Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[<<Ryan>>]

how much snow have you all got?? Got around 3cm from last shower. (near turriff)

[LadyPakal]

Over the weekend around 2-3 inches I think, added to the (partially melted & compacted) 4 or so from earlier falls. I've not measured, apart from the finger test, and it's difficult to gauge when it gets blown about like it has been.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yet another day when you wish the flow was northeasterly or maybe even WNWsterly or another day when you wish those pesky highlands weren't taking all the snow!

Can't complain though, had a nice clear sunny day with a light dusting with the prospect of maybe something more significant in time for rush hour on Thursday after the coldest December/ January since before archduke Ferdinand was assassinated and the Titanic sunk!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Yes sure! (providing I actually manage to construct the thing!)..

seriously if you do get stuck do shout out on here, got a spare room even if the igloo is uninhabitable

I'll take room 104, as shown in the brochure (attached).

You never know. Snow is great for community spirit.

Cheers

Edited January 31, 2010 by scottish skier

[Cheggers]

I'm off as early start tomorrow. BFTP has said that he awaits the 12Z tomorrow, so should be interesting. Night.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm off as early start tomorrow. BFTP has said that he awaits the 12Z tomorrow, so should be interesting. Night.

Hmm, I wonder whether +168 will show 18C or -18C?

Maybe both!

Night all, enjoy the next model disappointment/sudden upgrade we didn't expect at all tomorrow!

LS

[Sunny Leith]

Ditto SS, I regard the models beyond about 4 or 5 days out as partly-entertainment, partly indicative of possible trends and (as we've seen over last few days) partly an act of personal or group wish fulfillment. I know some people were at one time keeping archives (maybe they still do) to see whether actual patterns matched expected patterns. A difficult thing to assess visually I'd think ... but I have seen folk refer to some kind of statistical evaluation of the skill of these models. Does that actually exist anywhere do you know - or is it all just more hot-air on the model thread ???

Could not agree more. LS; you've been volunteered as scottish thread official model spokesman.

I think folk on the model thread (and us a little too sometimes) need to stop getting hung up on stupidly cold/beasts from the east (in particular) etc. No amount of model watching is going to actually change the weather; it will do what it wants too; we just have to sit back and watch. We are lucky up here in that our snow can come from more directions than down south.

I still love checking out the prospects and radar watching when we've got cold, but the more time I've spent here, the more obvious it has become that we just can't predict anything with any certainty more than a few days in advance. This winter has really proved this and shown us that the winters of old are still possible.

The rest of the winter will pan out as planned, buy who, well the earth, atmosphere, oceans, sun etc. What the plan is, who knows, but I love it so far and, based on previous winters, I'm hopeful were on a bit of a cooling trend again.

Edited January 31, 2010 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ditto SS, I regard the models beyond about 4 or 5 days out as partly-entertainment, partly indicative of possible trends and (as we've seen over last few days) partly an act of personal or group wish fulfillment. I know some people were at one time keeping archives (maybe they still do) to see whether actual patterns matched expected patterns. A difficult thing to assess visually I'd think ... but I have seen folk refer to some kind of statistical evaluation of the skill of these models. Does that actually exist anywhere do you know - or is it all just more hot-air on the model thread ???

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX_00Z.gif

They exist alright. The ECM is virtually always top, the UKMO is usually second, with the GEM(CMC) and GFS fighting it out for third place with NOGAPS always last! However, they usually drop and rise together, with a model hardly ever getting very high %s as the others struggle.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

My morning musings before work (don't visit when at work as I'd get nothing done)....

Seems while the general trend is still for the jet to take a southerly track with high pressure to the NW over Greenland, we're still just flirting with cold until at least the end of the week?

528 well south into the mid atlantic by late in the week; but - to quote a well known childrens cartoon - "we would have got away with it if it wasn't for that pesky low".

Euro high set to join up with the Siberian high by Friday. Does that bode well?

Meto still mentioning colder on their 6-15: "Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later."

Edited February 1, 2010 by scottish skier

[Blizzardo]

Possibly some light snow later for quite a few places later today before it turns to rain on low ground, probably nothing to get excited over.

A bit milder for a while overnight before more cold air digs in. As this happens it could bring with it a few snow showers mainly to eastern parts during tomorrow.

Wednesday is still looking interesting with some heavy rain slowly moving up from the south west. As this meets the cold air there could be some heavy snow for a while.

Longer term the models are again trending towards cold next week but its still on a knife edge and its down to who has best modelled the northern blocking and how much energy there is moving across the Atlantic.

My gut feel is still for cold simply because the models in the last year or two have continually over estimated the energy in the Atlantic and then downgraded this nearer the time. A little less energy increases the likelihood of the block holding out and some of the energy dropping south east and then assisting the draw of cold air from the north east.

Still more ups and downs to come though.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Gilly]

Winds becoming more WNW now and temps still around -0C. Again all the showers zipping past to the north of us.

One thing is guaranteed.....when the rain comes it will be a bullseye!!!:unsure:

[blitzen]

Well it looks like there is once again a chance of the cold returning next week. Had a look at the model threads, and after the GFS fiasco have definitely decided never to look past T120 hence the surprise. What a great explanation from EITS about what to look for in the future to raise the chances of this coming off. This, for me, will make watching the models a bit more interesting, rather than relying on the colours and wind direction! Rather cloudy here today with temp at 2.1c dew points -1.5c and wind WSW. Hopeful for something a bit more substantial on Wednesday tho'.

[Gilly]

Well it looks like there is once again a chance of the cold returning next week. Had a look at the model threads, and after the GFS fiasco have definitely decided never to look past T120 hence the surprise. What a great explanation from EITS about what to look for in the future to raise the chances of this coming off. This, for me, will make watching the models a bit more interesting, rather than relying on the colours and wind direction! Rather cloudy here today with temp at 2.1c dew points -1.5c and wind WSW. Hopeful for something a bit more substantial on Wednesday tho'.

Agreed Blitzen, I suspect it may turn very very cold........but dry.

The models will have the posters on the Model Output Discussion Forum dancing on hot coals, more heated discussions with each different outputs, no doubt giving us further entertainment. :lol:

[Guest]

Where did that big cold spell go?? :o I turn my back for 2 days and PFFFZZZTTTT!!! Gone Now that has never happened before, has it?? :o

Anyway, the radar says snow is heading this way soon, local temps and dewpoints say perhaps not. Only time will tell

Wednesday afternoon looking like a good snow to rain event Smilie overload today :lol:

[Gilly]

Where did that big cold spell go?? :o I turn my back for 2 days and PFFFZZZTTTT!!! Gone Now that has never happened before, has it?? :lol:

Welcome back Catch.....Hey that happens in almost every run at the moment :o

[Guest]

Welcome back Catch.....Hey that happens in almost every run at the moment

So it's back to the beasterly in this afternoon's 12Z? That would be "nice"

I can confirm that while the radar says it is snowing here it is in fact not doing much at all. Very light rain, if anything. Hopefully this will get a bit heavier and turn to snow, but I am not holding my breath as I would pass out.

[blitzen]

Agreed Blitzen, I suspect it may turn very very cold........but dry.

The models will have the posters on the Model Output Discussion Forum dancing on hot coals, more heated discussions with each different outputs, no doubt giving us further entertainment.

Hi Gilly,

Hopefully the cold spell is on again but I will be suicidal if it is a dry one!!! Surely with a cold spell of 1 - 2 weeks at least forecast, you would think that we will manage to gain something out of it? Here's hoping anyway and I suppose the trick is to get it here first!

[LadyPakal]

Been checking the traffic cams, light snow at Altnafeadh, Cluanie & Drumochter, at Helmsdale the laying snow is almost glowing - looks lovely, some nice drifting by the hedgerow on the Ballindalloch A95 West cam, amazing snow cutoff between the Aberdeen & Laurencekirk cams.

Yes, there are easterly rumblings building up on the mod thread - can I face going through THAT again...?

Edited February 1, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Guest]

Radar says snow, reality is "NAW!!". Cold wet rain here, not even reaching zero on the Telford sleet scale :lol:

[LadyPakal]

Radar says snow, reality is "NAW!!". Cold wet rain here, not even reaching zero on the Telford sleet scale :lol:

Shame - you haven't had anything from this so far... Still, winter is far from over I suspect - there may yet be a sting in its tail.

The mountains have done their usual trick here and stopped the precip from reaching us - apart from some melt (we actually reached 3 degrees for a wee while - well almost) our snow is safe for the moment.

Edited February 1, 2010 by LadyPakal

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi. ECM this morning was pretty good, almost into reliable timeframe as well!

It's 3.7C here but with the dewpoint exactly 0C I suspect a little sleet before the higher humidity works in. I'll update stuff in a bit once I've seen if the GFS has adopted this easterly too!

And RE Blitzen, remember the last spell that was progged to be dry?? December 23rd and all!

LS

[LadyPakal]

Hi. ECM this morning was pretty good, almost into reliable timeframe as well!

It's 3.7C here but with the dewpoint exactly 0C I suspect a little sleet before the higher humidity works in. I'll update stuff in a bit once I've seen if the GFS has adopted this easterly too!

And RE Blitzen, remember the last spell that was progged to be dry?? December 23rd and all!

LS

UKMO T+120:

I thought this might be interesting - I saved some SST charts from a previous year (2008) and picked the closest one to the end Jan. Some interesting differences - esp around Norfolk, brrr!

Edited February 1, 2010 by LadyPakal

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO T+120: http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?01-17

Not too bad, and to be fair it does look, at the moment, like the continental feed won't be cold initially, though if there is decent link up to Greenland and lows undercutting then the cold uppers will be forced westwards in a fairly short time. Hard to tell at this stage but there is a definite development in moving the trough further south and the PV further west than initially expected.

[Guest]

Shame - you haven't had anything from this so far... Still, winter is far from over I suspect - there may yet be a sting in its tail.

The mountains have done their usual trick here and stopped the precip from reaching us - apart from some melt (we actually reached 3 degrees for a wee while - well almost) our snow is safe for the moment.

After previous experience of winter where I live I tend to give up on seeing snow in mid-April, so still plenty of time for some fun

[Ross B]

That would of been pretty wild if that rain/sleet had been snow, absolute buckets of it coming down on the way home over the moors!

Ah well, can't wait til the 7-day March gale force North-Westerly