Model Output Discussion

[cheeky_monkey]

still the best shot of a decent snow event looks a good week away..things looking slightly better in terms of the easterly flow back end of this week..but again the main energy is too far south with this filling as time goes on..then look to the north as the flood gates open and then we see the best chance of some fun and games..before things switch back to mild far out in FI

[DEYS(Kent)]

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Latest FAXES

[FENDER.]

And yet it has hardly even started?

Deary me.

And thats the problem, it doesnt look like its ever going to start

[Iceberg]

It was never really meant to start for the West Midlands yet !. The western half of the country is really waiting for a trough or other such feature to develop and bring something a bit more interesting and it's only day 2 of the cold spell so far.

Exciting ENS trend again, Taking Dorset as it's my backyard and it will be the first to get hit by the SW mild breakdown, the ENS did show 10-12 members taking 850's above -5 come the 19/20th of Feb, this is now down to 2 members, with a few more on the 21st but alot keeping the 850's going at -5 to -6.

Conservatively there is still at least another 10 days to go and there is the distinct possibility of it going on a few more days beyond that.

The models deserve alot of praise IMO (after the flip flopping of early last week) they have been very stable with the synoptic trend, a few minor changes but really very good and the retrogression to GH is showing up in all the models today.

For this weekend the chance of snow for the south is very real and beyond this for the north and the whole.

country.

A better ECM today is pulls things more eastwards, which is more inline with the ECM EPS, GFS ENS and GFS OPS.

So everything still looking very good.

[Frosty.]

According to the latest 00z models, the risk of significant snow later this week is becoming confined to kent although a few wintry flurries cannot be ruled out in some other eastern coastal counties. Most of britain looks fine with sunny spells and patchy cloud with overnight frosts and probably some fog as winds fall light. From the models I have seen this morning, there is some interesting changes around the T+120 to T+144 hour range as we look to the north west, our resident anticyclone looks like shifting towards greenland and low pressure will be pushing south from arctic regions which could bring a very wintry spell to most of the uk (especially the north) during next week, the only niggle I have is that the ecm 00z has everything further west but the gfs 00z has things further east which I think is better.

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest 00z models, the risk of significant snow later this week is becoming confined to kent although a few wintry flurries cannot be ruled out in some other eastern coastal counties. Most of britain looks fine with sunny spells and patchy cloud with overnight frosts and probably some fog as winds fall light. From the models I have seen this morning, there is some interesting changes around the T+120 to T+144 hour range as we look to the north west, our resident anticyclone looks like shifting towards greenland and low pressure will be pushing south from arctic regions which could bring a very wintry spell to most of the uk (especially the north) during next week, the only niggle I have is that the ecm 00z has everything further west but the gfs 00z has things further east which I think is better.

Wow great summery Frosty! Very impressive.

[Typhoon John]

I agree with this assessment although I was going to say the ECM had the high further South and East! Although admittedly I only briefly looked at the 12z last night.

I think we'll start to see the high have more influence over the UK once it moves towards Greenland. We've seen this already with the current positioning on the high which was originally predicted to be further North West, allowing a colder/snowier North Easterly flow.

All looking good this morning I think.

Edited February 9, 2010 by fozi999

[Bristawl Si]

I agree with this assessment although I was going to say the ECM had the high further South and East! Although admittedly I only briefly looked at the 12z last night.

I think we'll start to see the high have more influence over the UK once it moves towards Greenland. We've seen this already with the current positioning on the high which was originally predicted to be further North West, allowing a colder/snowier North Easterly flow.

All looking good this morning I think.

Erm, isn't the high already having an influence - like keeping the vast majority of the UK dry and cold and this looks to continue for a few days yet. The latest faxes posted earlier by another poster shows the real 'action over Germany - if that high could move a little more north west it would allow the snowier weather to reach more of sourthern britain - at the mo only Kent and a few other favoured areas in the S.E. seem to be in for a little snow. Quite disappointing after what the models were showing a few days ago.

[MR EXTREMES]

It was never really meant to start for the West Midlands yet !. The western half of the country is really waiting for a trough or other such feature to develop and bring something a bit more interesting and it's only day 2 of the cold spell so far.

Exciting ENS trend again, Taking Dorset as it's my backyard and it will be the first to get hit by the SW mild breakdown, the ENS did show 10-12 members taking 850's above -5 come the 19/20th of Feb, this is now down to 2 members, with a few more on the 21st but alot keeping the 850's going at -5 to -6.

Conservatively there is still at least another 10 days to go and there is the distinct possibility of it going on a few more days beyond that.

The models deserve alot of praise IMO (after the flip flopping of early last week) they have been very stable with the synoptic trend, a few minor changes but really very good and the retrogression to GH is showing up in all the models today.

For this weekend the chance of snow for the south is very real and beyond this for the north and the whole.

country.

A better ECM today is pulls things more eastwards, which is more inline with the ECM EPS, GFS ENS and GFS OPS.

So everything still looking very good.

im back this morning with a little smile on my face and i tell you why,

because the same reasons as you iceberg,

reading the ENS trend looks good to me and using my backyard or the isle of white as a bench mark.

same here very good indeed only at the very end do they rise even then like you said its not 100% support and the rest well is just fantastic.

[Typhoon John]

Erm, isn't the high already having an influence - like keeping the vast majority of the UK dry and cold and this looks to continue for a few days yet. The latest faxes posted earlier by another poster shows the real 'action over Germany - if that high could move a little more north west it would allow the snowier weather to reach more of sourthern britain - at the mo only Kent and a few other favoured areas in the S.E. seem to be in for a little snow. Quite disappointing after what the models were showing a few days ago.

You've misread my post, I agree with you.

Edited February 9, 2010 by fozi999

[Weather-history]

According to the latest 00z models, the risk of significant snow later this week is becoming confined to kent although a few wintry flurries cannot be ruled out in some other eastern coastal counties. Most of britain looks fine with sunny spells and patchy cloud with overnight frosts and probably some fog as winds fall light. From the models I have seen this morning, there is some interesting changes around the T+120 to T+144 hour range as we look to the north west, our resident anticyclone looks like shifting towards greenland and low pressure will be pushing south from arctic regions which could bring a very wintry spell to most of the uk (especially the north) during next week, the only niggle I have is that the ecm 00z has everything further west but the gfs 00z has things further east which I think is better.

It is a bit similiar to the the pre-Christmas cold spell, high pressure retrogressing to Greenland with a low developing and heading southwards. As I said before, this winter has been to look north and not east for the really snowy spells. The most widespread snowfall of this winter for the UK thus far came from the north. The easterlies have been generally poor or shortlived.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Frosty.]

Wow great summery Frosty! Very impressive.

Thanks OP,

I feel a lot more optimistic about wintry weather hitting the uk during next week with the general evolution shown on the 00z runs, and as Mr_Data mentioned, the north has produced the best cold spells so far this winter and as we are now seeing, the E'ly has downgraded again with only the extreme southeastern corner of england catching some disruptive snow later this week although actually, london might have a slight covering tomorrow morning as will some other eastern counties.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well,

Other than rain/sleet/hail/mixture of wet snow showers, dry weather for many, and frosts at night it's going to be a dissapointing cold spell.

The models are not brilliant this morning, the evolution on the GFS 00z is certainly a messy once.

We have had a brilliant winter this year, and i don't think next years will replicate it.

Enjoy it whilst you can folks, winter is certainly coming to an end.

I wonder what the 06z shows.

nothing is showing its over this morning.

i wonder what charts your looking at the ENS this morning show the bigger picture using isle of white as the bench mark for atleast 6 days or more with 850s being -5 or below,

theres good charts thrown in this morning theres a good chance the models will trend towards something exciting,

this spell also is fairly similar to the december january shift towards cold.

so by far its not over yet.

i woke this morning and said im looking to be optimistic and after seeing the fax and ens charts ect im happy with a building trend.

[cooling climate]

Have to say im becoming increasingly fasinated by the model output for next week. I know this is a long way away but something is brewing in the output I feel.

Take a look at the ECM ensembles.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...E_06260_NWT.png

In recent days the trend in the extended ensembles has been a warm up with very few cold runs. However note on the 12Z a few very cold runs are beginning to appear. This to me indicates a LP bringing SW,lys isn't so certain now.

I am also spotting a similair trend in the GEFS mean.

http://91.121.94.83/...21-1-240.png?18

http://91.121.94.83/...21-1-300.png?18

Manchester ensembles show the mean no higher than -5C but far more cold runs appearing.

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

Aberdeen is -7C.

http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png

Obviously I cannot put any details into this because im only looking at the mean. However I said this morning the trend looks better in the GEFS ensembles and thats continued on the 18Z. What im saying is im not convinced next week will only bring snow to N Britain and assume a mild SW,ly afterwards is a cert.

A very interesting week ahead I feel.

I think there is every reason to be very optimistic as regards the weather for next week.

For the rest of this week it does look like the core of the cold and wintry weather will be

located over southern England, east Anglia and the southeast, although a trend for the

high to be slightly further north and west perhaps.

As for next week when looking at the northern hemisphere charts and whats going on

in the stratosphere a reasonably case could be made for everything to shift further east

with the vortex dropping down into Europe with us on the western edge and blocking to the

north and over the top of the vortex.

A north to northeasterly airflow with sub -10 850's and very wintry weather to follow.

[SussexmarkyMark]

Well to me the 00z charts are looking slightly better for cold and snow over a larger part of England later this week. The FAX chart is showing troughs and the deepest cold air on the GFS is shown to be over a larger area of England than on yesterdays charts.

Edited February 9, 2010 by SussexmarkyMark

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It looks like the ECM 00z has shifted the HP slightly north again and a more pronounced NE'ly feed for the SE. I tell you what it feels perishingly cold this morning outside down here...maybe I'm coming down with a cold! Or it is cold! As per the whole winter, T96/120 for detail in the models, the slight shift northwards of ECM shows why. In fact the GFS has shown a shift north too...the NE'ly feed and then the easterly are stronger and more robust as a result....over to you Lewis?

BFTP

Edited February 9, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Lewis]

Yep even the GFS has the HP a little further North, lets hope this is a new trend and continues with it.

Would be nice to get some snowfall this week, as i feel if not, it may be the last chance until next winter.

Precipitation charts looking very good too. It's been raining here, and whats very weird, is although the temp is 1.5c, the dew is 1.3, and its snowing on the backend very heavily, for saying the 0c isotherm is at 500m, in heavier precip it will drop slightly but with a high dew point it's surpising, but also a good sign imho.

lewis

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Yep even the GFS has the HP a little further North, lets hope this is a new trend and continues with it.

Would be nice to get some snowfall this week, as i feel if not, it may be the last chance until next winter.

Precipitation charts looking very good too. It's been raining here, and whats very weird, is although the temp is 1.5c, the dew is 1.3, and its snowing on the backend very heavily, for saying the 0c isotherm is at 500m, in heavier precip it will drop slightly but with a high dew point it's surpising, but also a good sign imho.

lewis

Im glad you are happier today and yes its looking a little better lets see what the next run brings, like you said it could be the trend and its been posted on here dozens of times by other members that things could and most probably look more favourable. Lets be positive today unless there is a major setback.

[Airedalejoe]

I think there is every reason to be very optimistic as regards the weather for next week.

For the rest of this week it does look like the core of the cold and wintry weather will be

located over southern England, east Anglia and the southeast, although a trend for the

high to be slightly further north and west perhaps.

As for next week when looking at the northern hemisphere charts and whats going on

in the stratosphere a reasonably case could be made for everything to shift further east

with the vortex dropping down into Europe with us on the western edge and blocking to the

north and over the top of the vortex.

A north to northeasterly airflow with sub -10 850's and very wintry weather to follow.

I live in the far Northeast of England and it's snowing here! Snowline looks to be approx 130mts asl where there's quite a thick fresh covering. One look at the radar from last night up till the current time tells you where the action is taking place. I'm repeating myself but regardless of pressure being high, as long as we have the drift off the North sea then chance's of showers/longer spells of rain/snow are good.

Long way off but looking good for next week also. The winter cold here has been long and persistant and though I'll take all the snow we're sent I'm also looking forward to those first warm ray's of sun on my skin!!

[karyo]

I am not so keen on the 0z ECM for next week! Once again it projects that we'll miss the main cold plunge as everything is too far west. It should be cold enough for snow for a time, but the cold air will soon mix out. The UKMO at 144 hours is very similar to the ECM, so that's not good. We need to see adjustments eastwards!

Karyo

Edited February 9, 2010 by karyo

[Lewis]

Oh my god, after all that from me yesterday about the trend of the HP being way too far South, and it continuing to do so. It's pushed North again!! and I and other people are in the firing line now.

I cant believe it, i look like an idiot now. Maybe i need to stop been so hasty and learn how to read the blooming models better. I really am shocked, it's proved me so blooming wrong lol, 12 runs south 2 runs North. :|

Edited February 9, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[TEITS]

Not sure about next week and personally think it's way too early to say anything specific even on next weekend just yet. Saying that, I reckon the snow at the end of the week looks like it may be disruptive a lot further west than just Kent which the Met Office was still focusing on this morning from a study of the charts.

At the moment cold and unsettled sums up next week with LP being centred over the UK. As upper temps will remain no lower than -5C then bands of snow could well circulate around the LP system with the risk of snow obviously being further N but not exclusively. However worth mentioning that on the Feb 5th 2009 I recieved 8 inches of snow when upper temps were -4C!

Just a quick word about some of the comments saying the E,lys have been disappointing and the best snow events have come from the N. Im surprised some are making such sweeping statements like this. This all depends on your location because for me my best snowfall has come from the E and this also applies for my broher in Northumberland who has seen alot of snow from convection. Just remember your snowfalls from the N might not have occured if the intial cold from the E hadn't moved W. For example like I say Feb 5 2009 gave me 8 inches of snow from the S but it was the intial blast from the E that allowed this to fall as snow.

Oh my god, after all that from me yesterday about the trend of the HP being way too far South, and it continuing to do so. It's pushed North again!! and I and other people are in the firing line now.

I cant believe it, i look like an idiot now. Maybe i need to stop been so hasty and learn how to read the blooming models better. I really am shocked, it's proved me so blooming wrong lol, 12 runs south 2 runs North. :|

I wouldn't be too hard on yourself. The uncertain nature of our weather and the computer models is what makes it entertaining. It would be pretty boring if they were always spot on.

Edited February 9, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Lewis]

Sinks south quickly with the eastrly feed mainly for EA/SE, although in the short term it's a huge upgrade, can it continue ?

Edited February 9, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Climate Man]

Sinks south quickly with the eastrly feed mainly for EA/SE, although in the short term it's a huge upgrade, can it continue ?

Hi, I think the issue is that you tend to look at every little change and are eager to jump in and comment. Much better to relax, watch, look for trends and then to make considered comments. Much better for your blood pressure.

[peterf]

Oh my god, after all that from me yesterday about the trend of the HP being way too far South, and it continuing to do so. It's pushed North again!! and I and other people are in the firing line now.

I cant believe it, i look like an idiot now. Maybe i need to stop been so hasty and learn how to read the blooming models better. I really am shocked, it's proved me so blooming wrong lol, 12 runs south 2 runs North. :|

i had to laugh SFL.patience is a virtue lol,at least your not afraid to admit when youl've jumped the gun a bit.