North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[sconetone]

Quite possibly TS

However, alot of the snowfall events over Christmas/New Year were not forecasted to be anything like they were so I wouldn't give up completely. There is still a chance, however slim

Edited February 14, 2010 by sconetone

[NW_Blackburn]

BBC forecasted my area for light snow shower on Tuesday. Met Office has removed the weather advisory for the NW area and most areas to be honest. But the BBC has been accurate as of late for forecasting snow. For me anyway.

Edited February 14, 2010 by NW_Blackburn

[damianslaw]

Whilst it is now looking the front coming through tomorrow is likely to bring rain to low levels, once it clears through on Tuesday we are going to be left in cold uppers and it from Tuesday night onwards chances of low level snowfall increase..

The FAX charts are hinting at trough development from the Irish Sea - Wednesday and more particularly Thursday, with more favourable cold upper temps if these do develop and bring intense precipitation, I think there is a very high chance of some low level snow cover across the region.

Towards the end of the week - increasingly looking snowy in my eyes.

The BBC advisories seem to chop and change in the space of a few hours, the BBC cannot pick up on shortwaves or small trough features which develop in very short timescales, so don't be too dispondent that the BBC are not showing any for our region.

[cheshire snow]

Whilst it is now looking the front coming through tomorrow is likely to bring rain to low levels, once it clears through on Tuesday we are going to be left in cold uppers and it from Tuesday night onwards chances of low level snowfall increase..

The FAX charts are hinting at trough development from the Irish Sea - Wednesday and more particularly Thursday, with more favourable cold upper temps if these do develop and bring intense precipitation, I think there is a very high chance of some low level snow cover across the region.

Towards the end of the week - increasingly looking snowy in my eyes.

The BBC advisories seem to chop and change in the space of a few hours, the BBC cannot pick up on shortwaves or small trough features which develop in very short timescales, so don't be too dispondent that the BBC are not showing any for our region.

Agree 100%

What a sensible post

C.S

[NW_Blackburn]

Just heavy rain here

Defiantly a day to stay inside!

[les1234]

Yes heavy rain showers here also.I think tomorrow and Wednesday may give us a few surprises ,local radio at mid day also gave a warning that winter had not finished with us yet and there is a possibility off snow in the days to come. Even BBC northwest at 13.00 forecast some snow and not just for high ground and she is a big mild ram-per.

What do you think cs?

Edited February 15, 2010 by les1234

[cheshire snow]

Yes heavy rain showers here also.I think tomorrow and Wednesday may give us a few surprises ,local radio at mid day also gave a warning that winter had not finished with us yet and there is a possibility off snow in the days to come. Even BBC northwest at 13.00 forecast some snow and not just for high ground and she is a big mild ram-per.

What do you think cs?

Hi Les

Yes i heard the milder ramper at 1330 also

my take on it going of the latest models is this

today Rain claearing through the turner colder with wintry showers following,these been of sleet,hail

on low ground with snow for the higher ground these lasting through tuesday and into Wednesday

into Wen night/Thurs morning things turn intresting as this rain we currently have heads back towards

our region bumping into the cold air already in place,for low ground i expect 2-5cm of snow with upto

10cm on higher ground

just my take on things according to the models and subject to change

C.S

[Liam J]

quite heavy rainfall from the cold front, temp fallen slightly to 4.6c todays max was 5.5c its feeling a bit chillier outside now, there will be a mess if this freezes later overnight...

i can see some beefy looking showers heading in from the west just now.

[NW_Blackburn]

BBC forecast for my are has Snow at 3am. Hail Shower at 9am and Snow at 12pm and 3pm. Shall see if any of it happens. 12z seems similar to the 6z earlier on and predicting more of a sleety mix than snow.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Cant see any chance of lying snow tomorrow its been raining pretty much all day here.

and i have 180m asl so no chance for low lying places.

[shadowfax]

Seems to be a bit more sleety here in the heavy bursts. Hopefully the temperatures will start to drop and it will turn to snow as the night progresses.

Shadowfax

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Had an heavy rain shower with sleet mixed in about 20 minutes ago

[Backtrack]

Heavy rain has made the temp plummet from 5.0c to 3.7c in less than half an hour.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Metoffice has heavy snow for my area in the morning with further snow showers throughout the day, personally I think that is super over estimating!!

[sconetone]

Tell you something, it had better snow tomorrow. It's my birthday tomorrow so I insist on it

[shadowfax]

Looking at the gfs so far, the snow risk for this area is increasing all the time, a vast improvement, even looks very heavy and more cold air coming in around the low which was not shown on the earlier run.

Fingers crossed that my altitude will make all the difference.

[lukemc]

Hi,

If we get some snow in the next few days when would be the best time too look out for it? Tomorrow? Tomorrow night or Wednesday and Thursday - which is looking best for snow at the moment? Is it possible we could see some frontal snowfall as that front moves back west into the cold air? Are the parameters expected to be ok for us I notice that we should under -5 uppers by tomorrow how are dewpoints looking for our area (Liverpool etc) - what is the wind direction at the moment I think the winds are coming from the South West - would that reduce the chance of Irish Sea modification what is the wind direction expected to be for the next few days? Are the irish sea SSTs colder now than they were in December and should that reduce the chance of modification increasing our chances of seeing snowfall?

Luke

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow could throw up some surprises for one or two spots in terms of localised low level snowfalls, plenty of showers will develop over the Irish Sea, with colder air aloft and with the aid of evaporative cooling courtesy of heavier showers some fairly low lying areas could see some temporary snow cover alebit very slight and short-lived I would imagine.

My attention is turning towards Thursday am as the front we have now will be making a reappearance, increasing signs that this will give some temporary snow cover, again all will depend on its exact track and the intensity of precipitation.

Further ahead, the weekend looks a potential snowfest in places.. its very much a wintry outlook, in these setups, expect surprises..

[NW_Blackburn]

18z looks good for Thursday and Friday. Fingers crossed. Hoping for some temporary snow cover tomorrow after looking at the BBC forecast which shows snow showers. Netweather shows more of a rain/sleet mix. We shall see.

Edited February 15, 2010 by NW_Blackburn

[NW_Blackburn]

Can report wet snow at the moment. Started off as sleet but as turned to wet snow as the ppn has intensified a bit.

Back to rain/sleet now with the odd flake mixed in at the moment.

Edited February 16, 2010 by NW_Blackburn

[shadowfax]

What a surprise, it was heavy sleet at 1030 last night and now its all white! I would say between 2-3 cms on everything and also its icy. It doesnt feel like it will stay around there is that drip drip coming from the eaves.

Shadowfax

Its now 0715 and its snowing again.

Edited February 16, 2010 by shadowfax

[les1234]

Woke up to a light covering on the grass and roofs this morning ,lets see what the day brings.

[Snowmad79]

Not been on for a while but I thought id pop in to let you all know .. that dispite no warnings on meto currently since 4.30 am this morning weve had heavy snow on and off and currently its around 3 or 4 inches deep and decent sized flakes ... good stuff !

[les1234]

snowing heavy here now with big flakes.

[Snow free zone]

snowing heavy here now with big flakes.

No snow in Preston this morning. A bit of hail on the cars when i got up but its clear all the way up to Lancaster not a flake in sight.