Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[blitzen]

Years and years of waiting for a polar low, and then it just drifts away in the wind :(

It appears that that is not all that is drifting away in the wind! Have you been in the model thread? : Much wrist slitting and gnashing of teeth!

Edited February 2, 2010 by Blitzen

[JoeShmoe]

Whats the timings for tomorrow - whens the ppn expected to get here? Still expect it to be very margianal here TBH

[LomondSnowstorm]

Models back from beasterly to mild southwesterlies to beasterly back yesterday to southwesterlies today. Expect the ECM to pull out the run of the century just to confuse everyone further!

Awaiting the NMM 12Z, which is far more important than anything after that. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that if tomorrow night delivers a good few inches of frontal snow, it could be 14C and drizzly for the rest of the winter and I wouldn't give a damn!

LS

[blitzen]

Looks as if our snow band will be dwindling as it moves closer to us tomorrow going by latest News 24 forecast! Down to 1-3cms now. No change there then!

Edited February 2, 2010 by Blitzen

[Sunny Leith]

Well they didn't call this mornings back-edge snow in these parts ... and I'd treat their snow forecasts for here tomorrow with the usual suspicion. From 24-36 hours out from now, it could be better or worse than they forecast, lots of margin for error on this one I feel.

Looks as if our snow band will be dwindling as it moves closer to us tomorrow going by latest News 24 forecast! Down to 1-3cms now. No change there then!

Edited February 2, 2010 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well they didn't call this mornings back-edge snow in these parts ... and I'd treat their snow forecasts for here tomorrow with the usual suspicion. From 24-36 hours out from now, it could be better or worse than they forecast, lots of margin for error on this one I feel.

Agreed, I think the met office record on snow forecasting shows that things can change quite a lot in a few hours and that the forecast they give is not always the full story. I'll leave Shuggee to post the NMM charts as I'm off out in a minute but the main thing is that it looks like snow for all up to midnight. Heaviest seems to be further west but how far east the heaviest pulses get will obviously change in the next few hours and ultimately until it comes on the radar.

LS

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Agreed, I think the met office record on snow forecasting shows that things can change quite a lot in a few hours and that the forecast they give is not always the full story. I'll leave Shuggee to post the NMM charts as I'm off out in a minute but the main thing is that it looks like snow for all up to midnight. Heaviest seems to be further west but how far east the heaviest pulses get will obviously change in the next few hours and ultimately until it comes on the radar.

LS

Evening all.

This leaves me in a bit of predicament. Supposed to be driving to St. Fergus from here tomorrow. Planned to get there lunchtime, heading home in the late afternoon/early evening.

Now thinking that could be a bit of a stupid idea.

Work meeting with important clients, but I could likely reschedule.

Colleage got caught in snow doing the same journey and it took him over 6 hours to get home.

Will not make a decision until tomorrow morning, but it would be nice to hear any expert thoughts on general snow chances for the Aberdeen-Edinbrugh-Borders route tomorrow late afternoon.

3-4 cm here. All frozen up now. Not much loss at all during the day.

[Northernlights]

Fairly cold all day with maximum of 2c currently 0c and few light snow showers which did not ly much till late afternoon. Plenty of older snow still about and the countryside really looks wintry.Where we go fom here is difficult to know but with cold ground and low sea temperatures my guess is that outbreaks of snow and frost will never be far away until late April or even early May a traditional Scottish spring!!!

[Snowlover2]

Current temp is 0.5°C (32.9°F) and DP is -4.7

Current temp is 0.5°C (32.9°F) and DP is -4.7<BR>

[Mondy]

My ground is all white, still

[Cheggers]

My ground is all white, still

Mine too, very nice this morning. Went to bed last night, it was wet and 4C!!!

Not much in Glasgow centre when I left the Royal at 6 this evening, but could be amusing tomorrow night...

[LadyPakal]

Some good showers coming through now - laying nicely so infilling the bald spots!

[shuggee]

Agreed, I think the met office record on snow forecasting shows that things can change quite a lot in a few hours and that the forecast they give is not always the full story. I'll leave Shuggee to post the NMM charts as I'm off out in a minute but the main thing is that it looks like snow for all up to midnight. Heaviest seems to be further west but how far east the heaviest pulses get will obviously change in the next few hours and ultimately until it comes on the radar.

LS

Your wish is my command

19h00 tomorrow:

Precipitation moving in from the south and west, but weakening all the time:

2m temps:

Dew points:

And 850hpa temps:

[howham]

I was up in Dingwall today and there was only a light flurry. Not really much snow around Inverness itself at all. Returning home, I got to Fochabers heading East along the A96 and things became much more wintry. Apparently lots of snow showers all day here and quite a few graupelly ones too (in contrast to the weekend's large flaked variety).

[LadyPakal]

Stupid refresh! Sorry about the repeat post.

Edited February 2, 2010 by LadyPakal

[LadyPakal]

That polar low is pounding Shetland at the moment.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Nice charts Shuggee. At least it looks the right side of marginal! In fact, as the PPN approaches, slightly colder surface air gets pushed my way, temporarily at least, which means the more heavy precipitation, the less marginal and the more snow for Fife and Dundee!!

[howham]

What chance a wee jaunt down Aberdeenshire way for that PL later??

Edited February 2, 2010 by howham

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Nice charts Shuggee. At least it looks the right side of marginal! In fact, as the PPN approaches, slightly colder surface air gets pushed my way, temporarily at least, which means the more heavy precipitation, the less marginal and the more snow for Fife and Dundee!!

Hi LSS,

Sitting here fretting about driving back from Aberdeen tomorrow late afternoon.

Any thoughts about how cert this snow is? I'm not worried about getting stuck in snow, but after spending 3.5 hours or so getting to St Fergus, I don't want to crawl home in twice that time with folk slipping all over the place around me. Would be better just rescheduling.

Will obviously make my mind up in the morning when I see how strong it is on the radar as it begins to move in, but any thoughts would be appreciated.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi LSS,

Sitting here fretting about driving back from Aberdeen tomorrow late afternoon.

Any thoughts about how cert this snow is? I'm not worried about getting stuck in snow, but after spending 3.5 hours or so getting to St Fergus, I don't want to crawl home in twice that time with folk slipping all over the place around me. Would be better just rescheduling.

Will obviously make my mind up in the morning when I see how strong it is on the radar as it begins to move in, but any thoughts would be appreciated.

I think the way from Edinburgh to Lauder is bound to be the worst, but it would almost certainly be worse (at least late afternoon) if you lived in e.g. Lanark. So perk up weegies, tomorrow evening could be your snowiest in a while

The precipitation, as Shuggee said, looks like it might weaken further northeast, but I couldn't bet against significant snowfall anywhere southwest of Aberdeen really - somewhere is bound to get battered, but my guess is that it will be central-southern areas like Biggar, Galashiels to Newton Mearns (just a guess) that will take the brunt of it before midnight, though if it keeps up after that I think Perthshire could easily take a pasting as well.

Maximum depth is probably 20 or so cm, though most are likely to see maybe an inch or two.

LS

[Ross B]

This will be close tomorrow, don't think I will manage to make it home from work before it starts. A long night sleeping on the mate probably

The snow was a welcome surprise this morning, mostly just a covering everywhere from the east side of Glasgow through to Edinburgh on the commute.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I think the way from Edinburgh to Lauder is bound to be the worst, but it would almost certainly be worse (at least late afternoon) if you lived in e.g. Lanark. So perk up weegies, tomorrow evening could be your snowiest in a while

The precipitation, as Shuggee said, looks like it might weaken further northeast, but I couldn't bet against significant snowfall anywhere southwest of Aberdeen really - somewhere is bound to get battered, but my guess is that it will be central-southern areas like Biggar, Galashiels to Newton Mearns (just a guess) that will take the brunt of it before midnight, though if it keeps up after that I think Perthshire could easily take a pasting as well.

Maximum depth is probably 20 or so cm, though most are likely to see maybe an inch or two.

LS

Thanks. That's what I figured; not too bad most of the way back to the central belt, then things might get tricky, esp over Soutra etc.

Think I'll go to bed tonight assuming I'm going and keeping time up there to a minimum. By the morning I should have a better idea how heavy it is and the speed it's moving.

Soutra after 7.00 pm I can handle as there's little traffic. What is the worst is motorways in the snow. One silly driver going to fast and sliding - cue road becomes snowbound car park.

Edit: Meto decide to upgrade the eastern borders to orange for tomorrow. Sod's law.

Edited February 2, 2010 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think I may have upset the model thread -

johnholmes, on 02 February 2010 - 21:17 , said:

don't worry if the 18z shows a cold set up, be it northerly or easterly, there will be lots of relief and no doubt some rather incorrect back slapping.

'http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-0-12.png?18

What is this I see? A northwesterly? Potential there for some breakdown snow in Scotland! Well done to all those who progged this!

Had to be done! '

I'm on the naughty step aren't I?

LS

Edited February 2, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Allyw12]

Good evening

been watching the weather rollercoaster the past few days and saw the talk of snow for scotland. Just wondering if Perth get any of this snow on tommorow night, it's seems we are the only area in Scotland with no weather warning?? I'm sure that's what happend on 26, 27 dec we had no weather warning we got a dump of snow!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I think I may have upset the model thread -

What is this I see? A northwesterly? Potential there for some breakdown snow in Scotland! Well done to all those who progged this!

Had to be done! '

I'm on the naughty step aren't I?

LS

Ha ha.

I ignore the model thread now. Trying to get sense from it is near impossible.

Is that PL not generating some serious showers of the very NE coast now?

Edited February 2, 2010 by scottish skier