Model Output Discussion:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Actually it would, 850mb temperatures at T+96 - T+120 are -7 widely across the country. In addition, towards T+168, there would be renewed chance. T+168 is very similar to the the pressure readings in January which delivered snow showers at 1025 - 1030mb - giving 5cm in several places in the East of Ireland.

Granted it's not as good as UKMO/GFS, but it certainly would deliver snow showers into the East, albeit light in nature, on some occasions between T+72 and T+168.

Yes ecm is not as good for as gfs/ukmo for most of us SA.But i agree with you i think East Ireland would

see snow showers from the irish sea.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ecm not too keen on, reminds me too much of 17th-19th Dec, especially now the northerly looks like showing for the weekend, like the 19th Dec

[Southender]

All that matters is the "Big 3" agree that we are back in the freezer, after this weekend.

We can start to firm up on snow etc in the next 48 hrs onwards.

I think there will be plenty of showers for many parts of the UK.

As a sidenote. If the ECM went past +240, I'm sure it would show a reload from the NE...

Look where the HP has gone...

Edited February 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[TEITS]

All i`m gonna say is we would of killed for this run on tuesday night, just shows you what just one days of excellent runs does to people, makes them super fussy overanalysing every single detail

Very true but unsurprising as im doing it.

Seen enough of the ECM to be satisfied. I still think at this stage the UKMO/GFS is more likely for the simple reason that I prefer these models at the +96/+120 timeframe especially the UKMO. This isn't surprising because how often does the +96/+120 fax charts resemble the UKMO? Probably about 80% of the time.

Personally I would prefer a NE,ly than a ENE/E,ly. I say this because my location does alot better with a NE,ly. Furthermore I wouldn't have to keep reading "Thames Streamer". This drove me insane during the last cold spell as every 5 min flurry was a streamer developing. :lol:

Overall I don't think we could of expected much better than what we have seen today. Hopefully this will continue into Saturday when the detail should be clearer.

[Archie_Lewis]

More snow for the SE-- Bitter everywhere-

Reload from the NW of Norway coming through-- Atlantic shortwaves heading towards Azores & on towards africa...

S

Come on Steve that's nearly 10 days away!

Upto 120hrs is looking spot on from all the big three! I will not look any further than that because I'm 99.9% sure anything after that will change!

What a turn around from the models! Great stuff

[SMU]

The way the pattern is loading up I would tend to slightly disagree with GP in as much as the pressure belt ( the sausage special) running from Ireland NW to Greenland) looks to split & deflect the jet miles & miles either side of the UK from an atlantic point of view-

Taking this point at face value the cold spell is destined for 7-10 days at least-

this BTW is the sausage special-

S

Edited February 4, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Bobby]

Don't like ECM, not much in the way of snow IMBY (and much of Britain). Hopefully something like the UKMO/GFS is more likely.

Pretty good for the SE though.

[kold weather]

All i`m gonna say is we would of killed for this run on tuesday night, just shows you what just one days of excellent runs does to people, makes them super fussy overanalysing every single detail

Yep thats a very true point, the models are amazingly different to what we saw on Sunday for example when some came across as if winter was over!

Anyway cold through to 240hrs, though I suspect by 216hrs for pretty much everyone it'd be a cloudy and cold flow rather then the snowy and sunny type evolution as the upper high expands.

240hrs is suggestive that the cold isn't going anywhere soon either, going to become a west based -ve NAO it seems but I suspect all it would do is bring in a northerly eventually.

[dallas]

the 240 showing some of the PV dropping down and maybe lining up the UK

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php

[Geordiesnow]

All i`m gonna say is we would of killed for this run on tuesday night, just shows you what just one days of excellent runs does to people, makes them super fussy overanalysing every single detail :lol:

I agree with this, plus bearing in mind there will be further changes ahead, even if the ECM did look like the UKMO/GFS, you can't guarantee it will come off just like that. I think the good news with this run is that it has backed away slightly from it earlier output and it keeps the easterly flow going for slightly longer but it still goes for the idea that high pressure will topple over us only leaving a few locations by that stage having any risk of snowfall.

Lets hope the GFS can keep up with the trend that is has shown all day and have the ECM backtrack even further by the morning. I doubt that though but it can happen.

[Frosty.]

Excellent 12z runs today, once again the ecm looks drier but very frosty, much as the 00z but snowy for the southeast and a chance of hp retrogression which would allow a N'ly to bring snow to the areas which initially miss out but looking at charts which are 6,7,8 days away we know the ecm will change a lot more over the next few days. There is medium to high confidence now for a very cold spell next week but still some tinkering with shortwaves and hp/lp position to sort out.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is an awful lot of E Anglia/SE dominance on the thread and it puts a lot of people off posting - I know that from the PMs I get.

Anyway, I don't know why the ECM doesn't sink from T144, clearly this juncture will be dependent on upstream signals which are not certain yet.

I guess it must be because of too much relative energy in the southern arm of the jet, similar to the 5th-8th January 2010 when the high that came down from the NW on the 6th failed to sink beyond Scotland.

[kold weather]

Anyway, I don't know why the ECM doesn't sink from T144, clearly this juncture will be dependent on upstream signals which are not certain yet.

I think it has all to do with the upper low sinking away from the PV towards Russia, that helps to boost up the upper high somewhat and allows the upper high to gain a little bit in latitude again.

[TEITS]

Completely alright, but this is a national thread, not a regional thread.

True but to be honest myself and many others will comment on the overall trend of the models for the UK. However when it comes to details i.e snowfall then many will only look towards their own location for the reasons I gave.

[kent]

Excellent 12z runs today, once again the ecm looks drier but very frosty, much as the 00z but snowy for the southeast and a chance of hp retrogression which would allow a N'ly to bring snow to the areas which initially miss out but looking at charts which are 6,7,8 days away we know the ecm will change a lot more over the next few days. There is medium to high confidence now for a very cold spell next week but still some tinkering with shortwaves and hp/lp position to sort out.

For areas that normally miss out? From my own location in Poole on the south coast it would take something close to armegheddon to beat the one and a half cms accumulated here over the last 20 years lol. All the recently posted charts do not fill me with anything less than another one missed.

[Geordiesnow]

Tbh, why i'm saying all of this I don't know. The easterly is not even nailed, and snow estimations, who will get the most etc is pretty much suicide. I just think when people post regarding the models, they should lean towards the output on a whole for the U.K, why would someone in the NE or Scotland want to go through pages of posts about EA/SE england? It does not add anything to the dicussion does it?

On the ECM run, the snow potential is generally in EA & SE and that what people are menturning... I don't see the problem in that.

Of course the problem comes along when a Northerly is being predicted and its just a toppler and the places that get hit are Northern Scotland and perhaps down both eastern and western coasts and the same members who talk about it downplays the significance of a brief Northerly toppler when in fact, places in Northern Scotland tend to see quite a bit of snowfall, maybe even more than the would from an easterly!

If the ECM shown something like the GFS/UKMO, i would understand your frustrations Lewis but this time around, the fact is the further south and east you are the better on this run. :lol:

[Frosty.]

For areas that normally miss out? From my own location in Poole on the south coast it would take something close to armegheddon to beat the one and a half cms accumulated here over the last 20 years lol. All the recently posted charts do not fill me with anything less than another one missed.

I'm actually hoping the ecm is wrong today, for 75% of the uk it would be dry with high pressure in control and just the southeastern quarter of england catching some snow. Thankfully there will be plenty more changes which might favour snow in other locations as well, looks cold everywhere next week though which is a big plus.

[kold weather]

Ok people this is a model thread not somewhere we moan, rightly or wrongly, about off topic stuff like this.

I'll just remind everyone we do have a 'whinging' thread for people who feel annoyed by the models:

http://forum.netweat...whining-thread/

Also model mood thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59276-model-chat-and-moods/page__pid__1746462__st__136entry1746462

Stay on topic please and carry on, only 2 hours till the 18z come out!

Edited February 4, 2010 by kold weather

[cooling climate]

Well I am going to say it even if no one else does.....I think the big freeze is well and truly nailed.

There said it. Seriously the models have sorted the problem out with regards to the energy spilling

into the Atlantic and have moved on from there.

We have complete agreement between the big three models unlike earlier in the week when they

were showing mild it still never looked convincing as the t96-t120 back then showed.

Big freeze number 3 is on its way and I think it will be the longest, coldest and snowiest of the three.

I will also be surprised if anyone misses out although there are more favored locations than others.

[kold weather]

I'm still not totally sure its nailed, at least the sort of solution the GFS/UKMO have, however I think now that the cold evolution begins to occur around 48hrs the chances are we will have a cold spell, its just how it evolves that seems to be left to decide at the moment.

[stewfox]

Well I am going to say it even if no one else does.....I think the big freeze is well and truly nailed.

So the fat ladies now sung and gone to bed ?? I see it that she is just clearing her throat.

GFS and UKMO are looking more favoured for snow then the ECM (area wise) but I still think another 36 hrs before we put her to bed, get the cold in then talk about snow potential by looking at the models at the time.

Edited February 4, 2010 by stewfox

[kold weather]

Last post of the night from me but what I'd say Stew is I think the *cold* is just about nailed on now, whether that means a set-up thats snowy or not as you suggest is uncertain but as we should get the cold now at least the chances of snow are present and they very likely will crop up at points...

[MP-R]

I would have thought something like this may bring snow a bit further westwards than just the southeast and East Anglia:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

[Optimus Prime]

I would have thought something like this may bring snow a bit further westwards than just the southeast and East Anglia:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1441.html

We all need to wait till nearer the time - Less pace more haste.

I guarantee these charts would bring widespread heavy snow to most parts of England. There's absolutely no chance snow wouldn't fall widely and heavily from that setup. Still a while to go, plenty of time for a change so wait until we're within 3 days of it.

[MP-R]

We all need to wait till nearer the time - Less pace more haste.

I guarantee these charts would bring widespread heavy snow to most parts of England. There's absolutely no chance snow wouldn't fall widely and heavily from that setup. Still a while to go, plenty of time for a change so wait until we're within 3 days of it.

Oh ye of course. I just got the impression there was a lot of a mention of snow in the southeast and EA and mainly clear elsewhere. A setup like that however would not be the case. As you say though, let's wait until nearer the time. Either way, fantastic model runs at the moment.