Model Output Discussion

[Optimus Prime]

Jesus christ..it's cold in FI...well within the reliable timeframe its unsettled and mild.

We've been here before.

[bluearmy]

the evolution of the 18z bang in line with the NAEFS - hard to have confidence after what we've just been through though.

[Matty M]

Jesus christ..it's cold in FI...well within the reliable timeframe its unsettled and mild.

We've been here before.

In the short term its unsettled and mild?

Do you look at the same charts?

[MR EXTREMES]

Jesus christ..it's cold in FI...well within the reliable timeframe its unsettled and mild.

We've been here before.

and i might add no one thought fi recently would happen but it is so theres no reson to suspect a cold fi could not happen aswell,

this is what happens when teleconnection play havok with our atmosphere.

[nick sussex]

Nick, What are your thoughts with the Moscow WMC 12Z 108h & 120h.

Oh dear things must be bad if you're looking at the Russian model! It actually looks similar to the ECM in the earlier timeframe. The UKMO tonight unfortunately go with their own model in the fax charts which is disappointing although the 120hrs fax chart isn't quite as horrific as I expected it to be!

Those shortwaves coming out of the USA are a real pain as they just feed that Atlantic trough, if you noticed the GFS tries to disrupt the trough sending that shortwave se wards but then up pops its reinforcement shortwave which deepens and spins ne'wards.

[swilliam]

I think there ar two important benefits if we get an evolution like this (a much less energetic and progressive change to less cold)

1) We end with a colder week ahead with more possibilities for snow especially in the North

2) The cold air over the East and especially Scandinavia does not get displaced. So if we do get a later bought of favourabe blocking and perhaps an Easterly then we have some cold air to tap into. This is as shown on FI in this run.

[ribster]

Jesus christ..it's cold in FI...well within the reliable timeframe its unsettled and mild.

We've been here before.

Not sure that anything has verified yet has it? It's been -4.7c last night and 2c today, and I think you'll find that temps will be close to average (certainly here). And as previously stated, it's the model discussion, not the reliable timeframe discussion - if that bothers you tough! And maybe you can save your JCs for somewhere else....

Edited January 31, 2010 by ribster

[shiver]

Oh dear things must be bad if you're looking at the Russian model! It actually looks similar to the ECM in the earlier timeframe. The UKMO tonight unfortunately go with their own model in the fax charts which is disappointing although the 120hrs fax chart isn't quite as horrific as I expected it to be!

Those shortwaves coming out of the USA are a real pain as they just feed that Atlantic trough, if you noticed the GFS tries to disrupt the trough sending that shortwave se wards but then up pops its reinforcement shortwave which deepens and spins ne'wards.

yep that 120 fax looks nothing like the countryfile fcast at the same time something has changed i tell you

[kent]

and i might add no one thought fi recently would happen but it is so theres no reson to suspect a cold fi could not happen aswell,

this is what happens when teleconnection play havok with our atmosphere.

As my grandfather would say. Sometimes with this high tec stuff, things can can get all messed up.: Grin.

[guitarnutter]

Quick! Everyone post cold charts from deep FI before it's too late!

20mph wind, 2 inches of snow per hour for 12-24 hours, 24-48 inches of snow in se.

People in the se, start buying food stocks, you will be cut off for weeks.

[80sWeather]

I think there ar two important benefits if we get an evolution like this (a much less energetic and progressive change to less cold)

1) We end with a colder week ahead with more possibilities for snow especially in the North

2) The cold air over the East and especially Scandinavia does not get displaced. So if we do get a later bought of favourabe blocking and perhaps an Easterly then we have some cold air to tap into. This is as shown on FI in this run.

Great post this is a trend that will hopefully start to show,damage limitation for future cold outbreaks.

[yamkin]

Oh dear things must be bad if you're looking at the Russian model! It actually looks similar to the ECM in the earlier timeframe. The UKMO tonight unfortunately go with their own model in the fax charts which is disappointing although the 120hrs fax chart isn't quite as horrific as I expected it to be!

Those shortwaves coming out of the USA are a real pain as they just feed that Atlantic trough, if you noticed the GFS tries to disrupt the trough sending that shortwave se wards but then up pops its reinforcement shortwave which deepens and spins ne'wards.

I usually look at the Moscow model. They seem to have sorted out a few output issues and look good nowadays

I think the shortwaves/troughs out in the Atlantic are too progressive.

[Duane S.]

Quite inexplicably I am suddenly more optimistic (after a day away from the madness on here) that actually maybe it is not all over in terms of getting a continental feed come this time next week.

In the same way that the 00z's picked up the signal to drive SW's way beyond the meridian, I can see the models over the next few days increasing the strength of the block, driving SW's on a lower track and building greater heights over GL.

Not a raging Easterly forecast by any mean stretch of the imagination but certainly not endless SW'erlies.

[nick sussex]

yep that 120 fax looks nothing like the countryfile fcast at the same time something has changed i tell you

Thats because the countryfile was using the 00hrs output, the latest fax charts are going off the 12hrs data. I really would ask people to not get too excited with anything the GFS shows as its basically going into my cannon fodder model section as punishment for its recent useless performance!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Like I say, patiently awaiting the 12z runs on Monday. Look beyond t96 with suspicion. Mild scenario is NOT set in stone, the talk of waiting to get new pattern out of the way...what pattern? We aren't in it yet...but also folks looking for beast from east...no. Look N and NW.

BFTP

As usual, a sensible post. Every time I end up commenting, it's usually to say FI isn't T192, it's not eevn T96 it's somewhere between T48 and T72.

What does it matter if we have a short mild spell, there are a lot of people would like Mushy to have his favourite for th erest of the winter, especially if you look at what Mr Data has been saying, so far, we've been cold, the models suggest some warmth this week, this is not the end of winter, we'll have some more cold before this is out.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It is clear that some folk are 'willing' the breakdown and mild weather. If it happens, it happens if it doesn't, it doesn't. BUT FOR SURE it hasn't happened yet. What is going to happen is less cold for mid week...then we hit FI. The models are exciting at the moment because there are tweaks and little twists going on and the fact nothing is settled makes it even more interesting...so enjoy. Remember, most energy will got to southern arm...that always makes it interesting.

BFTP

[Cloud 10]

yep that 120 fax looks nothing like the countryfile fcast at the same time something has changed i tell you

That 120 fax is certainly modified from the raw output,with the centre of the low west of ireland instead of NW of scotland.

Still not brilliant,but i'm in a real straw-clutching mood tonight after all that talk about record breaking mild and t-shirts.

[Rollo]

Well I did say watch the 18z throw a curve ball.. The Euro's will hopefully follow suit over next 24 hrs. It aint over yet folks...

Its the pub run folks! However just maybe it has latched onto something new-as other posters have said even the mild air has not won the first skimish yet so 2 or 3 more nail biting days for both cold and mild lovers.

[damianslaw]

Latest 120hr FAX chart not so keen on showing the low pressure to get across the meridian. A signal that the blocking to the NE is going to be more difficult to shift than perhaps expected earlier today.. Its a situation we have been in for much of this winter, those heights to the NE have been very stubborn.. if this signal continues expect the models to show increasing signs of 'undercutting' towards the end of the week with a more southerly flow turning south easterly as opposed to direct south westerlies. As I stated earlier the longer term trend is for strong northern blocking and these 'signals' are very much in line with the longer term trend.

The overall pattern is still 'locked in cold' with any atlantic influence a temporary feature.

[Geordiesnow]

Thats because the countryfile was using the 00hrs output, the latest fax charts are going off the 12hrs data. I really would ask people to not get too excited with anything the GFS shows as its basically going into my cannon fodder model section as punishment for its recent useless performance!

To be fair Nick, it seems all the models bar the UKMO have struggled recently(although it had it wobble regarding the easterly about a week or 2 back). I still think the GFS is a good model for medium term forecasting but not so good short term. The easterly the GFS did show was surported by every model(although not all supported how potent it will be) apart from the UKMO hence why everyone was thinking the UKMO will backdown. Obviously something went wrong somewhere but these things happen and you move on.

Current output is not too good for cold lover although for most people, this week should not turn that much milder apart from southern and western areas, hopefully the models will downgrade the potential mild blast of air for next weekend. It goes to show how quickly the weather output can change and i can see no reason why to think winter is over just yet.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think there ar two important benefits if we get an evolution like this (a much less energetic and progressive change to less cold)

1) We end with a colder week ahead with more possibilities for snow especially in the North

2) The cold air over the East and especially Scandinavia does not get displaced. So if we do get a later bought of favourabe blocking and perhaps an Easterly then we have some cold air to tap into. This is as shown on FI in this run.

Nice post. I feel though that height rises look more likely to come from the northwest than the east, in spite of what FI of the models show, but having a cold continent is of course important if we do manage to get a flow from the continent, whether transient a la the +96/120 hour pub run or a prolonged easterly. Time will tell but nothing is decided yet after next weekend.

LS

[Thundery wintry showers]

Latest model performance stats for both T+120 and T+144 have seen UKMO slip behind ECMWF again, but significantly, staying clearly ahead of GFS (whereas over the past 2-3 years UKMO has tended to be approximately level with GFS). I don't think GFS is in "cannon fodder" territory by any means, but we need to bear in mind that over the last few months it has been significantly poorer overall than both of the Euro models.

[TEITS]

Shall we start ramping at the GFS F.I E,ly.

Interesting looking at the models because even now the 18Z GFS/GEM do not agree with the UKMO/ECM at +120.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

As Nick S correctly says the Atlantic trough recieves a top via the SW coming out of the US at +72. However looking at the 18Z +120 if the trough is further W and the SW is less intense than the GFS shows then just maybe we might pull in a colder continental flow.

Obviously im not suggesting the E,ly is back on. However im far from convinced about the mild S/SW,lys for Friday. This could very easily change to a colder SE/E,ly flow.

I have to say looking overall at the ECM extended ensembles and the GFS 18Z the outlook might not be as bad as I currently feared earlier.

[swilliam]

To be fair Nick, it seems all the models bar the UKMO have struggled recently(although it had it wobble regarding the easterly about a week or 2 back). I still think the GFS is a good model for medium term forecasting but not so good short term. The easterly the GFS did show was surported by every model(although not all supported how potent it will be) apart from the UKMO hence why everyone was thinking the UKMO will backdown. Obviously something went wrong somewhere but these things happen and you move on.

Current output is not too good for cold lover although for most people, this week should not turn that much milder apart from southern and western areas, hopefully the models will downgrade the potential mild blast of air for next weekend. It goes to show how quickly the weather output can change and i can see no reason why to think winter is over just yet.

See my earlier post re the supposed success of the UKMO output. The low shown to the West of Ireland on the 120 fax was supposed to be over Denmark according the 144 yesterday - people are making the mistake of judging he models based on weather rather than the synoptic situation (so I think it will actually get a low score for that forecast - although I am not sure how they estimate the verification score - anybody know?).

Edited January 31, 2010 by swilliam

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just reading back from early evening - about 20% of tonights posts were actually realistic, sensible and balanced accounts of the models and where the outlook may go.

The rest was unsubstantiated drivel.

In terms of that very outlook the GFS 18z reflects a quite probable reality of the next 10 days or so. The most plausible model output seen today imo, taking into account all relevant background factors.

Night.

Edited January 31, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection