Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

With charts like this at 96 hours.

I still believe there is much chance of something interesting occuring.

Very much agree if some can not at least acknowledge the potential in that chart then I don't

think they are reading the charts properly.

[Bolton67]

ECM +168

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?31-0

Looks like what the UKMO would probably show if it went further... just too much punch from the Atlantic.

That chart would suit me fine !!!

My old bones are now aching for some warm temps and some strong sunlight.

I've been cold since December and now hoping the GFS 12z come off.

[nick sussex]

Simply a shocker.

For the period at +168 the ECM mean for De Bilt could go from -3C which it was showing yesterday to +10C by tomorrow mornings 0Z if the trend remains. A shocking increase of 13C.

Yes this summed up our thoughts regarding the block, theres no halfway house in this set up, mild sw'erlies or cold easterlies! The only straw we can clutch is that its not a return to zonal with positive NAO and AO, whilst the background teleconnections remain favourable at least there might be some route back to cold but don't ask me when!

[SP1986]

Those sort of SW'lies could hold some interest, perhaps Foehn effects in such circumstances.

[Thundery wintry showers]

That chart would suit me fine !!!

My old bones are now aching for some warm temps and some strong sunlight.

I've been cold since December and now hoping the GFS 12z come off.

I don't know if you're just satisfied with 1 out of 2 (which is a legitimate viewpoint) or if you're falling into the trap of associating warmth with sunshine, as many people do when they start looking for Spring. If the SSW flows of either the ECMWF or GFS came off, I think most places would struggle to see any sunlight at all with such a broad tropical maritime flow.

It's not a million miles away from being a mild sunny setup but it would need the HP to be much further west giving an anticyclonic southerly regime and less Atlantic influence.

[Harsh Climate]

I think things will still turn colder mid februrary

Edited January 31, 2010 by Jed Bickerdike

[bluearmy]

as tamara posted, T96 on ecm is promisng - only prolem is the conveyer of gulf shortwaves keeps, as iceberg said yesterday morning, adding fuel to the fire and forces a ridge ahead of the energy which deflects the trough ne - cant see any other result as long as these gulf shortwaves keep on coming.

interesting to see the energy left behind from the scandi trough is still meandering around near svaalbard by T192 - it was this energy in the norwegian area that began the downward trend as it prevented the siberian block effectively ridging sw before the atlantic 'fired up'.

the ecm 00z developed a strong enough west based -NAO to send the jet south at the end of its run and the gulf shortwaves energy with it. not sure the 12z looks to be that promising with, as nick suggested, a mexican stand off emerging between the atlantic and the block to our east. at least we can maybe look forward to no mans land again if the atlantic takes its foot off the pedal. the GEM is still hanging onto a possible southeasterly - fingertip stuff though.

[Optimus Prime]

Those sort of SW'lies could hold some interest, perhaps Foehn effects in such circumstances.

18.3c record under threat on the ECM?

[KTtom]

In some ways I can understand the air of despondency on here, for whereas most "downgrade" scenarios have an obvious route to the downgrade (e.g. shortening of a northerly or easterly from 72 hours to 36 hours because of lack of high pressure over Greenland and/or Scandinavia) or replace a cold snowy scenario with a not-so-cold and/or not-so-snowy one, this one has been "out of the blue" and from one extreme to the other. A couple of days ago only the UKMO model showed any hint of a proper return of the Atlantic.

In this case it hasn't even been at where we would traditionally term "FI" as the key differences manifested themselves at just 3 days out yesterday. A stark warning that we cannot afford to put too much faith in long-range models, and perhaps also a reminder to live in the present moment a bit more- many of us have been getting excited over possible easterlies at >T+168 when in the meantime we have a cold northerly with sunshine and some snow showers for some.

I guess the difference here is that the Met were really sticking their necks out and widely going for the colder outlook, our local guy on BBC said on 2 back to back forecasts that the return to cold and snow looks odds on nextweekend, Ian F last night also said SE winds were the highest probability for days 6-10.

Its rare the Met stick their necks out, and we hammer them for not doing so, but perhaps now we can see why?

...anyway, whats a winter without a major let down

[snowingtequila]

I won't pretend the outlook is pretty bad on every model run. However, no run is that faraway from cold to me. On Tuesday it would not take much for cold to be more presistant once it has pushed down and I wouldn't be surprised if by tuesday we are looking at signs of the next northerly on model runs. Meanwhile I am going an evening walk in the crisp 4 inches of snow I have in this cold spell that I have been told is not a cold spell.

[Jason T]

Well i think at the moment looking past 72h on the models could be the problem. As i agree with some that they can change the following 24. I completely think all models will look different by wednesday 12z onwards.

Edited January 31, 2010 by silver line

[Frosty.]

Some of us regard double figure temperatures in mid-winter against the law.. me included.

Better get used to it then, the models show normal winter service about to be resumed for most of us but not until thursday. The big question then is how long it will last.

[igloo]

ECM +168

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?31-0

Looks like what the UKMO would probably show if it went further... just too much punch from the Atlantic.

i hope this thread doesnt go empty for the next week or so almost certainly we will have to wait till at least mid feb before anything regarding cold will return after viewing the stunning charts we had during midweek its a big disappointment but as always cold charts are always in FL and very rarely happen GP weather forecast is spot on once again .

[Duncan McAlister]

18.3c record under threat on the ECM?

Record for February is 19.7C on the 13th, surprisingly early in the month

http://torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

[andymusic]

I guess the difference here is that the Met were really sticking their necks out and widely going for the colder outlook, our local guy on BBC said on 2 back to back forecasts that the return to cold and snow looks odds on nextweekend, Ian F last night also said SE winds were the highest probability for days 6-10.

Its rare the Met stick their necks out, and we hammer them for not doing so, but perhaps now we can see why?

...anyway, whats a winter without a major let down

It ain't happened yet - let's get passed wednesday 1st

[Optimus Prime]

Its rare the Met stick their necks out, and we hammer them for not doing so, but perhaps now we can see why?

...anyway, whats a winter without a major let down

No they've done it many times recently and failed miserably. Once they use the 12z or 00z (or whatever run they allegedly use) that assumption will change.

[SP1986]

18.3c record under threat on the ECM?

It's possible in such circumstances however I think the SWly coveyer would need to be persistent for a few days for that to happen, usually warm SWly airflows only last 1-2 days at most in winter.

I don't think the ECM will occur with the severity of SW winds shown now, but temperature around or just above the seasonal average are likely first - after that, who knows?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The latest UKMO/ECM do look like less of a "mild zonal" setup and more like a January 1969 type pattern, when we had a lot of blocking but it was in precisely the wrong places to bring cold and/or snowy weather to Britain. In that sort of situation the pattern can flip quite quickly between mild and cold if the blocking highs shift position.

Looking like being mild for Thursday through to next weekend, but for how much longer after that is extremely uncertain.

[Harsh Climate]

18.3c record under threat on the ECM?

lol your way over the top..

for temps like that in februrary we would need air being sucked up all the way from africa, like here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980213.gif

I would say maximums of 12/13 more likley.

[nick sussex]

Those sort of SW'lies could hold some interest, perhaps Foehn effects in such circumstances.

Oh great I'm sure the ski resorts here in the Pyrenees and Alps will be looking forward to that! The only interest I have in foehn effects are in the summer!

I 'm hoping the rain stays away here and the models keep enough of a ridge from the block to keep it dry, anyway given the ECM has switched again in its FI output from this morning with it now keeping the notorious block to the east rather than edging the trough through perhaps it might go the whole way tomorrow and bring back an easterly! that was just a joke!

[andymusic]

Oh great I'm sure the ski resorts here in the Pyrenees and Alps will be looking forward to that! The only interest I have in foehn effects are in the summer!

I 'm hoping the rain stays away here and the models keep enough of a ridge from the block to keep it dry, anyway given the ECM has switched again in its FI output from this morning with it now keeping the notorious block to the east rather than edging the trough through perhaps it might go the whole way tomorrow and bring back an easterly! that was just a joke!

you migh find the joke turning to reality

[Weather-history]

The latest UKMO/ECM do look like less of a "mild zonal" setup and more like a January 1969 type pattern, when we had a lot of blocking but it was in precisely the wrong places to bring cold and/or snowy weather to Britain. In that sort of situation the pattern can flip quite quickly between mild and cold if the blocking highs shift position.

Looking like being mild for Thursday through to next weekend, but for how much longer after that is extremely uncertain.

Yes, it looks like a January 1969 scenario

Edited January 31, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Bolton67]

I don't know if you're just satisfied with 1 out of 2 (which is a legitimate viewpoint) or if you're falling into the trap of associating warmth with sunshine, as many people do when they start looking for Spring. If the SSW flows of either the ECMWF or GFS came off, I think most places would struggle to see any sunlight at all with such a broad tropical maritime flow.

It's not a million miles away from being a mild sunny setup but it would need the HP to be much further west giving an anticyclonic southerly regime and less Atlantic influence.

Good Evening TWS.

yes please i'll take the GFS 12z now.

being a LONG dstant lorry driver i'll take +13c over any day time temps of - 2

try sleeping in a cab when its minus-10

Not very nice mate..

[Harsh Climate]

People need to calm down a little , come around the 9/10th februrary the jetstream will weaken (according to telleconections) and I then I would expect some sort of easterly/north easterly feed to develope, mid februrary...

Really is funny how people are estatic one day, then miserable the next

This is why its best to take a step back and look at the overall trend and all the data available to us, the longerterm outlook for mid februrary onwards is still very promising.

I guarantee when great charts start to appear again in a few days time, everyone will jump straight back on the band wagon!!

[shiver]

Oh great I'm sure the ski resorts here in the Pyrenees and Alps will be looking forward to that! The only interest I have in foehn effects are in the summer!

I 'm hoping the rain stays away here and the models keep enough of a ridge from the block to keep it dry, anyway given the ECM has switched again in its FI output from this morning with it now keeping the notorious block to the east rather than edging the trough through perhaps it might go the whole way tomorrow and bring back an easterly! that was just a joke!

i have seen stranger things mate it nearly does it at t96 a slight change and we would be looking at complet

ely the opposite at what we are