Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 21:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Evening all.

Just came back across Soutra and it was just above freezing with whiteout. Snow trying it's best to lie and beginning to succeed.

Cold rain here though and 2.3 C. If we get a frost, roads will be well slippy tomorrow.

For the model thread; I have to laugh. It's just a continuous rollercoaster in there and all for what? If a serious cold spell is coming, it'll come and no amount of model watching will change anything. There do seem to be some people who treat the charts like gospel, even though they perpetually change.

Loving the meto and BBC longer range outlooks. I always had a gut feeling winter was not over yet, lets hope it's not just my love of chillis that was causing this.

[Snowplough33]

You gotta love FI from ECM tonight........even though it may change(sorry even though it will chage)...........fun to look at!!

LSS or others...........is there any chance of such a development, is there any other background support for this or is this just complete dreamland???

Edited February 1, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Norrance]

If heights rise to the North West as predicted by some models and the high pressure to the NE retrogresses then something similar is possible with a long Easterly fetch. Lows to undercut and there we go. However that chart does look a bit strange!

Edited February 1, 2010 by Norrance

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

You gotta love FI from ECM tonight........even though it may change(sorry even though it will chage)...........fun to look at!!

LSS or others...........is there any chance of such a development, is there any other background support for this or is this just complete dreamland???

That won't change, no way. That is what I predicted weeks ago. Cometh the beast! Told you all there was no mild atlantic - you fools.

Oh wait a minute, wrong thread sorry.

Lovely chart though.

[Snowplough33]

Lovely chart though.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Lovely chart though.

Like this one too.................. ?????

Edited February 1, 2010 by scottish skier

[Methuselah]

Lovely chart though.

Like this one too.................. ?????

And, Spurs will win the Premier League!!

[Snowplough33]

Like this one too.................. ?????

Stop that, its bad. Like waving a bottle of whisky in front of an alky who's on the wagon.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Snooz]

I just came on to check the progress and thought I'd check the Scottish Thread first.. but I think I've got the wrong one!

[Mondy]

Gimme some "Bombogenesis" from the Atlantic anyday over this dull, dank, doing nothing cold spell. You either snow or you clear your skies and be blue

[Methuselah]

Stop that, its bad. Like waving a bottle of whisky in front of an alky who's on the wagon.

You have to remember this how I feel every time I see your picnic bench.........speaking of which, BBQ purchases have been placed on hold till further updates

And, Spurs will win the Premier League!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

You have to remember this how I feel every time I see your picnic bench.........speaking of which, BBQ purchases have been placed on hold till further updates

[Snooz]

OK just kidding you lot.. it was those FI charts that made me think twice haha!

serious question is all that precip over Scotland Rain/Sleet, not normally in the habit of making predictions outisde of family or a 6-12 hour timeframe, but a friend asked me earlier if it would snow tonight and I said no! and then promptly scared myself as I looked at the radar.

'nother question, "IF" those easterly charts came off would that mean it would be a lot drier here or would snow be just as much in the offing as at any other time, and/or would it simplay make it more marginal dependant on micro-climate type things (like location, location, location!)

haven't been in the MO thread yet.. should I or not?

SS you're teasing again! naughty step for you soon

[Snowplough33]

Permission to drool a little bit??

OK just kidding you lot.. it was those FI charts that made me think twice haha!

serious question is all that precip over Scotland Rain/Sleet, not normally in the habit of making predictions outisde of family or a 6-12 hour timeframe, but a friend asked me earlier if it would snow tonight and I said no! and then promptly scared myself as I looked at the radar.

'nother question, "IF" those easterly charts came off would that mean it would be a lot drier here or would snow be just as much in the offing as at any other time, and/or would it simplay make it more marginal dependant on micro-climate type things (like location, location, location!)

haven't been in the MO thread yet.. should I or not?

SS you're teasing again! naughty step for you soon

I am no expert and unfortunatley there is almost no chance such a senario will come off............but if it did with LP to the south (unstable air) and rediculously cold uppers blowing full length of North Sea, then I am sure that set up would bring major snow problems probably everywhere.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Permission to drool a little bit??

I am no expert and unfortunatley there is almost no chance such a senario will come off............but if it did with LP to the south (unstable air) and rediculously cold uppers blowing full length of North Sea, then I am sure that set up would bring major snow problems probably everywhere.

Permission granted.

Would certainly be snow chains at the ready.

Seems the current prep moving in from the NW is moving very fast but is mainly light. Snowing only above 300 m in these parts. Sat http://www.sat24.com/gb shows the return to northerlys storming in behind. Might mean more significant showers for the north again overnight and into tomorrow.

Edited February 1, 2010 by scottish skier

[Methuselah]

I live in hope!

[Snooz]

many thanks, I better hope the northerly is a little slow in reaching us then [tonite] as the period covered when my friend doesn't want snow is up until 9am tomorrow!

it will be exciting watching the next round of the beasterly's march.. although I just noticed Ian Fergusson has tried to inject a note of caution which appears to answer the bigger scale question, following on from the earlier stuff I posted here from him: but my bold this time

An equally consistent - and crucial - component of the latest briefings has been the almost universally low signal for significant PPN into the same period; thus the emphasis on a colder spell does not necessarily equate to an especially snowy one..... thus a provisional note of caution worth injecting, in case of myopia developing about the 'white stuff'.

fun fun fun!!

Edited February 1, 2010 by Snooz

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

many thanks, I better hope the northerly is a little slow in reaching us then [tonite] as the period covered when my friend doesn't want snow is up until 9am tomorrow!

it will be exciting watching the next round of the beasterly's march.. althou I just noticed Ian Fergusson has tried to inject a note of caution which appears to answer the bigger scale question, following on from the earlier stuff I posted here from him: [1]but my bold this time[/1]

I'd inject my own words of caution maybe... As these summaries are often England centred, not much snow for the south may not mean the same for up North. Guess it's wait and see as usual. First we need the cold, then look for the prep.

Main thing would be that any snow falling would hang around.

[Snooz]

I'd inject my own words of caution maybe... As these summaries are often England centred, not much snow for the south may not mean the same for up North. Guess it's wait and see as usual. First we need the cold, then look for the prep.

Main thing would be that any snow falling would hang around.

Agreed and thanks for your views too, they didn't go unnoticed .. I wasn't meaning to overrrule your note when I posted that one, and I agree it will likely be different further down south - just trying to gain an overall picture so I can TRY to sift the truth in the MO thread in the days to come :pardon:and I've just finshed work so am trying to catch up with all the days events

[rant]that's what really tires me about the MOD thread, reading the repetition - if I have to read the flipping Met Office outlook one more time in there I think I'll scream! is there not a weather forecast discussion thread or am I supposed to think the outlook is a model now?[/rant over]

[Snooz]

LOL.. I can't do it - so much for T96 and realism when I'm hitting T168+ charts all over the place, [don't mind in here for a muse] but but but the who's right/wrong model/person is a bit wearing... & we've not even hit the pub run yet, so I think I'll just check back tomorrow

off to draw instead it's infinitely more calming

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Agreed and thanks for your views too, they didn't go unnoticed .. I wasn't meaning to overrrule your note when I posted that one, and I agree it will likely be different further down south - just trying to gain an overall picture so I can TRY to sift the truth in the MO thread in the days to come :pardon:and I've just finshed work so am trying to catch up with all the days events

[rant]that's what really tires me about the MOD thread, reading the repetition - if I have to read the flipping Met Office outlook one more time in there I think I'll scream! is there not a weather forecast discussion thread or am I supposed to think the outlook is a model now?[/rant over]

Didn't notice any overuling. We're all nice and polite in here.

My memories of easterlies is that they can dump all down the coast, but not much inland sometimes, so that could mean most of the country is dry. I remember the winter of 95/96 when I was a student in St. Andrews; think it was an easterly... dumped a lot of snow there, foot or more. We were all under the impression that the UK was engulfed in armageddon.

However, when heading home to visit the folks and found it was all gone by Glenrothes. Was surreal.

I'm sure those with more knowledge could explain a little more about ideal conditions for convective showers. My understanding is cold dry (continental) air meets warm north sea and hey presto. If SSTs are very low, then less chance and less penetration??

[blitzen]

Must admit that I feel a tad more positive about the future cold spell coming off after today's output. However, the possibility of it being a dry run just fills me with dread! All the pain and no gain so to speak. Like everyone else I would love a sting in the tail to this winter. As I have said before, the east central area really hasn't done so well with regards to snowfall and the announcement that it has been Scotland's coldest winter since records began feels weird somehow to me. Of course you guys up north and down the borders have experienced something totally different. I don't think that there is any denying that this winter has certainly been different though, which is probably why I think that it isn't quite over yet. Going to have a peep at the 18zs but not past 120! I am sure LS will report back to us tho'.

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM=stunning! Lack of significant precipitation is probably more alluding to lack of easier to pick up frontal precipitation, because if the ECM verified (or something along those lines which looks plausible given the background signals etc) there would be plenty of snow - guaranteed! You don't get a dry easterly with uppers of -10 / -12 and pressure at 1014. Obviously we must remain sceptical and cautious in light of the last let-down, and because the cold air takes about 72 hours after the continental flow takes charge to make it across Scotland, but to suggest that this option is off the table is ludicrous. The ECM was suggesting this at 96 hours last night, and both of their outputs today have been suggestive of an easterly, while the UKMO is looking a tad less opposed to the easterly also. As TEITS says it will either be 14C by the 9th or -2C - either would do me at the moment, though the latter has to be prefered!

Still awaiting the Wednesday night event coming into NMM timeframe, though the dewpoints look conduicive to snowfall widely across Scotland. A slight upgrade i.e. a delay of the PPN by about 12 hours and a prolonging of the northerly would give a good chance of an all snow event widely across the central belt and further north. 5 inches or so possible by morning if things go to plan, maybe just a transient snowcover on Wednesday night for some, and worse case being another 3rd February (charts look almost exactly the same, though the dewpoints look a bit lower as the PPN hits, which has to be a good thing). Surprised also that there are no met office advisories, but then again, given how inept they are at warning Scottish snow events, it is perhaps a good omen to avoid the curse of the met office warning!

LS

[Snowlover2]

Thank you LS. Fingers crossed for some more fun to see us out of winter.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Didn't notice any overuling. We're all nice and polite in here.

My memories of easterlies is that they can dump all down the coast, but not much inland sometimes, so that could mean most of the country is dry. I remember the winter of 95/96 when I was a student in St. Andrews; think it was an easterly... dumped a lot of snow there, foot or more. We were all under the impression that the UK was engulfed in armageddon.

However, when heading home to visit the folks and found it was all gone by Glenrothes. Was surreal.

I'm sure those with more knowledge could explain a little more about ideal conditions for convective showers. My understanding is cold dry (continental) air meets warm north sea and hey presto. If SSTs are very low, then less chance and less penetration??

Lol, must've had a northerly/northeasterly tilt to it if Glenrothes missed out - I think 2004 had something similar to that though, with the east neuk just nicking all the snow! As long as SSTs are above freezing, the only major difference I would think is less modification. If it is freezing though, that's when the convection stops e.g. Lake Erie area, where they get 3 foot of snow from northwesterlies purely off the lake before the lake freezes and the temperatures plunge, but by the time that would happen to the North Sea I doubt we could cope with anymore snow!!!The air mass really matters more IMO, with the -8 rule (allow for perhaps -7/-6 in February with cooler SSTs) being the key thing to watch for, though in a northeasterly or easterly with a northerly source with cold air entrenched perhaps -5/-4 is cold enough.

edit: slightly earlier PPN on the 18Z giving an all snow event for most of Scotland http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100201/18/51/prectypeuktopo.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100201/18/54/prectypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100201/18/57/ukprec.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100201/18/57/ukmintemp.png Still 0C behind the band of snow!

Marvellous!

LS

Edited February 1, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm