Saturday as well.

[marclt]

Glad you all feel the way I do...I have to read this trash every week! This latest one just has to be the worst though.

Scary...he is also the main 'forecaster' for S4C.

I've read that occasionally too.... it must be written at least on the Monday before it go on the shelves Wednesday. But it generally is incorrect and usually contains local events and general gossip. They probably just like using it because it's a way of keeping in with S4C and welsh speakers!

Excellent analysis there, cannot fault it.

Tonight's GFS looks perfect for snow streamers for Friday Night into Saturday as well.

Got any further detail Jack?

[andymusic]

Looking quite good for snow showers here, the worst scenario would be if it missed us by a couple of miles which I've seen happening quite often with these set-ups! Fingers Crossed!! Currently - 3.5C

Reading about him on the S4/C weather site he hasn't got any qualifications in Geography or any related weather subject, instead he's got a degree in Communications and Broadcasting - Nothing wrong with that but you would except who knows more about the weather to forecast in a Newspaper - He's giving out wrong information to people!

BBC Llandaff has a similar problem with creative music types - all their sound staff have degrees in something or other - theory then - but no real creative music experience - leads to all sorts of probs with artists who do interviews and need micing up for a live singing sessions - left without reverb (no echo), bad sound mixing etc etc etc

[J10]

I've read that occasionally too.... it must be written at least on the Monday before it go on the shelves Wednesday. But it generally is incorrect and usually contains local events and general gossip. They probably just like using it because it's a way of keeping in with S4C and welsh speakers!

Got any further detail Jack?

I added a bit more detail after you posted that.

[andymusic]

Seems the snow streamers have it for this weekend's event in Wales - from the middle of next week things really start to get interesting!

[top data]

hi res rad look good

[J10]

Seems the snow streamers have it for this weekend's event in Wales - from the middle of next week things really start to get interesting!

Perhaps some general snow could be possible, into Monday. But streamers do look likely for much of the weekend, sometimes totally concentrated for western areas, and sometimes further east as well.

As for next week, far from resolved, but cold is never too far to the east.

[top data]

heres a vm radar shot of n ireland

[pascalsbongo]

Glad you all feel the way I do...I have to read this trash every week! This latest one just has to be the worst though.

Scary...he is also the main 'forecaster' for S4C.

I wonder where he is getting his information from?

Not , meto , sky , bbc ,etc and this site for sure.

Perhaps he uses a formulae that involves rolling a dice 5 times , totalling it up, then if its winter divide by 2, then spinning a giant wheel of fortune style wheel with each segment + then - then + then - etc.

Could get -15 though , and that would suit Andy , as he would achieve his magic -12.

You just need a roll of 24 or above Andy, then the magic minus sign on the wheel of fortune.

Sack him now.

[andymusic]

I wonder where he is getting his information from?

Not , meto , sky , bbc ,etc and this site for sure.

Perhaps he uses a formulae that involves rolling a dice 5 times , totalling it up, then if its winter divide by 2, then spinning a giant wheel of fortune style wheel with each segment + then - then + then - etc.

Could get -15 though , and that would suit Andy , as he would achieve his magic -12.

You just need a roll of 24 or above Andy, then the magic minus sign on the wheel of fortune.

Sack him now.

He shouldn't be allowed any where near a forecasting newspaper column - imagine - all the old folks in west wales now will be wearing t-shirts come next week cause of what he said - and he might even cause some fatalities! - spring in deed! - silly bugger

Once again - we have the GFS 18z showing a mega easterly and a massive northerly fighting over Great Britain in FI - weird - never seen that before - most of these charts are amazing!

[Elnonio]

Quite obviously p*ssed I think. No snow this weekend then - lots of northerly wind but no precipitation to go with it I suspect. A few flakes maybe. Poor show!! Charts I have been looking at seem a bit scary towards next weekend though - but a week is a long time in snow-watching. N x

[top data]

mint ah heading this way

[pascalsbongo]

I would say in general, the east of wales has faired better in terms of overall depth of snow so far this winter, this forthcoming event should even things up a little.

Its only fair really.

Even things up before, hopefully, a mega cold blast which will leave the east overall winners once again.

But, for now ,this is mainly a west wales event.

Everywhere it would seem has had a good pasting at some point.

Is there anywhere in Wales that has missed out?

Aberaeron was mentioned a while ago??

[andymusic]

I would say in general, the east of wales has faired better in terms of overall depth of snow so far this winter, this forthcoming event should even things up a little.

Its only fair really.

Even things up before, hopefully, a mega cold blast which will leave the east overall winners once again.

But, for now ,this is mainly a west wales event.

Everywhere it would seem has had a good pasting at some point.

Is there anywhere in Wales that has missed out?

Aberaeron was mentioned a while ago??

Please sir - I had too much snow in the last cold spell - does that count?

[Elnonio]

I have to disagree, Cardiff, which is probably east wales as far as you are concerned got measly amounts. Ok so it all froze over and made life miserable for everyone but that really wasn't the point. We want 6 ft drifts like what you get in the mountains of Swansea!! N x

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Excellent analysis there, cannot fault it.

Tonight's GFS looks perfect for snow streamers for Friday Night into Saturday as well.

Cheers it looks like the NAE and the GFS want to set up streamers friday night into Saturday- Although the intensity off this is still uncertain.

gfs 18z:

http://charts.netwea...8/30/ukprec.png < 30h

http://charts.netwea...8/36/ukprec.png < 36h

Latest NAE:

http://expert.weathe...013000_2818.gif < 30h

http://expert.weathe...013000_2818.gif < here you can see the very cold uppers running over the Irish sea so showers should start to get going quite quickly.

http://expert.weathe...013006_2818.gif < 36h

As you can see the GFS has the showers more intense than the NAE, but its a good sign to see the NAE showing the same type of setup.

The GFS has been consistent in showing a steamer setting up over Wales, the risk does seem highest tomorrow night in to saturday morning.

[TonyH]

I had to email the Cambrian News Editor to vent re CJ!

Linked her to us on here!

Edited January 28, 2010 by Tonyh

[Wales123098]

I have to disagree, Cardiff, which is probably east wales as far as you are concerned got measly amounts. Ok so it all froze over and made life miserable for everyone but that really wasn't the point. We want 6 ft drifts like what you get in the mountains of Swansea!! N x

You live in Canton, this area of Cardiff rarely gets snow. I can tell you even lower areas of Cardiff North had around 6inches.

[keithlucky]

That's possibly looking like quite an interesting period for wintry weather. The change from mild(ish) to cold in the later part of next week has been developed by the models in different ways, generally on a theme of a cold dry air from the E/SE coming up against milder, moister air from the S/SE.

Wouldn't take much change for this to become a very snowy chart.

Obviously lots to watch in the nearer timeframe and then distinct possibility of the easterly in eight/nine days time.

Enjoy the weekend!

I was about to ask that could be an interesting where to airmasses clash.