Model Output Discussion

[mcweather]

If all the charts have been wrong for the last however many runs regarding cold, then they are just as likely to be wrong this time regarding mild. Nothing itsset in stone and I think there are a few more suprises along the way, model watching wise this week.

[Eugene]

I do find it amusing that people are so busy looking at the models for a cold spell in 5 days time that they don't realise we are in a cold spell. The models suggest the easterly idea was not quite right, it never made sense to me anyway. I think another cold spell is more likely from the north. However, I am looking outside at 4 inches of snow and wondering if people expect too much if this cold spell we are under gets no discussion and its potential breakdown does not get a discussion this week which is more exciting that something so far away.

Yes a spot on post, the month is currently 3C below average and likely to be the coldest January since 1987 and all we see are moaners out in force, like i said they`ll never be happy with the weather, best we enjoy the cold and ignore the moaners.

Another cold week ahead according to GFS 06Z as ever any mild is outside the reliable timeframe like it has all winter long, why do people suddenly believe one mornings runs, you are suppose to look over the models over days even a week not just come to conclusions based on one days runs.

According to the public and tv announcers we have had a freezing winter and they are right.

[Snowyowl9]

One reason why I said make the most of the next 2 days,wet and windy tuesday.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1a.gif

[nick sussex]

Although the GFS 06hrs run looks slightly better than the earlier 00hrs I have little confidence in anything it shows at the moment given its recent form. The UKMO still looks very poor in comparison and until that backtracks then we should just remain cautious about any potential snow for this week.

We've been waiting for it to backtrack for days and still it refuses to so it may well be right, lets hope not though!

[andymusic]

One reason why I said make the most of the next 2 days,wet and windy tuesday.

http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack1a.gif

snowy and cold tuesday night into wednesday - gfs 06z

Edited January 31, 2010 by andymusic

[summer blizzard]

I have had a good look at the models and i have decided that a breakdown to an unsettled warm pattern will occur around the 120-144 hours timeframe, what i do not agree with is the evolution of which each model even so close seems to have a different evolution and have decided that i actually think that the GME model has the correct breakdown pattern in my opinion, that is a push to south-westerlies on friday, but with no mild pattern before meaning that i think the UKMO is wrong.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1081.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

I do agree with the GFS evolotion after though, which is for the trough to sit pretty much on top of the UK with cool, showery weather.

How does the GME do in the verification stakes???

[Frosty.]

Although the GFS 06hrs run looks slightly better than the earlier 00hrs I have little confidence in anything it shows at the moment given its recent form. The UKMO still looks very poor in comparison and until that backtracks then we should just remain cautious about any potential snow for this week.

We've been waiting for it to backtrack for days and still it refuses to so it may well be right, lets hope not though!

Maybe the ukmo is performing poorly as well as looking poor.

scrap that, mild everywhere by friday

Edited January 31, 2010 by Frosty039

[PB22]

The upward trend continues on the 06z GFS ensembles:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

I can't help but laugh when I see people posting that FI is now at T+72 or whatever yet they have spent the last few days posting charts from beyond T+168! Lets have some consistency in the analysis eh? I don't think there is much dispute that some details are still to be determined for the coming week. Looking at the bigger picture though and the trend towards milder conditions that has become ever more evident today has been there in the models for a while now, but a lot of people didn't want to acknowledge it.

[Peter Henderson]

Most of the long range forcast models are now predicting the milder Atlantic air will win out this week:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead

Low pressure to dominate

Model suggests a south westerly wind flow will set up later during the forecast period which brings in milder air from the Atlantic. Confidence is not real high on this at the moment but it appears to become much more unsettled as Atlantic fronts bring in spells of heavy rain.

the threat of bitterly cold weather in mid Feb. that The Weather Outlook has been pushing does appear to have fizzled out.

[andymusic]

The upward trend continues on the 06z GFS ensembles:

http://www.wzkarten...._London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten....chester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten....berdeen_ens.png

I can't help but laugh when I see people posting that FI is now at T+72 or whatever yet they have spent the last few days posting charts from beyond T+168! Lets have some consistency in the analysis eh? I don't think there is much dispute that some details are still to be determined for the coming week. Looking at the bigger picture though and the trend towards milder conditions that has become ever more evident today has been there in the models for a while now, but a lot of people didn't want to acknowledge it.

"milder" but not full on mild - ensembles show 2 possible "milder" days then back down again??

[PB22]

"milder" but not full on mild - ensembles show 2 possible "milder" days then back down again??

Hence my term "milder" and not "mild"

Ensembles look to take a general upwards trend through the coming week to me with only some slight variations. Always taking that bit longer to turn "milder" across the north though.

[paul tall]

I do find it amusing that people are so busy looking at the models for a cold spell in 5 days time that they don't realise we are in a cold spell.

It's not amusing mate, it's sad. Sad but true.

[andymusic]

Hence my term "milder" and not "mild"

Ensembles look to take a general upwards trend through the coming week to me with only some slight variations. Always taking that bit longer to turn "milder" across the north though.

so we're not totally in the atlantic mild camp just yet then - still a few twists and turns and even surprises to come I think!

[nick sussex]

Maybe the ukmo is performing poorly as well as looking poor.

scrap that, mild everywhere by friday

Unfortunately the UKMO is verifying well at the moment so unfortunately we can't clutch this straw, it will be interesting to see how much of a dive the GFS takes later on with its verifications stats looking to implode into laughing stock territory!

Do you know I blame myself here for not sticking to my thoughts about the GFS and easterlies and also for not taking more note of the UKMO, its notorious for refusing to go with easterlies and being proved right so certainly i won't be making that mistake again.

Regarding the UKMO further outlook that expects the trough to make it far enough eastwards so because of this we want rid of the block to the east as soon as possible as pressure is likely to remain high over Greenland, to be honest I've had enough of Siberian blocks, the sooner its gone IMO the better.That will allow colder air in and reduce the mild mush!

Edited January 31, 2010 by nick sussex

[PB22]

game not over?

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 31 Jan 2010

Catching up slowly I see.

[Blizzardo]

Nothing very mild about the 6-15 day Met Office outlook and they are still hinting at it becoming colder later in the period.

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 31 Jan 2010

[andymusic]

Unfortunately the UKMO is verifying well at the moment so unfortunately we can't clutch this straw, it will be interesting to see how much of a dive the GFS takes later on with its verifications stats looking to implode into laughing stock territory!

Do you know I blame myself here for not sticking to my thoughts about the GFS and easterlies and also for not taking more note of the UKMO, its notorious for refusing to go with easterlies and being proved right so certainly i won't be making that mistake again.

wait until we pass next weekend first before being proved right or wrong!

[Tom D]

Hi all...looks like the twists and turns continue !!!!

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.

Updated: 1152 on Sun 31 Jan 2010

Is it just me or does that last sentence not fit with any of the rest of the forecast?

Edited January 31, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[J10]

Hence my term "milder" and not "mild"

Ensembles look to take a general upwards trend through the coming week to me with only some slight variations. Always taking that bit longer to turn "milder" across the north though.

While clearly looking milder for next week, there are still differences between the GFS and UKMO that would make a big differences on the ground. The GFS keeps a cold surface feed from the SE ahead of the fronts, giving a real chance of some snow in places, while the UKMO beings the milder air in much quicker and as such much less chance of any breakdwon snow.

[andymusic]

Is it just me or does that last sentence not fit with any of the rest of the forecast?

I agree with you - I still think there's a huge air of uncertainty even about the latter part (tuesday onwards) of this week yet

[Wales123098]

What happend to that easterly:| charts of changed drasticaly!

[PB22]

Is it just me or does that last sentence not fit with any of the rest of the forecast?

It's their way of backtracking...nice and gently and hope no-one notices! Expect the words cold or rather cold to disappear in the next day or two if the model output continues to trend in the way it has been for the last day or so.

Edited to confirm first line was a joke on my behalf.

Edited January 31, 2010 by Paul B

[Bobby]

Straws to clutch at:

• ECM was a sizeable mild outlier.
  
• Signals still for Northern blocking
  
• Jet stream tracking well south
  
• GFS 06z an improvement with potential battleground snow next week
  
• Still a degree of uncertainty
  

[karyo]

Well, I decided to have a lie in this morning rather than get up and check the models early. What a good idea that was!

The gfs has backtracked mejorly and so have the gefs and ecm encembles! The great lesson from this is, never look for an easterly that is in the 144-240 hour range.

I can't believe some posters are still looking at the 6z gfs and say it still looks promising for next week! Haven't you noticed how much the gfs has changed since yesterday?

Karyo

[nick sussex]

wait until we pass next weekend first before being proved right or wrong!

Because the block to the east is likely to sink you want rid of it as soon as possible, if it hangs around for too long the Atlantic trough won't be able to move east and you'll get stuck in mild sw'erlies, pressure is going to be high to the north and this is now the only route to colder weather, the best we can hope for is perhaps a little snow this week before the major low moves in, after this we want rid of the block to the east.

Theres zero chance of an easterly now so we should just move on and not dwell on what ifs.