Model Output Discussion

[Ben_Cambs]

the ecm looks good aswell t144

ECM at T+168, centre of LP just to the North of Scotland:

[karyo]

so does the ECM

In fact the ECM looks kind of believable atm....

Yes, a much improved ECM 12z and a great relief to see.

At 144 hours the block is a lot further east than in the 0z output.

Delicious at 168 hours!!

Karyo

Edited February 9, 2010 by karyo

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks great ecm low miles East! but 168 chart seems to look 20th December (ish), hope not! but of course FI still yet

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes, a much improved ECM 12z and a great relief to see.

At 144 hours the block is a lot further east than in the 0z output.

Delicious at 168 hours!!

Karyo

i wonder is it possible that low could slide south because geez we could suck some really really cold air round that then the whole country would have the fun.

id also like to add the gem picked up on this around 2 days ago i think maybe yesterday,

which i find intresting.

Edited February 9, 2010 by badboy657

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM at T+192 seems even better than T+168, centre of LP now over Northern England + Southern Scotland on this chart:

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

Edit: I like it how the the 995mb line has the UK encircled within the line!

Edited February 9, 2010 by Snowman0697

[cooling climate]

i wonder is it possible that low could slide south because geez we could suck some really really cold air round that then the whole country would have the fun.

id also like to add the gem picked up on this around 2 days ago i think maybe yesterday,

which i find intresting.

The t192 chart should be a GEM of a ECM run,(sorry couldn't help myself).

Rather surprised by the t192 chart as I thought the trough would have dropped

further south rather than rotate like is shown.

Edited February 9, 2010 by cooling climate

[cold snap]

Nice to see ECM bring back Snow next week.I know( sigh sigh)Its a week away again.

But remember this at least it keeps the intrest going.

Winter not over yet.

ECM.GFS.UKMO refuse to drop cold charts atm

[nick sussex]

Close but no cigar with the ECM, the pattern needs to be a few hundred miles further east so that when the two lows phase at 192hrs the UK is on the cold side of the trough. Still better than the ECM 00hrs run, the reverse zonal winds could be hindering here rather than helping.The problem here is that the cold air will become modified whilst that low is sat over the UK, similar to the time before Xmas when those snow showers slowly turned to rain and sleet especially towards southern areas. It's a step in the right direction but we still need the pattern shifted much further east.

Edited February 9, 2010 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

I think even at this range it's safe to say next week will be much more unsettled and at least rather cold and probably very cold if the models can keep the trend eastwards although not too far, don't want any topplers.

[TEITS]

I bet TEITS has fainted looking at the ECM 12z.

Its not a bad run although difficult to work out what would occur on the ground. The upper temps would be around -5/-6C I guess.

Ideally shove that LP to Germany and then we have bitterly cold NE,lys. The main thrust of cold remains on the N/W flank of the LP.

I hope this E trend continues.

Just seen your post Nick, glad we're singing from the same hymn sheet.

Edited February 9, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[bluearmy]

trend is still sw direction of movement though, even on this better run. as bb posts above, some very cold air around the back of this trough and would like to hear GP's thoughts on whether we can hope to see this drift any further southeast or whether this x model agreement is about right, given other current indicators.

[Iceberg]

ECM T192Z Thicknesses of around 519 to 525 across the country, 850's at -4 to -7 so definately a snow chart even for the south.

[remymartin]

As expected ECM concurs with GFS and METO at 144Z shifting the LP 500 miles eastwards, more snow and cold for us !

Any bets it will keep moving east untill it misses us and goes down the north sea.

[MR EXTREMES]

The t192 chart should be a GEM of a ECM run,(sorry couldn't help myself).

lol cant dissagree with that from thease charts would you you think that the cold enriched would provide southern england with a chance?

but it does seem to be heading sw direction which is intresting aswell.

lol cant dissagree with that from thease charts would you you think that the cold enriched would provide southern england with a chance?

but it does seem to be heading sw direction which is intresting aswell.

its ok i will answer my own question lol no :lol:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM T192Z Thicknesses of around 519 to 525 across the country, 850's at -4 to -7 so definately a snow chart even for the south.

I never think -4/-5 uppers ever cold enough for snow for here, too low, feel I need -10 uppers or its rain

[Mark Bayley]

Close but no cigar with the ECM, the pattern needs to be a few hundred miles further east so that when the two lows phase at 192hrs the UK is on the cold side of the trough. Still better than the ECM 00hrs run, the reverse zonal winds could be hindering here rather than helping.

Yes, further east would be better. The coldest air never makes it with 850hpa temps around -4c, -5c and a few -6c. Not bad i suppose. Snow to high ground would be likely, perhaps a touch marginal for lower ground. An improvement from the 0z though

Edited February 9, 2010 by mark bayley

[yamkin]

I never think -4/-5 uppers ever cold enough for snow for here, too low, feel I need -10 uppers or its rain

2nd Feb 2009 uppers were -4/-5c here and we had loads of snow

[TEITS]

I never think -4/-5 uppers ever cold enough for snow for here, too low, feel I need -10 uppers or its rain

Not always. The feb 5th 2009 which gave 8 inches occured when upper temps were -4C. Even the timing of the precip and intensity can make a difference between heavy rain or heavy snow.

A good start from the ECM but we do need the pattern further E. Also as someone already said ideally the LP to move SE rather than SW. Thankfully plenty of time yet for this to change more favourably.

[Iceberg]

In the northerly with heavy precip the evapo cooling with lower 950s and the generally lower thicknesses you get with a northerly will be fine.

At the end of the day at this range the thickness is the best we have.

[nick sussex]

Its not a bad run although difficult to work out what would occur on the ground. The upper temps would be around -5/-6C I guess.

Ideally shove that LP to Germany and then we have bitterly cold NE,lys. The main thrust of cold remains on the N/W flank of the LP.

I hope this E trend continues.

Just seen your post Nick, glad we're singing from the same hymn sheet.

Yes its amazing just how many times we see this, strong high with the trough heading sw not south. Unless the pattern can back so far west that a Scandi high forms but to be honest if I mention the words easterly in here I maybe chased out of town!

[bluearmy]

Close but no cigar with the ECM, the pattern needs to be a few hundred miles further east so that when the two lows phase at 192hrs the UK is on the cold side of the trough. Still better than the ECM 00hrs run, the reverse zonal winds could be hindering here rather than helping.The problem here is that the cold air will become modified whilst that low is sat over the UK, similar to the time before Xmas when those snow showers slowly turned to rain and sleet especially towards southern areas. It's a step in the right direction but we still need the pattern shifted much further east.

looks slightly better than before xmas nick with uppers slightly lower and sst's also. re the phasing of the lows (remember the fun the models had with this in december?), the atlantic is further south so the angle of attack looks better for the southern half of the uk. although i doubt this will verify as shown, i believe it is a very snowy run in fi.

[cooling climate]

ECM T192Z Thicknesses of around 519 to 525 across the country, 850's at -4 to -7 so definately a snow chart even for the south.

Thats what I thought. I was getting confused with one or two posts. This evolution could easily

drift another two to four hundred miles east and with the Arctic high coming a bit further south

as well equals a very cold and wintry week ahead for the whole of the UK.

The trend is definitely east so I would be very surprised to see anything other on future runs.

[Snowyowl9]

Close but no cigar with the ECM, the pattern needs to be a few hundred miles further east so that when the two lows phase at 192hrs the UK is on the cold side of the trough. Still better than the ECM 00hrs run, the reverse zonal winds could be hindering here rather than helping.The problem here is that the cold air will become modified whilst that low is sat over the UK, similar to the time before Xmas when those snow showers slowly turned to rain and sleet especially towards southern areas. It's a step in the right direction but we still need the pattern shifted much further east.

I think ECM would prove very interesting indeed low thickness lows pulling south over us giving E/SE-ly all wind directions,perhaps get it a touch further east maybe,not after seeing the T240 chart.

As for this N/NE-ly I can see why temps are higher today upper air up to -5c.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs122.gif

[Ben_Cambs]

Well ECM finishes off with a low in the Channel. Good output from ECM this evening and much better than the 0z. The models are trending the right way with the pattern trending East. And theres plenty of time for that to happen. It will be interesting what the other models show tonight, such as JMA and then later on GFS 18z.

[nick sussex]

looks slightly better than before xmas nick with uppers slightly lower and sst's also. re the phasing of the lows (remember the fun the models had with this in december?), the atlantic is further south so the angle of attack looks better for the southern half of the uk. although i doubt this will verify as shown, i believe it is a very snowy run in fi.

If it was mid January and not heading into towards the end of February then I'd be happier with tonights ECM as there could be alot more surface cold developing.

For northern areas I'd say its still a decent run, for the south more marginal, it would be a shame to see all that very cold air spilling into the Atlantic.