Model Output Discussion

[andymusic]

We have a monster LP steaming in from the atlantic, knocking on our doorstep. We have HP its central pressure about 3500 miles away, who's gonna win. Its not my say either way, science. We've had a month of cold, and now the atlantic seems to want its share. Ramping up any kind of snow event this week, is only going to lead to tears and tantrums. I'm thinking with my head not my heart

not ramping, just telling it like I see it - I might be wrong - you might be wrong - just friendly debate

[PubliusEnigma]

But with respect Enigma lets not forget just because they all are singing from the same hymn sheet in regard to the next few days doesn't mean they are correct. Weather does what it wants and all the computing power in the world will not help in future predictions as no-one/no thing can see into the future.

Vindicating one model is not necessary as they all mess up from time to time. People just have to remain open to what is being shown guessed by the models.

A fair reply. I suppose Im looking at the trends rather than the outcome, ( obviously as it hasnt happened yet ). However the UKMO first spotted the trend correctly for the mild to return. GFS said no, easterly this week, and the ECM sat in the middle. Eventually he ECM trended with the UKMO, and now at the 11th hour, the GFS is calling it mild within 48 hours. Yes FI maybe at T+48 and we bin anything beyond that, but you cant ignore the trend the three are showing, unless of course, your Admiral Nelson and look the other way :lol:

[Bolton67]

We have a monster LP steaming in from the atlantic, knocking on our doorstep. We have HP its central pressure about 3500 miles away, who's gonna win. Its not my say either way, science. We've had a month of cold, and now the atlantic seems to want its share. Ramping up any kind of snow event this week, is only going to lead to tears and tantrums. I'm thinking with my head not my heart

It does not take a genius to suss out that the Atlantic owns the British Isles.

I've said in the last few days , it does not matter if the GFS OR ECM show a easterly, the Atlantic will always end up the winner.

she owns us. and no matter what people say she will always win.

[PubliusEnigma]

not ramping, just telling it like I see it - I might be wrong - you might be wrong - just friendly debate

Yes indeed and how refreshing it is this evening to see healthy debate without any bickering. As I just mentioned

my heart desperatley hopes the head is wrong ;o).

I was actually caught out as recently as Friday night, staying over in Guilford, we went out at 8PM only to see a

flurry of snow with MASSIVE flakes, which lasted all of 2 minutes, no real weather significance, but it lifted my heart,

and reminded me that this winter has been very memorable.

I also have a joker up my sleve, and I am 95% certain in my mind, that the snow is not done with yet, although I think we have a good 3 weeks to wait. :lol:

[andymusic]

It does not take a genius to suss out that the Atlantic owns the British Isles.

I've said in the last few days , it does not matter if the GFS OR ECM show a easterly, the Atlantic will always end up the winner.

she owns us. and no matter what people say she will always win.

not always - it's not always a forgone conclusion - especially recently - she's probably missed us I expect - we've been dancing to a different tune with a different mistress - I don't expect she's too happy about that - but that doesn't mean she can just barge in uninvited - does it!

Edited January 31, 2010 by andymusic

[cooling climate]

If the UKMO t144 chart were to verify then following on from that we could still be in a very cold

east southeasterly airflow by the 8th of February. Just a different way of getting there and all them

FI charts shown by the GFS could still be on the menu.

Very interesting week to come me thinks.

[PubliusEnigma]

If the UKMO t144 chart were to verify then following on from that we could still be in a very cold

east southeasterly airflow by the 8th of February. Just a different way of getting there and all them

FI charts shown by the GFS could still be on the menu.

Very interesting week to come me thinks.

Can you please post the chart you are referring to about an ESE wind at T144 ?

Thanks

[chris78]

It does not take a genius to suss out that the Atlantic owns the British Isles.

I've said in the last few days , it does not matter if the GFS OR ECM show a easterly, the Atlantic will always end up the winner.

she owns us. and no matter what people say she will always win.

excuse my ignorance but surly not always otherwise ...well we would never have easterlies or northerlies.

Sorry to pick on you but I think its this sort of extreme reaction that lots of people rightly complain about here

[nick sussex]

The GFS now has gone into Atlantic overdrive. Which isn't a great surprise seeing as it goes from one extreme to another,does anyone in here even care what it shows anymore?

This recent episode is poor even by GFS standards, going back to the serious models it looks like a slow moving low will become anchored to the west so we're going to have to just grin and bear it, pressure still seems to hang on to the east but this could just become a nuisance and trap the UK in a mild sw'erly flow, we really need this low further west or have to wait for it to weaken, unless the trough disrupts its hard to see how we can get back to a colder pattern, the only other route given the negative AO and NAO is for the trough to clear eastwards but this looks very unlikely.

I've had enough of the Siberian block so I do hope its not going to start another easterly tease!

Edited January 31, 2010 by nick sussex

[Thundery wintry showers]

With an Atlantic return now looking extremely likely it will be interesting to see where the ECM takes this pattern. This morning's ECM hinted at pressure rises to the NW, much like today's GFS 12Z, and this could lead in the long run to an evolution similar to the end of Dec 2009 when the Greenland High extended itself, the jet retreated south and cold north-easterlies arrived.

But with the UKMO at T+144 going for a rather different scenario it's unclear whether this will arise or not.

The UKMO did this before re. trend to mild SW'lys, picking out a SW'ly repeatedly at T+144 when the other models were going for cold. On all of the previous occasions so far this winter, the UKMO has been wrong to do so, so if it turns out to be right this time around (which seems likely) it doesn't mean that it's the most trustworthy model in these situations, but rather that there don't appear to be any cast-iron rules regarding which models can and can't be trusted.

[Bolton67]

not always - it's not always a forgone conclusion - especially recently - she's probably missed us I expect - we've been dancing to a different tune with a different mistress - I don't expect she's too happy about that - but that doesn't mean she can just barge in uninvited - does it!

Hi Andy.

no she just cannot barge in, but she will!!

and she will come in with a force. gale force wind and depressing rain.with temps in double figures.

[karyo]

The gfs 12z has backtracked even further and now it basically shows Atlantic driven weather! The UKMO has been consistent throughout.

I won't be paying much attention to what the gfs shows from now on. This model has gone trough a so called upgrade, but I seem no improvement. If anything, it continues to stick stubbornly to the wrong idea and inevitably backs down in the very end!

Karyo

[Matty M]

It does not take a genius to suss out that the Atlantic owns the British Isles.

I've said in the last few days , it does not matter if the GFS OR ECM show a easterly, the Atlantic will always end up the winner.

she owns us. and no matter what people say she will always win.

What a totally ridicilously naive and plainly annoying post.

We are here to comment on the models, if you don't want to discuss what they show then use another thread.

[Frosty.]

If the UKMO t144 chart were to verify then following on from that we could still be in a very cold

east southeasterly airflow by the 8th of February. Just a different way of getting there and all them

FI charts shown by the GFS could still be on the menu.

Very interesting week to come me thinks.

The GFS 12z in deep FI look interesting with reload potential and who knows what's over the horizon, the milder spell is unstoppable but once we are into it, there could be an end to it showing on the models by then.

[PubliusEnigma]

The GFS now has gone into Atlantic overdrive. Which isn't a great surprise seeing as it goes from one extreme to another,does anyone in here even care what it shows anymore?

This recent episode is poor even by GFS standards, going back to the serious models it looks like a slow moving low will become anchored to the west so we're going to have to just grin and bear it, pressure still seems to hang on to the east but this could just become a nuisance and trap the UK in a mild sw'erly flow, we really need this low further west or have to wait for it to weaken, unless the trough disrupts its hard to see how we can get back to a colder pattern, the only other route given the negative AO and NAO is for the trough to clear eastwards but this looks very unlikely.

I've had enough of the Siberian block so I do hope its not going to start another easterly tease!

With February being potentially the most benign month, the very worst case scenario could be as you describe.

With Low to the West and HP to the east and nothing budging very much and we end up in endless southerlies or SWesterlies, not blow torch but certainly not cold, with any cold returning being limted to March or even as far out as Easter.

[remymartin]

Here comes the ecm

[Bolton67]

excuse my ignorance but surly not always otherwise ...well we would never have easterlies or northerlies.

Sorry to pick on you but I think its this sort of extreme reaction that lots of people rightly complain about here

Lol, no offence taken. but lets take a look at the bigger picture?

who owns us ? the ATLANTIC or does The EASTERLY own us?

[andymusic]

Hi Andy.

no she just cannot barge in, but she will!!

and she will come in with a force. gale force wind and depressing rain.with temps in double figures.

well, we'll see - I'll respect your opinion and reserve my own to see whether the blocking cold can put up the fight of it's life against this intruding atlantic low

The gfs 12z has backtracked even further and now it basically shows Atlantic driven weather! The UKMO has been consistent throughout.

I won't be paying much attention to what the gfs shows from now on. This model has gone trough a so called upgrade, but I seem no improvement. If anything, it continues to stick stubbornly to the wrong idea and inevitably backs down in the very end!

Karyo

I don't think in this instance it's particularly GFS's fault, all the models have been struggling with the weather recently due to the blocking and so FI has been kept on a short leash

[Bolton67]

What a totally ridicilously naive and plainly annoying post.

We are here to comment on the models, if you don't want to discuss what they show then use another thread.

LOL , take a look at the GFS 12Z now, who is the winner ?

mrs Atlantic.

[Matty M]

The problem with the outlooks is that if we could latch onto some slightly better height rises up north, midweek could be very snowy.

[andymusic]

LOL , take a look at the GFS 12Z now, who is the winner ?

mrs Atlantic.

she's only won on the models - in reality it's flippin freezin out my back door still with snow today! - northerly - very cold - we'll see if she wins in the next few days - weeks!

[Buxton Codge]

Widespread double figure temperatures by next weekend. Shocking

[andymusic]

The problem with the outlooks is that if we could latch onto some slightly better height rises up north, midweek could be very snowy.

only needs a slight upgrade for the mother of all blizzards to break out and then we can chill the atlantic mistress down a bit

ECM looking similar to the GFS up to end of the week

Edited January 31, 2010 by andymusic

[Buxton Codge]

ECM 12z = MILD, WET & WINDY.

More like October rather than early February

[Frosty.]

Widespread double figure temperatures by next weekend. Shocking

Why are you so shocked, this is the uk not poland, the models have been showing a milder spell coming for the last few days.