Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Cymro]

The Pembrokeshire dangler looks like it's running through the heart of Carmarthenshire on latest radar!!!

Yes a bit further West than last night,Btw i told you this would affect Swansea etc :lol:

[Ukwoody]

Is there any more to come to guys? I cant access the details properly this morning on this PC

[Cymro]

Is there any more to come to guys? I cant access the details properly this morning on this PC

Yes for pemrbokeshire now and parts of carmarthenshire in about an hour by the looks of things.

[The Weather Dragon]

Hi Woody - I think that we can expect some wintry showers today & tomorrow turning increasingley to Snow. The problem is with this setup is that you could either get hit hard or nothing at all - The line of showers flowing from the Irish sea is beginning to pep up now. Best to keep watching the radar.

[Ukwoody]

dark clouds to the left, dark clouds to the right and I'm under blue skies and sunshine...

[Stevetynant]

Well 10am in the Rhymney Valley - and the road outside my house is white (in an icing sugar kind of way) although the fields look like they've had a heavy frost only. Didn't expect to get anything this far East. The weird thing is its still there - must be biting cold for it to still be there in the bright sunshine out there today.. Just off to Newquay in Ceredigion in the next few minutes - wonder how much has fallen down there?

[J10]

Yes a bit further West than last night,Btw i told you this would affect Swansea etc

Didn't we just. Stunningly beautiful out there today, crystal clear skies and a winter wonderland, with snow on all surfaces, around 7cm (just under 3 inches on the grass) on the grass, closer to 2-4cm on paths/pavemente etc, as it more soft hail when it started and it struggled to stuck for a bit. The snow froze overnight, with temps down to -4c.

Only a very slow thaw, and I most of the snow will still be here tomorrow.

[Bobby]

Had a dusting here, looks like more to come tonight and tomorrow. Looks a bit better than yesterday in fact.

[TonyH]

Well 10am in the Rhymney Valley - and the road outside my house is white (in an icing sugar kind of way) although the fields look like they've had a heavy frost only. Didn't expect to get anything this far East. The weird thing is its still there - must be biting cold for it to still be there in the bright sunshine out there today.. Just off to Newquay in Ceredigion in the next few minutes - wonder how much has fallen down there?

Almost 1cm here, wont be any in Newquay at sea level its unlikely, but you should come through a few cm just before the coast where the streamer was overnight.

I think the models have mostly (including GFS) taken a turn for the worse re the potential easterly spell for a weeks time?

[andymusic]

Andy do you ever read your PM's

Have to say i don't think we'll see much out of this weekend around ponty / cardiff area further west could do well but lots of good stuff on the horizon so am excited

Sorry for not getting back to you sooner - I've just pm'd you now

Edited January 30, 2010 by JACKONE
to take phone number off post

[joo]

I was surprised when I opened the curtains to a blanket of white. Only a covering, but is very slow to melt, even in this glorious sunshine this morning.

[keithlucky]

Had a dusting here, looks like more to come tonight and tomorrow. Looks a bit better than yesterday in fact.

Personally i cant see much snow around saturday sunday looks a lot drier with the odd light shower but cold,loved to proven wrong though.

Edited January 30, 2010 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Lovely sunny weather here today - two snow showers last night left us with a slight covering - nothing we can't deal with - more on the way for tonight into tomorrow me thinks!

Well 10am in the Rhymney Valley - and the road outside my house is white (in an icing sugar kind of way) although the fields look like they've had a heavy frost only. Didn't expect to get anything this far East. The weird thing is its still there - must be biting cold for it to still be there in the bright sunshine out there today.. Just off to Newquay in Ceredigion in the next few minutes - wonder how much has fallen down there?

Enjoy your day in Newquay - lovely day with the sunshine to be out and about

[Bobby]

Personally i cant see much snow around saturday sunday looks a lot drier with the odd light shower but cold,loved to proven wrong though.

There's more snow showing tonight and tomorrow than for yesterday.

[keithlucky]

I hope you correct barb!but radar looks pretty clear.

Edited January 30, 2010 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Almost 1cm here, wont be any in Newquay at sea level its unlikely, but you should come through a few cm just before the coast where the streamer was overnight.

I think the models have mostly (including GFS) taken a turn for the worse re the potential easterly spell for a weeks time?

Not reading them right Tony - GFS is actually a mega upgrade in the short term - as was predicted and talked about in the model thread - not allowing the milder air in for long at all now - just one day next week - tuesday before plunging back into the cold air wednesday and then our journey towards more eastern promise (not an advert for fry's turkish delight) cause this ain't gonna be hot, it's gonna be a cold blast with (once the cold is in) lots of snow!

I hope you correct barb!but radar looks pretty clear.

This showery system will develope later into tonight ready for early in the morning and into tomorrow itself!

[keithlucky]

Not reading them right Tony - GFS is actually a mega upgrade in the short term - as was predicted and talked about in the model thread - not allowing the milder air in for long at all now - just one day next week - tuesday before plunging back into the cold air wednesday and then our journey towards more eastern promise (not an advert for fry's turkish delight) cause this ain't gonna be hot, it's gonna be a cold blast with (once the cold is in) lots of snow!

This showery system will develope later into tonight ready for early in the morning and into tomorrow itself!

Still hopecasting for me met showing possible light wintry showers for west wales but lost faith in met forecasters are useless , sad to say how accurate the forecaste is depends on forecaster.For example we all saw the streamer develope yesterday, met put a warning out once it started snowing even though there own charts showed a streamer develope days before.

Edited January 30, 2010 by keithlucky

[Bobby]

I hope you correct barb!but radar looks pretty clear.

Well they are coming in tonight and tomorrow, not developed yet. NMM also shows lots of snow showers coming in tonight and tomorrow.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Well i did see a snow shower last night, lasted around 5 mins....wasnt enough for a slight dusting though...hills ate it all up.

[andymusic]

Still hopecasting for me met showing possible light wintry showers for west wales but lost faith in met forecasters are useless , sad to say how accurate the forecaste is depends on forecaster.For example we all saw the streamer develope yesterday, met put a warning out once it started snowing even though there own charts showed a streamer develope days before.

Have some faith Kieth - this is just the start of another lengthy cold spell which if all goes to plan may well get quite severe towards the middle of Feb - so all to play for - this weekend was never gonna be really brill for snow - just showers - met office screwed up yesterday cause the streamer moved further east than they predicted, that's all - it's now back in it's rightful place over pembs! - more snow to come early hours tomorrow morning and tomorrow in the day - again though - don't expect loads - showers only - Wales really gets it's mega snow blizzards from atlantic fronts coming up against the cold highs - that's when we get the 3ft + drifts etc - spose it can mount up slowly with loads of showers, but to get it quickly the atlantic frontal snow is the best!

[J10]

I have attached a few charts showing the convective potential over the next 24 hours or so.

As you can see the Lifted Index are lowering indicating increasing risk of showery activity and shades of blue increasing an increase in potential energy for showers.

This also indicates the showers over Pembrokeshire perhaps dying out this afternoon, but showers starting to pile into North Wales later this evening, becoming more widespread overnight and into tomorrow.

And on these charts the numbers are increasing representing the J/kg figure indicating an increasing risk of showery activity overnight and into tomorrow.

The NMM doesn't really show than showers today but this increases tonight and more especially into tomorrow.

Of course, the showers during the day, are more likely to be a of a wintry mix rather than all of snow.

So in summary, showers dying out this afternoon, becoming established again in North Wales late this evening, before becoming mode widespread across many western areas overnight, and perhaps more widespread across Wales tomorrow.

I am not looking that far forward at the moment, as there is a lot of weather to go through before this happens and a lot can change in the next 48 hours.

[keithlucky]

Have some faith Kieth - this is just the start of another lengthy cold spell which if all goes to plan may well get quite severe towards the middle of Feb - so all to play for - this weekend was never gonna be really brill for snow - just showers - met office screwed up yesterday cause the streamer moved further east than they predicted, that's all - it's now back in it's rightful place over pembs! - more snow to come early hours tomorrow morning and tomorrow in the day - again though - don't expect loads - showers only - Wales really gets it's mega snow blizzards from atlantic fronts coming up against the cold highs - that's when we get the 3ft + drifts etc - spose it can mount up slowly with loads of showers, but to get it quickly the atlantic frontal snow is the best!

Personally i think easterley for next week is 90 percent certain cant understand the topsy turvy views in this forum after reading ian furgesson blog i cant understand why theres so many against the easterley taking place.

I have attached a few charts showing the convective potential over the next 24 hours or so.

As you can see the Lifted Index are lowering indicating increasing risk of showery activity and shades of blue increasing an increase in potential energy for showers.

This also indicates the showers over Pembrokeshire perhaps dying out this afternoon, but showers starting to pile into North Wales later this evening, becoming more widespread overnight and into tomorrow.

And on these charts the numbers are increasing representing the J/kg figure indicating an increasing risk of showery activity overnight and into tomorrow.

The NMM doesn't really show than showers today but this increases tonight and more especially into tomorrow.

Of course, the showers during the day, are more likely to be a of a wintry mix rather than all of snow.

So in summary, showers dying out this afternoon, becoming established again in North Wales late this evening, before becoming mode widespread across many western areas overnight, and perhaps more widespread across Wales tomorrow.

I am not looking that far forward at the moment, as there is a lot of weather to go through before this happens and a lot can change in the next 48 hours.

Thanks jackone seen the met forecaste on bbc 24 nothing forecaste lol just the odd shower.

[Ian Fergusson]

met office screwed up yesterday cause the streamer moved further east than they predicted, that's all - it's now back in it's rightful place over pembs!

????

MO prediction was spot-on so not sure which forecast you watched / read / heard. Read my blog entry yesterday evening regarding our opinions at that stage on the likely easterly spread of the feature overnight from classic 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' positioning. And it did exactly as anticipated - including delivering light snow as far east as Bristol into the early hours. See the UKV high-res PPN accumulation prediction I added at http://bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson yesterday evening. Note also the prog for tomorrow's snow showers.

Best

Ian

[Marcus_surfer]

Still nice and sunny, will post some pictures soon

[Cymro]

Snow has thawed in the sun here completely but no thaw at all in shaded areas and for 1cm -2cm of snow thats pretty good in my opinion.