Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[GraemeB]

That's the leading edge of it just hitting Stirling, so I'm guessing we'll get around an hour of it...fast fizzling out by the looks of it.

[Snowlover2]

I dont think we will even get 15 minutes :lol:

[Guest]

I dont think we will even get 15 minutes

I feel really bad for complaining that we only got an hour of light snow here. That precip band has just given up and gone home.

Edit: The secondary band/showers do seem to be pepping up a little, but everything's relative :lol:

Edited February 3, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Blizzardo]

Aye, if I'd been stood up this many times by a girlfriend I would have dumped her long ago.

The small clump of showers behind the main band seems to have pepped up a bit so maybe all is not lost.

edit: beat me to it

Edited February 3, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Cheggers]

Got home to nearly nothing, and a few clear bits appearing in the sky

[Guest]

It came, it went, it came, it went.....now, it's back. Coldmageddon: disappearing from a model run near you soon:

[Cheggers]

It came, it went, it came, it went.....now, it's back. Coldmageddon: disappearing from a model run near you soon:

Looks to be a lot of support for it as well, lets just hope Bruce Willis is not around to scupper it!!

[GraemeB]

Jeez - that's some cold there in those ensemblies...

That fits in with the 12z run for around that time frame...

Day After Tomorrow and all that...which probably equates to some chilly days up here, and a roaster down saff.

[Stuart]

no snow here so think i going to give up becuse there are none on the way

[Snowlover2]

Yup we got nothing and nothing is coming anytime soon...booooo

[blitzen]

Yep, the fife snow shield is working well it seems!

Edited February 3, 2010 by Blitzen

[Snowlover2]

When its forecast we get none, when its not forecast we get heaps lol. Mind you meto did not have us down as getting any!

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVA89.png

The problem - the front has occluded! Basically, in frontal situations, only warm fronts bring widespread snow IF the band has to get over the hills. This is why northern England is bearing the brunt of it. Warm fronts deliver, cold fronts sometimes do, but occluded fronts are just useless - must remember that in future! What was shown a few days ago was the warm front/occlusion boundary over Scotland, meaning heavier, more prolonged snow, but this changed and we're now looking at a mainly dry night for eastern Scotland - oh well, at least SS will get home safely!

[blitzen]

Still LS, if the models can hang on and develop their predictions, then finally it might be Fife's turn. i think we are due a wee bit of luck before this winter departs. Not saying it hasn't been a good one because it has. Would be better though and more memorable if we can land at least one 'biggie'

[Snowlover2]

dry!

[Guest]

http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVA89.png

The problem - the front has occluded! Basically, in frontal situations, only warm fronts bring widespread snow IF the band has to get over the hills. This is why northern England is bearing the brunt of it. Warm fronts deliver, cold fronts sometimes do, but occluded fronts are just useless - must remember that in future! What was shown a few days ago was the warm front/occlusion boundary over Scotland, meaning heavier, more prolonged snow, but this changed and we're now looking at a mainly dry night for eastern Scotland - oh well, at least SS will get home safely!

If an occluded front stalls it can give two or three inches. This happened last winter in what was that year's "best" snowfall, I think most of central Scotland got some snow from that one. But yes, they are basically rubbish for snow.

It is snowing here again now, maybe my girlfriend will turn up after all, just late as ever (read the thread back if you don't get it :))

[Mondy]

It would've been better if didn't snow - that was a tease and a half - 30 mins of light to moderate, then gone.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Still LS, if the models can hang on and develop their predictions, then finally it might be Fife's turn. i think we are due a wee bit of luck before this winter departs. Not saying it hasn't been a good one because it has. Would be better though and more memorable if we can land at least one 'biggie'

All we really need for a biggie is either a warm front bumping into the cold air and stalling over us a la march '06 or a 48 hour easterly with uppers of -10 or 36 hours with uppers around -15. The latter looks the more plausible in the medium term anyway, simply because the cold surface air is only likely to arrive from an easterly with similarities to the one shown above. I will edit this in a minute to update on the ECM 12z.

edit: FULL MODEL AGREEMENT ON EASTERLY BY ABOUT 120 HOURS!!!!! http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?03-18

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-126.png?12

http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_120.png

Uppers at -5 already at +120 on the ECM, with nothing to stop the coldest uppers reaching our shores. My confidence of an easterly/northeasterly has sky rocketed - around 80% for me - I mean full model support at this stage is almost conclusive, note the word ALMOST, and the other 20% which wouldn't even be vaguely cold or snowy, but my money is now on the cold solutions.

If tomorrow morning's runs back this up, I don't see it going any other way, so the next 12-24 hours will be the key to a cold spell, I feel.

edit: This is the chart of the century, with no doubt, something incredible coming our way if that came off http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-168.GIF?03-0

Edited February 3, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Blizzardo]

Started snowing moderately in Glasgow.

[GraemeB]

All we really need for a biggie is either a warm front bumping into the cold air and stalling over us a la march '06 or a 48 hour easterly with uppers of -10 or 36 hours with uppers around -15. The latter looks the more plausible in the medium term anyway, simply because the cold surface air is only likely to arrive from an easterly with similarities to the one shown above. I will edit this in a minute to update on the ECM 12z.

edit: FULL MODEL AGREEMENT ON EASTERLY BY ABOUT 120 HOURS!!!!! http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?03-18

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-126.png?12

http://www.meteogrou...thgt850_120.png

Uppers at -5 already at +120 on the ECM, with nothing to stop the coldest uppers reaching our shores. My confidence of an easterly/northeasterly has sky rocketed - around 80% for me - I mean full model support at this stage is almost conclusive, note the word ALMOST, and the other 20% which wouldn't even be vaguely cold or snowy, but my money is now on the cold solutions.

If tomorrow morning's runs back this up, I don't see it going any other way, so the next 12-24 hours will be the key to a cold spell, I feel.

Cue MTM (Model thread Meltdown), swiftly followed by a brief spell of TOORP (Toys oot o Ra Pram)

[Snowlover2]

Exciting stuff Lss. I can only imagine whats going on in the model thread right now, might go over and take a peek hehe

[GraemeB]

It's falling at a rate of 3 SPH (snowflakes per hour), of which I successfully just caught one of them square in my eyeball.

Do Claims Direct cover me for Actual Body Snow Damage ?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Cue MTM (Model thread Meltdown), swiftly followed by a brief spell of TOORP (Toys oot o Ra Pram)

MTM has begun, TOORP hopefully confined to southwesternmost counties

[Guest]

Cue MTM (Model thread Meltdown), swiftly followed by a brief spell of TOORP (Toys oot o Ra Pram)

I like it!

If this goes pearshaped it will be TOORPing down all night. Prepare to be TOORPed in by the morning

[GraemeB]

I like it!

If this goes pearshaped it will be TOORPing down all night. Prepare to be TOORPed in by the morning