Model Output Discussion:

[cold snap]

Winters over! I knew that this run would be met with disappointment, however not every single gfs run is going to look the same. It's funny I'm just relieved to see the pattern consistent with sw dropping south out of Scandi so I think it's a good run, as we can see as it progresses the Atlantic thinks its going to make a guest appearance but gets shown the door.

Nick i know you dont rate GFS

But of late it has not stood up to its name as Pub run With epic charts.

[kpm62]

So much variability still in the weather systems,its pointless looking beyond Sunday night ,75hrs,for any degree of accuracy.That huge block of cold air out to the NE still looks very menacing and I wouldn't rule it out that come next week it will be over us.

[Lewis]

The 18z at t120 is making more of a segment of vortex over northern Greenland, which has

a knock on effect of lowering heights to our north.

This could be just the 18z run for you but never the less a cold spell still in progress.

Good spot/post, i like the 18z run.

Why? NO huge change at t72-t96, cold air makes it here, a NNE, block starts to rebuild, keeping atlantic systems at bay, with a re-load Easterly/North Easterly bringing colder air across us.

[smich]

It's an outlier! An outlier surely!!!

No wait...it looks much better at T144.....it's not an outlier!

Wait for the ensembles peeps, let's see where the mean lies to deduce what's most likely to happen from this single run.

Give me strength

smich

[Cloud 10]

meteociel.fr - modèle UKMO pour la France, resolution 1.25 degré

I will bank the new 96 and 120 fax charts.:smiliz19:

[Weathizard]

Amazing the reaction one chart gets, it will probably all be back good and proper next reading, over-reaction imo.

[bluearmy]

yea - the tues T120 FAX looks dreadful.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

honestly, some of you should read what you're posting. ecm 12z was bang in line trendwise with its 00z output. if GFS drops the norwegian shortwave diving into the se, it wont shock me. the alternative will be decent anyway.

[cold snap]

I also notice the trend now to push back the intense cold push further in FI

Giving us a cold push but not that cold and then to a potential reload in the realms of fantasy.

Hi matty to be honest im getting sick of looking in to Deep FI

FI yes.Deep FI no.

Hope this does not get pushed back even further.However one run is one run.

[Archie_Lewis]

168hr - thats more like it

BUT, ITS FI

ill go with up to 120hrs, it shows the cold air in place, thats fine by me.

Even looking to 120hrs is risky.

[Lewis]

Lovely Jubbly

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

[Geordiesnow]

Winters over! :smiliz19: I knew that this run would be met with disappointment, however not every single gfs run is going to look the same. It's funny I'm just relieved to see the pattern consistent with sw dropping south out of Scandi so I think it's a good run, as we can see as it progresses the Atlantic thinks its going to make a guest appearance but gets shown the door.

Yep, if you think of it like that, this run is not too bad but i think its more than likely we will get the cold now, just how snowy it will be remains the question.

I think in a way, the really good snowy runs came too early as we know, the output will probably change and it has. even the ECM is not that bad in comparison.

This run does recover somewhat but tbh, i prefer the 12Z GFS and UKMO than this run. I don't want delays to get the cold snowy weather. Lets hope tomorrow mornings output offer somewhat an improvment.

[Bobby]

Another beast.

[PubliusEnigma]

This is much worse than the ECM and there is no way that this could develop into what the ECM goes onto show, just a small change in heights on Monday from what this run shows and there will be no cold spell !

Great, so we've got the GFS with almost no cold spell, the ECM on the fence, and the UKMO still showing cold and snow for the SE. Im backing the UKMO as it was the one that was the most correct back last weekend, if that makes any sense.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Even if the 18Z does come off, it only looks to me like it brings the siberian high westwards. Now I don't know if this is really supported by the background signals but I don't see the atlantic coming back at +120 to be a viable option at this time.

[nick sussex]

But that set-up next Monday is highly flimsy, one slight shift and we would never get to what it shows at T144 and beyond !

Yes I see your point but its the GFS! Theres still enough energy going into the southern arm of the jet, the problem is what Ive always said the GFS is too extreme either way, maybe I'm just so relieved at the sw dropping south out of Scandi as I have a fixation with shortwaves not doing what they're supposed to do!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Great, so we've got the GFS with almost no cold spell, the ECM on the fence, and the UKMO still showing cold and snow for the SE. Im backing the UKMO as it was the one that was the most correct back last weekend, if that makes any sense.

I think that's downplaying the cold and snow somewhat! GFS has a cold spell which starts off with a more flimsy evolution than the other runs, ECM is moderately cold and snowy, UKMO is very cold and snowy.

[Matty M]

All im thinking from the ECM and GFS 18z is that there is a trend to postpone this easterly once more, like we've seen before, but the actually easterly deep into FI and will it ever happen?

Granted we look nailed on to get cold air arriving next Monday but its increasingly looking high pressure dominated and trending towards not

being that cold in more western areas.

Still looks okay in the southeast quadrant of England but even that could slip away if the trend continues.

Nonetheless it is a fantasticly cold outlook, i am just tired of the actual bite of cold never making it into the real timeframe

sub 96hrs, it always gets downgraded and we are constantly looking at the good charts at T144 - 180h or after.

[Snowyowl9]

Nick i know you dont rate GFS

But of late it has not stood up to its name as Pub run With epic charts.

It`s swapped places with the 6z run for epicness.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2521.png

[nick sussex]

Nick did you see ukmo fax? its a belter

Yes but we wouldn't want that to ruin the negative mood in here! :smiliz19: It's a very good fax chart and follows the UKMO raw output, you see this is the difference while many people are worried about the later timeframe I'm concerned about the shortwave dropping south out of Scandi, people need to realize if you don't get A and B out of the way then you don't get to C and D.

I'm quite happy with the evenings output and so should most people be but if people want to hang on every run of the GFS then I have ordered extra supplies of prozac in!

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

In case people need reminding the GFS verification stats in the link don't make happy reading. My advice stick to the ECM and UKMO, you might not get icebergs floating in the Thames but it will be less stressful!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

What is it with people here? As others have said, "It's one Run", the weather will happen whether you are navel gazing or not.

OK, in some respects the 18Z isn't as good, but we're still too far away to see what will really happen. Every time we think FI has moved out, it jumps back at us.

Next week, even on these charts will have 3-5 days of very cold weather

Enjoy what is happening and don't take it personally

Edited February 4, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[smich]

What is it with people here? As others have said, "It's one Run", the weather will happen whether you are navel gazing or not.

OK, in some respects the 18Z isn't as good, but we're still too far away to see what will really happen. Every time we think FI has moved out, it jumps back at us.

Next week, even on these charts will have 3-5 days of very cold weather

Enjoy what is happening and don't take it personally

Good post, but it will fall on deaf ears I'm afraid.

Fax charts looking fantastic - good easterly flow and a little front or two crossing the North Sea....

smich

[J10]

All 3 major models show cold or very cold weather spreading from the east. This is the first day this week, that there as even been a semblance of consistency from the previous days models. Today's charts have been very good for those people in the UK who like to see cold and potentially very snowy weather, as we have seen in previous spells, when there is embedded cold, snow events seem to pop up form nowhere.

Caution is still needed, as perhaps the GFS 18Hz shows a flakiness not there in other evolution, but generally a good days models.

[Snowyowl9]

This is certainly as good a chart you can get in such short timefrrame,showing a good easterly.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn901.png

The rest is pure entertaiment.

[guitarnutter]

I'll settle with this:

[damianslaw]

UKMO Fax Charts for Tuesday look very promising for snow in the east in particular, UKMO has been very good in the past couple of weeks particularly with regard to timing and intensity of fronts and troughs, and unlike ECM and especially GFS has not been prone to major swings on a day to day basis. Ignore the GFS and stick to the ECM and UKMO, GFS seems to pick always go over board in its subtlety, it is never keen on showing a slow transfer from one pattern to the next, it just always goes for the extreme.