Model Output Discussion

[summer blizzard]

Having looked at the model guidence and ensembles, despite the transiant snow events the weather for the next ten days realistically, is average to below average, what interests me at the momwent is the massive spread between the 11th and 15th which i will be keeping an eye on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[NorthantsSnow]

These snow showers tonight are making much better progress inland than the GFS suggested. Heck, we even have a very light dusting here in the East Midlands from a flurry around midnight.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100131/18/06/prectypeuktopo.png

[kumquat]

lol still not much confidence in the Runge-Kutta time-step.....it can go backwards as well, too!

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Short lived milder snap?

Not good for those who wrote the whole of february off thats for sure

[Iceberg]

ECM 168 certaintyly doesn't write off the cold snap and the easterly......

I always find that after a big model change you need to wait 24/36 hrs for the models to then settle back down again.

[Eugene]

Yes and ECM 00Z shows IB was way too premature in calling temps of 16C/17C for next weekend, interestingly some easterly runs showing up on the GFS 00Z ensembles for this time next week including the control

UKMO 00Z T+144 hrs builds pressure on the near continent too.

[yamkin]

ECM 12Z upgrade

[NorthernRab]

What a change in the models this morning, GFS ensembles look a lot more favourable in terms of cold weather and the ECM suggests the block will win out against the Atlantic. Very much all to play for.

[KTtom]

Amazing, just when we get used to the fact its going to be mild for the foreseeable, along comes the ECM!

UKMO not bad at +144 also, but its the ECM which, after +144 wants to revert back to square 1........here we go again.....

[mcweather]

This gets more laughable by the hour now ECM reverts to the original gfs output from last week.

[cold snap]

Well intresting models this morning to say the least.

The block to the East is not going away,and has been there for weeks,and might be there for a another 4 weeks,it just cant be ignored.

The frustation is we have not been able to tap in to it.

ECM GFS both this morning want another stab at it.God loves a tryer.They are both working so hard to bring it back in.

But once again it wont be this week,they need time to figure it out,Lets see what happen this time

Edited February 1, 2010 by cold snap

[Methuselah]

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