Model Output Discussion

[Harsh Climate]

No that high ridge has been there for a while. After that the NE low pushes cold air in so we get a battleground over us. Lord almighty look back at the previous runs.

Such rapid changes so early in the run should surely be a good thing! As the rest of the run will probably be different due to the knock on affect

[J10]

No that high ridge has been there for a while. After that the NE low pushes cold air in so we get a battleground over us. Lord almighty look back at the previous runs.

Indeed .

The GFS looks very progressive at T+120 and is much milder than the 06Hz run (both in terms of the upper temps and the surface temps). Winds would also be from the SW rather than the SE, so not much snow at this stage.

[igloo]

batting down the hatches from midweek by the looks of the 12z run major storm rolling in at +120 something we havent being used to for the past few months mild wet and very windy sums it up

[Harsh Climate]

T96 is about as far as we can realistically look and up to that point not bad. What ever the 12z run shows i think that the low in the atlantic at T96 will track south east, the Greenland high will strengthen and the cold pool up north will flood south leaving us in a North/North Easterly veering Easterly by the weekend. The jet stream also backs this up. Thats my take on it as things stand looking only up to T96.

Yes, the only reason were probably not guna get a more easterly feed late next week is due to the atlantic cranking up... I hate to keep going on about it but with the nao n ao going negative from the 7/8th this has to be due to pressure building upstream, therefore with a weakened atlantic there shouldnt be anything to stop the cold coming back in from the east

[Eugene]

Deckchairs flying around friday night, at least it will feel cold in those severe gale force winds

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

[NorthantsSnow]

GFS finally coming into line with the Euros, dragged kicking and screaming of course. This means the window for snow next week has considerably reduced with a much faster breakdown to mobile Atlantic weather. Horrible run for cold prospects developing here I feel.

[Cheese Rice]

Good grief.. The GFS 12z has us in milder SW's in just over 24 hous

It was showing SE or Easterlies out to T168 a day ago, this is some back track,

of monumental proportions.

Hardly what I would call milder SW's, the wind may be coming from the SW but any milder air doesn't affect us, and this is quickly eroded away by the -5 air flooding back down from the north.

Anyway a goof run for snow in the reliable time frame, expect Fri/Sat low to be downgraded and the milder air wrapped around to be downgraded considerably. The outlook ATM looks cool and showery with temps average or just below for much of the country. With still a risk of snow at times.

Edited January 31, 2010 by 10123

[Snowyowl9]

GFS 12z looks more the 0z run.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

This looks severe for wind,severe S-ly gales.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

[Tom D]

Deckchairs flying around friday night, at least it will feel cold in those severe gale force winds

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

The GFS has gone from one extreme to another - 24 hours ago at the same stage as that winter storm moves in it showed an easterly. I doubt there's much chance of it going back now.

It looks a bit too strong and will probably end up more like the UKMO/ECM type at that stage.

[PubliusEnigma]

T96 is about as far as we can realistically look and up to that point not bad. What ever the 12z run shows i think that the low in the atlantic at T96 will track south east, the Greenland high will strengthen and the cold pool up north will flood south leaving us in a North/North Easterly veering Easterly by the weekend. The jet stream also backs this up. Thats my take on it as things stand looking only up to T96.

I think FI is at T36 with the only thing certain the milder westerly flow for Tuesday, after that the northerly touted is very much open to considerable scepticism, I would take the Wed - thur on this output with a large pinch of salt. I cant see it turning cold enough for snow after its turned milder on tuesday..

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

From villain to peace maker?

UKMO at t144 shows hints perhaps of the very start of renewed blocking as the troughing to the atlantic pulls back westwards

Those hints of renewed easterlies that the METO analysis pointed to for the 10 day period may just start to develop from here?

Edited January 31, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[igloo]

GFS finally coming into line with the Euros, dragged kicking and screaming of course. This means the window for snow next week has considerably reduced with a much faster breakdown to mobile Atlantic weather. Horrible run for cold prospects developing here I feel.

looking more and more like the charts we had in november i just hope this time there isnt any more flooding with blocking to our north and east there doesnt seem to be anywhere these lows can go and may stall over us horrific setup

[PubliusEnigma]

GFS 12z looks more the 0z run.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

This looks severe for wind,severe S-ly gales.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

With a mini vortex and dumbel LP systems setting up to the west of Ireland, and weak HP over Greenland,

I can see the potential for some potent zonality in the coming weeks with LP tracking in very close to western

britain, with the potential for frequent gales as is now being shown for this weekend. it should certainly blow

the cobwebs away ! Way out beyond T+372 I can see HP reasserting over GReenland with Northelies or even NE'lys

starting to become prevelant around the 18 - 20 Feb mark !

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am coming around to the view that the easterly is almost certain not to come off and that we have a week or so of mild zonality coming up, driven by tropical maritime south-westerly air.

Strong support for a build of pressure towards Greenland which might support a slower version of the late December 2009 evolution, with chances of cold air returning from the north-east around the 10th-15th as a result.

[PubliusEnigma]

looking more and more like the charts we had in november i just hope this time there isnt any more flooding with blocking to our north and east there doesnt seem to be anywhere these lows can go and may stall over us horrific setup

We could very well see some serious flooding in cumbria, Ireland and SW & W Scotland at this rate, with gales almost

anywhere.

[PubliusEnigma]

I am coming around to the view that the easterly is almost certain not to come off and that we have a week or so of mild zonality coming up, driven by tropical maritime south-westerly air.

Strong support for a build of pressure towards Greenland which might support a slower version of the late December 2009 evolution, with chances of cold air returning from the north-east around the 10th-15th as a result.

Great minds escentially the same post, written at the same time as the one above and at the same time too.

[yamkin]

From villain to peace maker?

UKMO at t144 shows hints perhaps of the very start of renewed blocking as the troughing to the atlantic pulls back westwards

Those hints of renewed easterlies that the METO analysis pointed to for the 10 day period may just start to develop from here?

Remarkable difference between UKMO 12Z 144h & GFS 12Z 144h. As you pointed out, 'UKMO at t144 shows hints perhaps of the very start of renewed blocking'

[Snowaddict]

Looking at the North Hem view of the latest UKMO 12Z Operational @ T+144, it might appear ghastly at first, but I don't think it's that bad..

We could conceivably get an Easterly evolution down the line from that setup..

Mild at first, with a displaced ridge perhaps moving Northwards over time & eventual WAA to High Latitudes, resulting from deep cyclonic activity in the Mid Atlantic..

Something to watch I think.. Potential Easterly flow towards the 10th of February?

Certainly becoming very unsettled during the coming week.

SA

[cooling climate]

The UKMO chart at t144 seems to side with Larry Cosgrove's thoughts (American met) of perhaps a vortex

setting up around the Nova Scotia area. Long way off but if so then it would be very benifical for us and

could very well mean the easterly is delayed but not denied.

Tons of potential in that chart.

Edited January 31, 2010 by cooling climate

[PubliusEnigma]

Hardly what I would call milder SW's, the wind may be coming from the SW but any milder air doesn't affect us, and this is quickly eroded away by the -5 air flooding back down from the north.

Anyway a goof run for snow in the reliable time frame, expect Fri/Sat low to be downgraded and the milder air wrapped around to be downgraded considerably. The outlook ATM looks cool and showery with temps average or just below for much of the country. With still a risk of snow at times.

Gonna be pretty warm snow ! Almost 70oF, a couple of hundred miles to the south !!

Unbeleivable. !

Edited January 31, 2010 by PubliusEnigma

[Eugene]

It's worth saying the very mild(temps over 10C) and wet weather is a week away, alot can change in a week, i'm sure the actual outcome will look different come next sunday, i`ll be here to see if i was right or not

[snowdrifter]

GFS 12z looks more the 0z run.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn782.png

This looks severe for wind,severe S-ly gales.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

That 132 chart looks like a typical GFS superstorm. Seen these before, though maybe further out in FI. I mean, 965mb next Saturday?? We know it won't happen, and after the massive turnaround from the GFS (which many feared would happen anyway) it feels like anything's possible, though unless UKMO/ECM show major differences in the coming days there doesn't seem to be lots out there for snow/cold lovers to look fwd to in the short term at least.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Looking at the North Hem view of the latest UKMO 12Z Operational @ T+144, it might appear ghastly at first, but I don't think it's that bad..

We could conceivably get an Easterly evolution down the line from that setup..

Mild at first, with a displaced ridge perhaps moving Northwards over time & eventual WAA to High Latitudes, resulting from deep cyclonic activity in the Mid Atlantic..

Something to watch I think.. Potential Easterly flow towards the 10th of February?

Certainly becoming very unsettled during the coming week.

SA

Exactly my thoughts!

Some south westerly muck to have to endure and then perhaps more light at the end of a not too long tunnel

Yamkin - yes, GFS has belatedly picked up a signal and has now gone gung ho with the atlantic lows.

On that point I see lots of people are slavishly taking the model at face value. From epic snow burying snowstorms, now to windstorms

Edited January 31, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[PubliusEnigma]

Remarkable difference between UKMO 12Z 144h & GFS 12Z 144h. As you pointed out, 'UKMO at t144 shows hints perhaps of the very start of renewed blocking'

You are looking at the winds the wrong way round, on a HP they circulate clockwise so those are SW'lys over the

UK not NE'lys.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Gonna be pretty warm snow ! Almost 70oF, a couple of hundred miles to the south !!

Unbeleivable. !

Oh well, 1C in Aviemore, time for a train trip up to Inverness me thinks!!

Anyway, the UKMO has potential, but surely any easterly would be heavily modified by that time - I'm looking for pressure building from Greenland to be honest, that seems the most likely way of any cold spell coming about in the next 14 days.