Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[Cheggers]

Good evening

been watching the weather rollercoaster the past few days and saw the talk of snow for scotland. Just wondering if Perth get any of this snow on tommorow night, it's seems we are the only area in Scotland with no weather warning?? I'm sure that's what happend on 26, 27 dec we had no weather warning we got a dump of snow!!

Be thankful no Meto warning as this normally means

I think I may have upset the model thread -

'http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-0-12.png?18

What is this I see? A northwesterly? Potential there for some breakdown snow in Scotland! Well done to all those who progged this!

Had to be done! '

I'm on the naughty step aren't I?

LS

BFTP will be smirking in a corner somewhere then!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ha ha.

I ignore the model thread now. Trying to get sense from it is near impossible.

Is that PL not generating some serious showers of the very NE coast now?

Yep. Doubt they'll make it this way but NL, LadyP etc have a good chance of catching something. Enjoy!

edit: As we await the crucial model (NMM) to come out, have a read of GP on the expert thread - northeasterly in the pipeline? As usual, a pinch of salt needs to be taken but the one thing that goes for this is that the GFS is NOT showing this in the long run! GP was sitting on the fence for February with so many mixed signals but there appears to be enough evidence in the signals for him to take notice.

Edited February 2, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Yep. Doubt they'll make it this way but NL, LadyP etc have a good chance of catching something. Enjoy!

edit: As we await the crucial model (NMM) to come out, have a read of GP on the expert thread - northeasterly in the pipeline? As usual, a pinch of salt needs to be taken but the one thing that goes for this is that the GFS is NOT showing this in the long run! GP was sitting on the fence for February with so many mixed signals but there appears to be enough evidence in the signals for him to take notice.

Would take an NE over an E any day. Lots more north sea travel time to pick up moisture and a generally guaranteed cold source from the outset.

NE is what gave me the ideal picnic bench; before it was just standard B'n'Q.

Shall investigate.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Would take an NE over an E any day. Lots more north sea travel time to pick up moisture and a generally guaranteed cold source from the outset.

NE is what gave me the ideal picnic bench; before it was just standard B'n'Q.

Shall investigate.

On second thoughts, NE is terrible! If it was ENE it would've been my picnic table!!

But then again, the legendary 23rd was a northeasterly too, so as long as it's a straight northeasterly or ENE rather than NNE I'll be ok - but having said that, the 18Z GFS looks about as far away from that as late December 2009 was from a heatwave!

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-180.png?18

Cold zonality? More like tropical zonality http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-174.png?18

The GFS does slightly exaggerate things though, e.g. that low pressure system! Now that would kill the entire ski industry of Europe for this year, never mind Scotland!

[Mondy]

*cough*

What's this taking over of the naughty step? You gotta earn points to at least get on bottom rung, believe me :wacko:

Btw, should I wear my balaclava tomorrow for work, or borrow the wife's Burkha? Just to prevent the cold air (WHICH HAS NEVER REALLY LEFT SCOTLAND FOR MONTHS) moving south.

;- )

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Result of a polar low.

Helmsdale.

That's what it'll be like on my drive home tomorrow.

And LSS you're right; a little more to the ENE makes sure Aberdeen area shares with us rather than keeping it all to themselves.

Edited February 2, 2010 by scottish skier

[Snooz]

Evening!

have been out and see I've not missed much on the model front

Yes LS, the naughty step for you - (BUT Ha Ha!)

agreed no METO warning is a good sign, they very rarely gave us one when we were getting all tat tasty snow earlier, and even then it was just a "be aware"

Anyway another white day here, quite a few tasty thick showers this afternoon (giant flakes) followed by some light snow & graupel satuff.. depth isnow around 4 inches in the garden again! and I see the radar is offering up a few maore chances of a hit here and there.. I think this is because we'll not see tomorrows frontal stuff this far NE.

SS, I do think your biggest problems tomorrow if any will be around Edinburgh and central - you can see the sate of te A90 at Ellon on traffic.org (when it'#s working itsoften unavailable) - and it's quite clear for now the run through Aberdeen and up to St Fergus - however tonights heaviest showers could be reserved for the more eastern areas - which if thy get a direct hit could affect the Peterhead/Fraserburgh road. Hard to say really obviously until tomorrow.

Might be an idea to keep an idea on the Scools closure list as an early guide to what thetransport think in that area.. in fact most of the school already on that list are already around the Ellon/Peterhead area though tey would be a bit off the main roads..

what time you planning leaving, I could phone one of our employees who lives up that way and check it out first thing for you if you want?

[Mondy]

No Polar Low in this:

Just a mess really

[Northernlights]

Result of a polar low.

Helmsdale.

That's what it'll be like on my drive home tomorrow.

And LSS you're right; a little more to the ENE makes sure Aberdeen area shares with us rather than keeping it all to themselves.

Can see the shower to north giving this across the Firth so maybe we will wake up to another covering!!!!

[Snooz]

And LSS you're right; a little more to the ENE makes sure Aberdeen area shares with us rather than keeping it all to themselves.

but honestly as per last reply I think it's just ours just now, yours tomorrow, in fact Edin/Glasgow got some earlier today didn't they? honest I've tried getting the hairdrier out to blow it your way a bit, but it just melts mine so..

[Snooz]

Monds.. sorry you're so high up the rungs of the naughty step there's spaces below you now hehe.. (and yes I think the Balaclava would suit!)

and re that pic the system that is now breaking down just east of NE was earlier on marked as a PL.. it was as early as last night that LadyP noticed it marked as such on the chart - I actually think it looks like it's going to bypass the east coast for te most part, and even the showers coming across the Firth are breaking down a lot, but hey what do I know, it only takes a couple to give a further covering !

[LadyPakal]

No Polar Low in this:

Just a mess really

It's here: http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/KNMI/LOC/LOC_20100202_2100.html

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

but honestly as per last reply I think it's just ours just now, yours tomorrow, in fact Edin/Glasgow got some earlier today didn't they? honest I've tried getting the hairdrier out to blow it your way a bit, but it just melts mine so..

Thanks for the v. kind offer. Just one of those 'can't make mind up' times. It would not be a huge problem if I don't go; certainly not worth getting stuck somewhere for, but would rather get up and get it done than delay. Client would be fine about it (can phone him then just do teleconf if needs be - thanks), esp if it snows up there tonight. St Fergus gas terminal on a wild february afternoon . Lovely weather for ducks arctic hares.

Have resolved to sleep on it and see tomorrow morning.

Enjoy your snow tonight - you might yet see quite a bit off that comma/PL/whatever it is running south. I'll hopefully enjoy mine from home tomorrow rather than a snowbound queue on M90

[GraemeB]

Um - what's happened overnight ?

Beeb had warnings and heavy snow for Stirling but this morning, on the early weather as well as the site, it's all but gone ?

Is the front moving up from the SW fizzling out as it moves ?

See, this is why I hate trying to learn about the weather - infuriating it most certainly is

Also - is the PL still there ?

[Snowplough33]

Thank goodness......I thought the beasterly was cancelled.......

[Guest]

Well the cold air is here, all we need now is some precipitation.

Minus 6C this morning and a cracking huge big pinky red sky. What more do you need to show that snow is coming?

The SSF (Scottish Sky Forecast) has been right every time this winter. I hope it doesn't screw up this time.

Edited February 3, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Snowplough33]

Well the cold air is here, all we need now is some precipitation.

Minus 6C this morning and a cracking huge big pinky red sky. What more do you need to show that snow is coming?

The SSF (Scottish Sky Forecast) has been right every time this winter. I hope it doesn't screw up this time.

SSF ??? How far east / north do they see the band moving. I think its a given the precip will be snow, but a few of the forecasts show it dieing as it moves NE. I dont think I can take another "close but no cigar". I guess the flip side is that there is a easterly coming and its only 2 weeks away!!!

Did I read that thread will be stopping today??

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Blizzardo]

Very cold start this morning with temps just now around -6c in Glasgow and noticed its -7c at Edinburgh airport.

The precip some of us should get later today is just moving into Northern Ireland and turning to snow. Its a lighter band followed by some heavier stuff. It seems that its currently forecast to move through a bit quicker than initially forecast but could be quite heavy for a time.

[Snowlover2]

Gmtv had whole of entral/tayside/fife under snow at 9m yet meto has no weather warning for us. Temp here is -3.9 and DP is -7.2

[Northernlights]

Lovely sunny morning and currently -4c,no more snow overnight but can see the last of the snow showers fading away to the NE over the North Sea. A real wintry view, something I think we will see a lot of this spring just when you thought winter was over.

One of my best memories of the early sixties was going on the bus as a kid a for a day out to Aberdeen in mid April to include the cinema and coming out of the cinema to a sudden snowstorm on Union Street and then watching the snow showers coming in off the sea in the late afternoon and evening. Coming home on the bus in the evening we we looked back and watched towering shower cumulus highlighted pink by the setting sun in what I now understand are streamers marching into Aberdeenshire behind us as we headed west.

[Snowplough33]

Gmtv had whole of entral/tayside/fife under snow at 9m yet meto has no weather warning for us. Temp here is -3.9 and DP is -7.2

Hope the band intensifies........not too great at the moment. And a long way to travel

[blitzen]

Morning people,

quite a cold start this morning. temps of -6c at 8am and have risen to -3.9c now. Not sure what the situation is for snowfall here yet but I thought last night that indications were for it to lessen as it moved northwards. A radar watching job today I should think! Models a lot more encouraging overnight and I see Scotland is holding on to the easterly flow at the weekend. Just hope that the uppers are cold enough now. ECM particularly good this morning as it gives us an easterly right to the end of the run. (Potency still to be decided!)

[blitzen]

Just caught News 24 forecast and there does look to be a lot of fragmentation going on by the time it reaches here. Temperatures do look to be quite low tho' so any precipitation we get is not going to turn back to rain and will probably freeze. Yesterdays fall has only thawed here where the sun got to it. Still quite a lot left in my garden. looks as if there is more, heavier precipitation coming in tomorrow too and if, hopefully, temperatures remain on the low side, then we may pick up some more tomorrow. The way it is going now, we may not become mild at all for the foreseeable. We live in hope! B)

[Guest]

Just caught News 24 forecast and there does look to be a lot of fragmentation going on by the time it reaches here. Temperatures do look to be quite low tho' so any precipitation we get is not going to turn back to rain and will probably freeze. Yesterdays fall has only thawed here where the sun got to it. Still quite a lot left in my garden. looks as if there is more, heavier precipitation coming in tomorrow too and if, hopefully, temperatures remain on the low side, then we may pick up some more tomorrow. The way it is going now, we may not become mild at all for the foreseeable. We live in hope! B)

I certainly can't see 14C being reached any time soon, although such warmth would be a glorious novelty.

As for the rain band fragmenting, BBC Breakfast said much the same and the 06Z GFS shows it falling apart quite a bit. 00Z NMM shows it fragmenting but hanging around as light patchy rain/snow in places for several hours.

Only time will tell, it's a case of radar watching and finger crossing. I do feel that the west will do better than the east today, for a wee change :) Although I don't expect much more than an inch or two this evening

Edit: It is interesting to note that the NMM didn't pick up on the rather cold temps across some parts of Scotland overnight, the lowest it went for was -4C, while -10C was reached at Tulloch Bridge. I know all these models struggle with temps at times though.

Edited February 3, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[blitzen]

morning Catch. Ahem! It's unbelievable what the GFS is producing this morning from as early as T76! What's going on?