Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[andymusic]

The event for Friday looks the wrong of marginal except on the highest of ground in Wales.

Thereafter, there is the real potential of snow streamers, and these can give quite a lot of snow for prone areas in Wales, and things are looking more promising as we got closer to the time.

A lot of uncertainty after this, but a lot can happen.

The potential is awesome after friday - lots of model watching and forecaster checking and lampost peering and then - shovels at the ready!

[Stevetynant]

Today has been the coldest day since the 12th (the latter stages of THE cold spell).

Max just 2.8c here, and its already the coldest night since the 10th (-10.8c that night!), currently its on -2c.

Exactly zero degrees here in the Rhymney Valley but it was -1.5 as I came over Caerphilly Mountain earlier this evening - it sure is getting cold again.

How much confidence have you guys for the extended Feb forecast? hearing comparable to 1947 / 63 is pretty sensationalist stuff. I'm not doubting the knowledge or the sincerity of the posters but I'd just appreciate your thoughts on this .

Also like to say I really enjoy this forum now and so glad I found it

Posted a few snow shots from the Dec event where I live - hope no one minds I will delete them if its not appropriate

cheers

[Bobby]

I don't think there's much chance of anything on Friday, can write that off pretty much. The interest is on the weekend and then maybe into next week.

How much confidence have you guys for the extended Feb forecast? hearing comparable to 1947 / 63 is pretty sensationalist stuff.

That's just people getting carried away I think, it happens all the time. We could have a cold and snowy Feb but anything like 63/47 is very unlikely.

Very nice photos... looks magical doesn't it with crisp blue skies and lots of dry powdery snow. Forgot how nice it looks.

[Cymro]

Currently -2.8 here and today we had a max of 2.4 which says alot was much colder than i expected although the mild sector tomorrow i dont see tempreatures reaching 8degrees maybe a 5 at best both certainly arent overly mild for the average. Also areas from Swansea Westwards should be looking happy for the Weekend, Jackone and me always blap on about this kind of setup but its yet to disappoint me here in Carmarthenshire the first of jamuary we had 3 inches of snow which didn't thaw anywhere so let's hope we get a good covering yet again and then it freezes to get a whole load more o met office snow days :lol:. Things can still change but february atm is currently looking to start on a colder note than January IMO, the big question will be how long can we tap into that cold from the east, the longer the spell prolonges the colder things will get as last fortnight ago proved.

[joo]

Thanks for the warm welcome. Now we want it cold again

Like I said, I can't thank you enough for getting me home quick the other week. Now make sure you keep up the good work if and when the next mega snow occurs

When I was putting the bins out earlier it was ever so bitter. And Derek said there'd be snow on the weekend. (That's about it for my meteorological knowledge lol)

[Marcus_surfer]

Exactly zero degrees here in the Rhymney Valley but it was -1.5 as I came over Caerphilly Mountain earlier this evening - it sure is getting cold again.

How much confidence have you guys for the extended Feb forecast? hearing comparable to 1947 / 63 is pretty sensationalist stuff. I'm not doubting the knowledge or the sincerity of the posters but I'd just appreciate your thoughts on this .

Also like to say I really enjoy this forum now and so glad I found it

Posted a few snow shots from the Dec event where I live - hope no one minds I will delete them if its not appropriate

cheers

Stunning pictures there mate!

[Jamie.]

Exactly zero degrees here in the Rhymney Valley but it was -1.5 as I came over Caerphilly Mountain earlier this evening - it sure is getting cold again.

How much confidence have you guys for the extended Feb forecast? hearing comparable to 1947 / 63 is pretty sensationalist stuff. I'm not doubting the knowledge or the sincerity of the posters but I'd just appreciate your thoughts on this .

Also like to say I really enjoy this forum now and so glad I found it

Posted a few snow shots from the Dec event where I live - hope no one minds I will delete them if its not appropriate

cheers

very nice pics.

Thanks for sharing ^_^.

[Bobby]

GFS 12z looks better for us in Wales, plenty of snow about:

Friday/Saturday: Looks like a trough or front bringing showery snow from the North for most of Wales, especially the North and West. Several inches in places.

Sunday night: A more organised band of snow crossing all of Wales, a few inches in places again.

Perhaps a milder period then but strong signs of a potent Easterly developing later on.

[Stevetynant]

Thanks for the comments on the pictures fOlks - not quite sure how to use the multiquote but I will get there

Tuning in fairly regularly now - things starting to get exciting again

keep up the good work all.

[marclt]

MetOffice are just giving 'isolated wintry showers' for the weekend... are we going to get more significant snow fall??

getting a bit nervous that this might not come off...

[keithlucky]

MetOffice are just giving 'isolated wintry showers' for the weekend... are we going to get more significant snow fall??

getting a bit nervous that this might not come off... Look at there own fax charts saturday sunday showery met office will upgrade weather warning near to weekend.

[Jamie.]

MetOffice are just giving 'isolated wintry showers' for the weekend... are we going to get more significant snow fall??

getting a bit nervous that this might not come off...

That was the forecast from the start wasn't it? Wintry showers for the weekend... becoming more organised on Sunday.

It's later on next week I'm lead to believe could hold big snow potential, but anything can happen!

[benb]

Nice little chart showing the potential snow streamer for Fri into Sat...

18z GFS supports this well...

The precip chart for the time does too, but it won't seem to upload!

Also, as barb has highlighted, Sun into Mon also looks like one to watch.

Easterly? What easterly? One thing at a time...

[marclt]

Thanks for reassuring me guys. It was 9c today... and drizzly and murky out there. Just hoping things change significantly over the next 48/72hours.

[J10]

In the situation such as forecast for this weekend snow streamers can easily develop and where they do, prone spots can easily get several inches of snow overnight.

Firstly I would write off Friday, it looks far too mild for snow.

Friday into Saturday Winds varying from NNW to NNE on GFS, with 850HPa temps below -6c, looking pretty good, especially early Friday night into Saturday, with a definite snow streamer on GFS but dying out a bit into Saturday as the wind then veers NNE. Into Sunday, the wind direction overnight is more of a NNE, and there is a definite system pushing south Sunday night into Monday.

Other models such as UKMO keep more of a general NNW flow across the weekend, and for western areas, this is better than frontal system which tend to be more marginal due to the dreaded mild sector, further east, low pressure tend to be better.

[soupsurfer7]

Yeah Friday night looking encouraging:)

(Met Office)

[liamcymro]

Weather Online - Snow is back on the cards for this weekend. Mostly around the coasts, I suspect Wales could take quite a hit, some of that snow feed into the Midlands. eastern coasts of England are in the firing line too. It will be fairly localised, but I would not be surprised to see 5-10cm in some places.

[andymusic]

After seeing the latest models i getting more confident that february will be snowier than january i cant believe how cold winter has been,I dont think i see a winter like this again!

Could be the start of things to come for the next 20 years or so due to global cooling!

Who said we were in for a Mild, Very Mild February?

NOT ME!

Quite a complicated picture over the weekend but no doubt we'll defo know closer to the time if snow is really a certainty and I think some of us in Wales will see a few inches of the white stuff - dates for your diaries of 7th - 8th Feb seem to be the next major spell of cold though - just keep an eye on the models for those dates!

[welshwizard]

i went and saw my grandfather today,who is 91 and he was on about the weather and he said he thinks this winter could get a lot colder and may last well into march,he said in his long years on this planet he has seen a few winters that have been like this and they norm last quite long and he just has a feeling that this could be a long cold winter but he is not sure if we will get the snows that have happened in the past. i myself hope he is correct and he is a wise old man so it would not supprise me if it happens.and then a nice hot summer to follow (please) lol

[andymusic]

i went and saw my grandfather today,who is 91 and he was on about the weather and he said he thinks this winter could get a lot colder and may last well into march,he said in his long years on this planet he has seen a few winters that have been like this and they norm last quite long and he just has a feeling that this could be a long cold winter but he is not sure if we will get the snows that have happened in the past. i myself hope he is correct and he is a wise old man so it would not supprise me if it happens.and then a nice hot summer to follow (please) lol

I wouldn't be surprised myself and if the blocking highs continue like they are supposed to then we will defo be getting a very hot summer - BBQs at the ready - but we'll need to get through this cold 1st!

Tonight's GFS 18z is showing a fair bit of snow coming through Wales Saturday afternoon!

[benb]

18z currently predicting a pretty snowy start to the weekend.

The deeper 850 cold seems to dig in a little quicker, with wintry precipitation possible from late Fri afternoon down western coasts.

Over night into Sat morning, a trough is progged to bring more significant precipitation over a wider area...

Beat me to it Andy!

I love this set up!

Edited January 27, 2010 by benb

[andymusic]

18z currently predicting a pretty snowy start to the weekend.

The deeper 850 cold seems to dig in a little quicker, with wintry precipitation possible from late Fri afternoon down western coasts.

Over night into Sat morning, a trough is progged to bring more significant precipitation over a wider area...

Beat me to it Andy!

I love this set up!

sorry mate

Looks like some more snow then sunday evening into Monday!

That'll add a couple more inches - looks like we might do quite well this weekend and with the cold the snow will stay around

Edited January 27, 2010 by andymusic

[benb]

sorry mate

No worries!

I know it's only one run- but it is another run showing great potential for the weekend. Looking forward to watching it get firmed up over the next couple of days...

Just hope the warm sectors are kept to a minimum!

[andymusic]

No worries!

I know it's only one run- but it is another run showing great potential for the weekend. Looking forward to watching it get firmed up over the next couple of days...

Just hope the warm sectors are kept to a minimum!

I think once the friday warm sector is out of the way the northerly will get on with the job of freezing us just enough to allow the snow to pile up!

[pascalsbongo]

sorry mate

Looks like some more snow then sunday evening into Monday!

That'll add a couple more inches - looks like we might do quite well this weekend and with the cold the snow will stay around

Suppose i will have to renew my radar subscription.

What i want to know is will Andy get his -12 degrees celsius??

Soooooooooo, it erm was a bit cold this morning then it was a bit mild and it didnt snow but hey.