Model Output Discussion:

[cold snap]

Another day Another dollar

18z Looks Epic so Far,

Cant wait for the UKMO faxes to roll out

[Matty M]

Here starts the downgrade.

Uh ohhhhh

18z GFS is quite like the ECM, in not wanting to propagade trough over Scandy southwestwards and just drops the at this stage

weak ridge over us.

Chilly but not want we wanted.

[aspire27]

Quiet is good, means there's no changes for the worse.

Everyones over on TWO.

Downgrade already? I said this earlier about downgrades. But again my post was deleted.

No way as cold or snowy as the 12z.

Edited February 4, 2010 by aspire27

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like this run is trending towards the ECM at the moment with a brief showery airstream before pressure builds leaving is under cold settled conditions.

As ever before we can confirm what might happen, we need to view tomorrow mornings runs before making too much judgement as the output has been volatile recently.

[smich]

We've had a major flip towards cold over the last 48 hrs or so, don't surprised if there is a slight correction over the next few runs.

smich

[on the coast]

Looks like the cold going south in to europe AGAIN!! 18z looks cold and thats all.

[bluearmy]

its only one run and in isolation, it shouldnt be taken too seriously. however, when it picks up closer to the evolution of a model that shows a slightly different solution to the other 'big two' it has some weight.

[Matty M]

I hope this isnt happening but after this evening ECM and the 18z GFS i am growing very weary.

Another let down may be on the cards, a poor trend this evening and with the state of that block that the 18z GFS

puts over us it would not take too many changes for it to be totally blown away.

[remymartin]

Dont lets get on a downer its the 18h how many times have people said lets ignore it in the past.

[Archie_Lewis]

This is why you must never never look past 120hr

Its a skill in itself to be able to this.

[Weathizard]

Lets not get carried away here, we need to see the next few models first I'd say.

[Lewis]

Its one run, and another possible evolution.

Before we start getting all the comments, about it being a huge downgrade, and the Atlantic is going to push in soon, and there's no snow. etc. Let me remind you that this time last week we was looking at a possible months worth of Atlantic LP systems, and they was talks of 17c been branded about, i won't mention anybody's name. And please don't start the talk about the 18z having an history of been wrong etc, it's a member of the runs, so take it like you would any other run.

Lets see how it pans out, at least let the run finish.

All take a deep breath, and look foward to tomorrow mornings run's.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[cold snap]

Looks like this run is trending towards the ECM at the moment with a brief showery airstream before pressure builds leaving is under cold settled conditions.

As ever before we can confirm what might happen, we need to view tomorrow mornings runs before making too much judgement as the output has been volatile recently.

Looked Epic at the Start then went all ECM on us,Want look at the rest of the run,not from a point im upset with it

But i feel its not the direct cold pool hit we might of wanted.

Its a great run for very cold conditions,But the flow is very light,Its okay even so.

ECM 8/10

GFS 8/10

UKMO 9/10

UKMO faxes should be out soon i think.see where we might me going towards any ppn

As ever things may change

[LomondSnowstorm]

Beginning to work its way back by +138 though http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-138.png?18

Nonetheless, a bit of a frustrating run, but I believe we've seen the easterly/northeasterly coming in earlier and earlier on each run, going from Wednesday to even Sunday morning on the 12Z. Perhaps this isn't too bad at all! http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-144.png?18

edit: Cold pool diminished? http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-150.png?18

Edited February 4, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[January Snowstorm]

This is much worse than the ECM and there is no way that this could develop into what the ECM goes onto show, just a small change in heights on Monday from what this run shows and there will be no cold spell !

Would have to agree, as I said last night a very flimsy block!

Very different to early Jan

[Snowyowl9]

its only one run and in isolation, it shouldnt be taken too seriously. however, when it picks up closer to the evolution of a model that shows a slightly different solution to the other 'big two' it has some weight.

Looks like the atlantic is dead in the water.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

[Lewis]

This is much worse than the ECM and there is no way that this could develop into what the ECM goes onto show, just a small change in heights on Monday from what this run shows and there will be no cold spell !

You spoke to soon, this is why you should let the run finish, it shows the height building again, with an easterly coming into play;

[Matty M]

I see that the usual silly comments are starting to appear.

It's one run from one model. Get a grip.

One run indeed but a very important trend was picked up by the ECM and this has been enhanced by more by the 18z GFS

Obviously a key factor has been picked up that is leading to the degradation of this Ridge to our north.

And if it is continued in the 0z its effects could be amplified.

Obviously it's a fluid situation and could easily swing back the other way but at this moment in time

the indications are not as good as they were earlier and for Ireland anyway are pretty poor going by ECM and now GFS.

[nick sussex]

Winters over! :smiliz19: I knew that this run would be met with disappointment, however not every single gfs run is going to look the same. It's funny I'm just relieved to see the pattern consistent with sw dropping south out of Scandi so I think it's a good run, as we can see as it progresses the Atlantic thinks its going to make a guest appearance but gets shown the door.

[Bobby]

This is much worse than the ECM and there is no way that this could develop into what the ECM goes onto show, just a small change in heights on Monday from what this run shows and there will be no cold spell !

Quite an odd looking run, another possible scenario I suppose. We're still a long way from being settled on an eventual outcome despite what some might have thought, a look at the ensembles (not the diagrames) will highlight that.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Barb-

[I remember Atlantic 252]

feel FI could be better than the 12Z for weekend, looks like arriving later

[Paul T]

I see that the usual silly comments are starting to appear.

It's one run from one model. Get a grip.

Eastily will come in stronger, but 36hrs later than previous, watch the next few frames roll in.

Cold still present, trend still continuing. Not bad at all.

Paul

[Matty M]

I also notice the trend now to push back the intense cold push further in FI

Giving us a cold push but not that cold and then to a potential reload in the realms of fantasy.

[cooling climate]

The 18z at t120 is making more of a segment of vortex over northern Greenland, which has

a knock on effect of lowering heights to our north.

This could be just the 18z run for you but never the less a cold spell still in progress.

Every indication is that the AO will go steeply negative where as the 18z run by t132

has removed the heights over the Arctic and a +AO is in place.

One for the bin in my opinion as this will have a big impact on the rest of the run.

Edited February 4, 2010 by cooling climate

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think we're quite a long way from the Atlantic crashing in for Monday on this run to be honest, though we are indeed just margins away from seeing a cold high settle over the British Isles giving cold bright weather and no snow.