Model Output Discussion

[Tom D]

I've just come back to laugh and make fun of the GFS.

The undercutting is back at t+96 with the block farther east. Can it actually be onto something here or just clutching at straws itself?!

Well despite the initial undercutting, it then looks mild again.

Edited January 31, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Snowstorm1]

You have to laugh JUST when you think its over GFS produces a continental feed at T99 onwards

[andymusic]

Easterly coming back on with the GFS

[Rich44]

and so the roller coaster starts again

[Cheese Rice]

As expected the block looks like winning.

[Matty M]

It just goes to show, you cant be certain on this things, a small change in energy can have big changes.

No point looking beyond the 96hr marker here.

But if we do look at that mother of a storm attempting to push into the block.

Very interesting 18z.

[nick sussex]

Given the GFS of recent days is anyone taking any notice of it? The problem remains the trough in the Atlantic, this just gets topped up by a stream of shortwaves coming out of the USA,the trough cant disrupt or weaken whilst this is the case.

[Jason T]

Amazing is that a change we see already and alot earlier than stated tomorrows will be interesting.please correct me if im wrong.

[John London]

A lot more energy undercutting the block to the east on this run giving the high to

the east a lot more support and better orientation.

I have been following your forecasts for the last 13 days and just like the poor souls in the Light Brigade I'm still willing to ride with you into the valley of death.

8th February you said for the beast, and I'm still with you right to the end.

[kent]

Easterly coming back on with the GFS

my thoughts too, I,m not convinced the easterly wont materialise I believe it will. But remember. THE ODE TO THE WEATHERMAN. And in my dying embers, These are my main regrets. When i,m right no one remembers. And when i,m wrong no one forgets. lol.

[cooling climate]

There is certainly enough evidence to suggest that the easterly is still an option at least for

this time next week onwards. I personally think this is more than likely and that the models will

(are) start to backtrack.

On this run at t150 you can see how much everything is further west,not worth looking any

further than that and even that is probably way to far at the moment.

Thanks John won't be long to find out if that was a wise decision or not.

I am still as confident as ever.

Edited January 31, 2010 by cooling climate

[shiver]

Given the GFS of recent days is anyone taking any notice of it? The problem remains the trough in the Atlantic, this just gets topped up by a stream of shortwaves coming out of the USA,the trough cant disrupt or weaken whilst this is the case.

have you seen gem 12z nick fi is t72

[Cloud 10]

I have been following your forecasts for the last 13 days and just like the poor souls in the Light Brigade I'm still willing to ride with you into the valley of death.

8th February you said for the beast, and I'm still with you right to the end.

Thats the spirit i like to see!

ecm96>> gfs18z96>>

Could this be the start of a backtrack on the backtrack?

The atlantic is really struggling against the block to the NE.

Not much t-shirt weather on this run.

Edited January 31, 2010 by Cloud 10

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Like I say, patiently awaiting the 12z runs on Monday. Look beyond t96 with suspicion. Mild scenario is NOT set in stone, the talk of waiting to get new pattern out of the way...what pattern? We aren't in it yet...but also folks looking for beast from east...no. Look N and NW.

BFTP

[MR EXTREMES]

As expected the block looks like winning.

please be carefull keep an open mind its 1 run in fi.

but this must be the model that jay earlier was on about on bbc 24 lol.

[igloo]

flooding about sums up this evenings 18z run the lows spinning about like flys in a glass bottle with no way to escape NIGHTMARE

[andymusic]

In the red corner we have the block/cold Mike Tyson

and in the blue corner the atlantic low/mild Joe Bugner

who will win???????????????/

My money's on Mike

Go Mike Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[yamkin]

Given the GFS of recent days is anyone taking any notice of it? The problem remains the trough in the Atlantic, this just gets topped up by a stream of shortwaves coming out of the USA,the trough cant disrupt or weaken whilst this is the case.

Nick, What are your thoughts with the Moscow WMC 12Z 108h & 120h.

[MR EXTREMES]

i think the gfs is a good model and lets face it none of the big 3 have been 100% over the last 7 days.

as i said open mind is the answer milder for the short term thats a cert what happens in fi is always 50/50 and to be honest what this winter has produced id be very suprised if it turns out blowtourch but i would not bin another cold shot because it could happen.

its a good idear to take note of gps comments,

models are confused what to do futher than fi maybe even closer.

Edited January 31, 2010 by shuggee

[andymusic]

GFS FI -

[Peter Henderson]

Like I say, patiently awaiting the 12z runs on Monday. Look beyond t96 with suspicion. Mild scenario is NOT set in stone, the talk of waiting to get new pattern out of the way...what pattern? We aren't in it yet...but also folks looking for beast from east...no. Look N and NW.

BFTP

All the models are now showing milder atlantic air right up until next weekend, though the metoffice are still predicting something colder eventually:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 31 Jan 2010

[Southender]

Well I did say watch the 18z throw a curve ball.. The Euro's will hopefully follow suit over next 24 hrs. It aint over yet folks...

[Tom D]

GFS FI -

It's one of the strangest synoptic set ups I've ever seen and therefore probably complete trash. The trend to cold however, remains, and looks like it will provide a headache for at least another 6 hours.

EDIT: Well actually the trend isn't there, op might be an outlier Anything could happen, quite literally.

Edited January 31, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[MR EXTREMES]

Please refrain from mocking those with disabilities........moderators, YOU have corrected me for much less than this...come on, model discussion, not mocking discussions please.

yes although this was used as a bit of fun it might not be funny to someone who has problems.

we had this the other day which i may add was rather uncalled for.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

GFS FI -

Well I for one have seen enough to make tomorrow mornings model views a bit more exciting. I know the GFS has been all over the place and knowing my luck will probably be different again by then but those NE'lys by a week on wednesday look tasty.