Model Output Discussion

[karyo]

It is hard to believe what a turnaround we have witnessed, in the models, in the last 24-36 hours! From alpine skiing in the southeast (to use the term of Steve Mur's excited post a few days ago) to ideal weather for the daffodills to flower!

The fact that all this is expected to happen under a negative NAO/AO makes it even harder to swallow!

Karyo

[winterof79]

12c in the SW by day 8c by night.

It doesn't get much worse. I see nobody is even posting on TWO this evening - cold weather fans have gone!

Trolling at its best.GFS showing mild by next weekend.A snow event possible wed/thurs.You of all people have experienced a harsh and snowy winter but still come on to TWO and here to goad cold weather lovers.The sooner the mods sort it out the better this place will be.Hiding behind a PC to entice anger,shame on you.I risk a ban but would rather not participate posts like yours in the last 24 hrs are permitted.

[derrylynne]

Yes this summed up our thoughts regarding the block, theres no halfway house in this set up, mild sw'erlies or cold easterlies! The only straw we can clutch is that its not a return to zonal with positive NAO and AO, whilst the background teleconnections remain favourable at least there might be some route back to cold but don't ask me when!

It were only a few days ago that a classic 1947 synoptic were being shown. My feeling is this could swing back just as quick. The way the charts have been acting of late just about anything is possible. I would not be surprised to see an about turn within the next two days...

[MR EXTREMES]

18.3c record under threat on the ECM?

now thats just silly talk.

all the models agree on mild the only thing that i can say is we had a great winter.

also need to add the dramatic way the models have change just a little reminder that by this time next week there always the possibilty of a return of cold.

its all very sudden thats alll im saying but it just goes to show how dramatic the weather can be.

there have also been some silly posts in here but cooling climate we where all wrong,

oh yeah ive not seem BFTP around i just wondered what his thoughts are from here.

edit: i only say this because i like to hear the thoughts of someone who has good idears maybe there not always right but they contribute in a big way thats what makes this thread the best.

Edited January 31, 2010 by badboy657

[Weather-history]

18.3c record under threat on the ECM?

19.7C is the record for February.

Edited January 31, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Bolton67]

possibilities of 16/17C in SE England next weekend.

16 or 17c in febuary??

I'll take that now thanks...

we dont see them kind of temps in winter...17c in FEB!!!!!

next we will be told it will be 35c -39c in summer

Edited January 31, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[nick sussex]

i have seen stranger things mate it nearly does it at t96 a slight change and we would be looking at complet

ely the opposite at what we are

Well unfortunately too much energy keeps spilling out of the eastern USA which basically feeds the trough to the west, as you can see from the ECM the trough just sits there. It's a frustrating pattern as the NAO and AO are negative but you need some luck where the blocks set up.

If the trough weakens then theres a chance some disruption might occur and if pressure remains high to the ne then we could see a colder pattern developing but looking at all the output it looks like some milder air will eventually come in, it's something that you guys in the UK haven't really seen since earlier in December so it had to happen at some point, it's hard to imagine but yes those mild mush sw'erlies still exist.

Anyway we're only just into February so still plenty of time for more colder weather, of course people are disappointed with the recent turnaround but as we've seen models can change very quickly and that works both ways.

[Jason T]

It is amazing how models can change these are all at 12+72.

[SP1986]

To be honest the latest NAO forecast are a little less negative with the outcome, nearer neutral which is actually I suppose is quite reflected within the current output.

Don't forget though the NAO are as fallible as the outputs themselves - the NAO usually follows the model runs I find.

[MR EXTREMES]

That can't really happen; we have lost the blocking signal/potential over Svalbard and S Scandi, the Atlantic trough as nowhere to go other than meander around to the West of the UK, this is the price you have to pay for failing to get the aligned Northern block. The Low pressure can neither go South or retreat, we are just left with minor variables determining whether it will be above average or very mild and it's a very difficult set up to shift.

its not over its only the start of feb ian i just cant see why teleconnections cant shift the patterns again.

im sorry but the alantic was on a mission in late november but it soon shifted cold so it might not happen in a couple of days but it could very much happen in 7 to 10 days europe will still be very cold because the blocking to our east does not totally vanish and blocking is on the cards.

i still think theres 1 easterly left with snowfall sometime maybe its hopecasting maybe its just common sense.

[igloo]

19.6C is the record for February.

very unlikely we will see temps near that but then again this winter so far has bean a record breaker

[KTtom]

It is a constasnt learning experience for us all, the METO have performed poorly. I have performed poorly. And so the learning goes on. Only the other day I was confident of an easterly, the ever sceptical Nick F and Retron were even sticking their necks out to some degree, another experienced and respected poster PMd me to say 'if he were a betting man he would put money on an easterly'.

Yet in December, an avid follower of the m/era theory PMd me to doubt the evolution to colder conditions. He was wrong then, as those mentioned above were wrong recently. That's part of the reason why it fascinates us, you just have to keep coming back for more.

Bit like getting plastered down the pub on Saturday, waking up on sunday and saying 'I am never doing that again, 5 days later....

What the heck this has to do with model output i'll never know

[MR EXTREMES]

Well unfortunately too much energy keeps spilling out of the eastern USA which basically feeds the trough to the west, as you can see from the ECM the trough just sits there. It's a frustrating pattern as the NAO and AO are negative but you need some luck where the blocks set up.

If the trough weakens then theres a chance some disruption might occur and if pressure remains high to the ne then we could see a colder pattern developing but looking at all the output it looks like some milder air will eventually come in, it's something that you guys in the UK haven't really seen since earlier in December so it had to happen at some point, it's hard to imagine but yes those mild mush sw'erlies still exist.

Anyway we're only just into February so still plenty of time for more colder weather, of course people are disappointed with the recent turnaround but as we've seen models can change very quickly and that works both ways.

thank you this is what i call a good post.

[huntso]

I can remember being on holiday mid 1990's in Devon during February half term week and it was so warm that there were people sitting on the beach at Wembury Bay. We were walking about in tee shirts and sat outside one place eating ice creams, started on the Tuesday after dense fog on the Monday

Not impossible and after all this cold it would be great to have another week like that to take the chill from my old bones

[492]

Latest UKMO T+72 fax shows the alantic lows slightly futher south than the previous run and the ridge extending down to Iceland is stronger.

[Thundery wintry showers]

When I post about sunshine amounts, I'm not trying to belittle the views of those who want a very warm spell regardless of sunshine amounts- that's a matter of personal preference/opinion which is fine. The issue is with the automatic association of warmth with sunshine.

Most notable warm spells at this time of year don't feature people out in T-shirts on the beach because it tends to be too dull, drizzly and windy. There are occasions when warmth is accompanied by bright sunshine at this time of year- I remember wandering about in sunshine and 16C during the beginning of the long anticyclonic spell in February 2008, and there was a well-remembered example around 13 February 1998 that affected most of England and Wales, but they are few and far between.

It isn't really until high summer (July/August) when we get a definite positive relationship between temperatures and sunshine/lack of rainfall, and even then it isn't a hard and fast rule, just a strong correlation that holds true as a rule of thumb more often than not.

I can guarantee that if the ECMWF came off, while there might be a few sunny breaks for a select few, most places would be dull with drizzle, and possibly some very heavy rain for the Scottish Highlands.

[Richard Lake]

...we are just left with minor variables determining whether it will be above average or very mild and it's a very difficult set up to shift.

Today is sunday... nothing past sunday has been setup yet and is subject to change.

[aspire27]

16 or 17c in febuary??

I'll take that now thanks...

we dont see them kind of temps in winter...17c in FEB!!!!!

next we will be told it will be 35c -39c in summer

Read all your posts this evening and not one has contributed to this MODEL OUTPUT THREAD. For a newbie this is really anoying. Im not the first person to

comment on your posts today.

Please mods.

[ribster]

It ain't happened yet - let's get passed wednesday 1st

Indeed, countryfile went for temps recovering to nearer normal, but he doubted it was last for very long....

[igloo]

certanily would help my arthritis those type of temps but i would not like to be by the beach eating ice creams this time round as the models suggest very wet and gale force winds .better being cold and dry than wet and windy in my opinion

[Thundery wintry showers]

That can't really happen; we have lost the blocking signal/potential over Svalbard and S Scandi, the Atlantic trough as nowhere to go other than meander around to the West of the UK, this is the price you have to pay for failing to get the aligned Northern block. The Low pressure can neither go South or retreat, we are just left with minor variables determining whether it will be above average or very mild and it's a very difficult set up to shift.

Also picking up on that last bit, I agree with much of what you say, but a January 1969 style blocking setup is much easier to shift than a persistent Bartlett/Euro High with raging south-westerlies. All it requires is a shift in the positioning of the blocks. In the case of January 1969 the blocking pattern shifted into February resulting in a very cold month.

[Frosty.]

Latest UKMO T+72 fax shows the alantic lows slightly futher south than the previous run and the ridge extending down to Iceland is stronger.

First signs that the ukmo was being too progressive, hopefully we can hang on to the cold air longer.

[PB22]

The overall pattern for the next week or so is gradually being sorted out. The first half of the week sees a battle between the cold and mild, with the south seeing the mildest of the conditions and Scotland seeing the coldest:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack1.html

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.html

Most of us will see another frost on Tuesday night:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack1a.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn6617.html

Then the Atlantic push gets going from Thursday onwards. GFS has one of its dartboard lows which is probably overdone, but the Euro's are consistent in bringing in a long fetch of southwesterlies by T+144:

GFS: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

UKMO: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

ECM: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1441.html

A growing signal then for many areas to reach double figures next weekend:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn17417.html

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1681.html

If that were to come off then it would feel very much different to the last few months and we'd probably be outside in t-shirts!

Beyond this is open to question, but the milder and unsettled theme looks to be favoured at this moment in time.

[Ben_Cambs]

The only thing good I can see is later on in the ECM run the Euro High retreats much further south towards the end of the run?

Edited January 31, 2010 by Snowman0697

[MP-R]

I can guarantee that if the ECMWF came off, while there might be a few sunny breaks for a select few, most places would be dull with drizzle, and possibly some very heavy rain for the Scottish Highlands.

I love your posts! So realistic, true and sensible. Would I be right in thinking if the model runs we have seen today came off, post mid-week that is, weather like that of early Feb 04 would be the case. Rather showery and breezy but not soaking and much milder than the northerly we had had the week before.