Model Output Discussion

[Bristawl Si]

Hi Lewis

The 12 z is much better for you. The further east as it retrogrades the better. I think you'll fair quite well NEXT week.

BFTP

The models appear to have developed the trend in the last 24 hours to strengthen that pesky high; if it gets 'settled' over the UK it won't be going anywhere fast.

[MR EXTREMES]

The models appear to have developed the trend in the last 24 hours to strengthen that pesky high; if it gets 'settled' over the UK it won't be going anywhere fast.

ecm 144 hr dont look good either not much going on at all.

[TEITS]

The models appear to have developed the trend in the last 24 hours to strengthen that pesky high; if it gets 'settled' over the UK it won't be going anywhere fast.

Pretty good agreement of a block developing over Greenland at +144.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Tasty at +168.

Edited February 8, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Duane S.]

but ive made my mind up brief 5 or 6 day cold spell for most of england,

and colder air holding on in perhapes northern england and scotland,things could change but unlikely now.

Could you explain WHY you think the charts are wrong or is it just a 'hunch' that by Saturday afternoon, Sunday afternoon at the latest all of England bar 'perhaps Northern England and Scotland' will not be in the cold spell any longer? Just trying to distinquish between your pessimism and genuine reasoning behind it that's all.

[D KARLSON]

Hi Lewis

The 12 z is much better for you. The further east as it retrogrades the better. I think you'll fair quite well NEXT week.

BFTP

Nothing much to add here the basic pattern of synoptics is cold or rather cold with perhaps some milder incursions at times for southern anf eastern areas "coastal" and always the possibility that we remain in this cold pattern through till march.

as for the here and now still good snow prospects for eastern areas and Kent in particular as we see the cusp of the low sitting over the Med jsut clips the south east, that said the real snow showers have been set back till wednesday as the associated cold pool over europe finally wobbles its way to our shores

[Eugene]

I really like ECM 12Z, fantastic chart for a severe frost with freezing fog, great to wake up to a white landscape

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

Edited February 8, 2010 by Eugene

[chionomaniac]

Pretty good agreement of a block developing over Greenland at +144.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Tasty at +168.

Looking at that chart one would prefer a straighter northerly. I can't believe how south the jet stream is. The undercutting is not leading to a Channel low but a Gibraltar low! I wonder where 192 is heading.

Edited February 8, 2010 by chionomaniac

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks relatively mild to me on the 192 chart, need the low miles further east

[MR EXTREMES]

Could you explain WHY you think the charts are wrong or is it just a 'hunch' that by Saturday afternoon, Sunday afternoon at the latest all of England bar 'perhaps Northern England and Scotland' will not be in the cold spell any longer? Just trying to distinquish between your pessimism and genuine reasoning behind it that's all.

no i dont think there wrong i just think there not that good for what some might be seeking.

although saying that i see eyes post,

and i see gh which is a start but its in fi and not really a good idear to ramp it up as much as i would like.

but it could be another direction the models may move towards,

what i do like about the ecm 168 is gh with low pressure holding it in place,although the rest of the chart looks rather boring if your looking for snowy conditions.

fax is intresting for mid week onwards with possible heavier snow for eastern areas,

and id like to add i dont think mild is the trend either,

just not that cold beyond 5 to 7 days for some of england,

with northern england and scotland getting a chunk of the lower temps and perhapes better snow events aswell:drinks:.

Edited February 8, 2010 by badboy657

[Tristrame]

Tasty at +168.

Ok I will rephrase.

I don't think that looks tasty because it's indicative of yet another trend to put anything half decent in Ecm,one of the better models further out.

If something appears half right to set up a proper islands wide unstable Easterly or northeasterly it should be getting closer, not staying out in never never land.

[Snowyowl9]

Pretty good agreement of a block developing over Greenland at +144.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Tasty at +168.

I can`t remember the last time we saw a greenland high in the middle of february,1986 did but has there been any since,only in late feb 2005/06 March 2006,april 2008.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Edited February 8, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[nick sussex]

Looking at that chart one would prefer a straighter northerly. I can't believe how south the jet stream is. The undercutting is not leading to a Channel low but a Gibraltar low! I wonder where 192 is heading.

Evening Chiono

Is it possible the reverse zonal winds together with the southern tracking jet just shift the Siberian block back again, looking at that rather bizarre looking 168 and 192hrs ECM output!

Edited February 8, 2010 by nick sussex

[TEITS]

Ok I will rephrase.

I don't think that looks tasty because it's indicative of yet another trend to put anything half decent in Ecm,one of the better models further out.

If something appears half right to set up a proper islands wide unstable Easterly or northeasterly it should be getting closer, not staying out in never never land.

The trend from the UKMO/ECM with regards to the Greenland HP appeared at +240 and now we're seeing this at +144/+168. So without being rude im not sure what your on about.

Always been 3 phases to this cold spell. The phase 3 i.e Greenland HP was always suggested for next week.

[Mark Bayley]

looks relatively mild to me on the 192 chart, need the low miles further east

Not really

Turning milder in the South west on the T216 chart. Remains cold for the rest of the UK. Would prefer the GFS though with the low further East

T192

T216

[PubliusEnigma]

Pretty good agreement of a block developing over Greenland at +144.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Tasty at +168.

Is it me or is that HP expanding over more and more of the UK, effectivley edging snow precip and colder

850's further away to the s east. We need a comparision to compare if its worse than the 00z.

[chionomaniac]

Evening Chiono

Is it possible the reverse zonal winds together with the southern tracking jet just shift the Siberian block back again, looking at that rather bizarre looking 168 and 192hrs ECM output!

Evening Nick. It is too difficult to say at that range though I suspect that the downwelling is responsible for these bizarre looking charts. It reminds me of similar set up seen after the easterly last Feb around 5th Feb I believe but without the Greenland blocking.

[PubliusEnigma]

Evening Chiono

Is it possible the reverse zonal winds together with the southern tracking jet just shift the Siberian block back again, looking at that rather bizarre looking 168 and 192hrs ECM output!

Its certainly a wierd looking charts the reverse zonal winds are in dire danger of bringing

the milder air out to the east over east germany and poland west over us. We really dont want

to displace our nice blue cold pool with something somewhat milder from the east !? agreed nick ?

[Mark Bayley]

Is it me or is that HP expanding over more and more of the UK, effectivley edging snow precip and colder

850's further away to the s east. We need a comparision to compare if its worse than the 00z.

You can view the 0z on net weather data centre and the 850hpas here

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/ecmwf/archiv/NSea/thgt850/2010020812/seethumb/ch/b1b094b7d4.html

[January Snowstorm]

It must be said that we have backtracked hugely on where we were last night

Dry now all week, with even frost debateable as plenty cloud persist right now

As for the weekend and beyond, messy describes it best & with the Greeny high progged further and further West it looks average

Just goes to show FI is just that!

[Jayces]

Not really

Turning milder in the South west on the T216 chart.

Sorry if I am being stupid here but the way I am reading those colours and the numbers on them indicate that the SW will still have temperatures of 0 or lower which although milder than -10 is not really mild as far temperature is concerned.

If I am right then the maybe people should say it's turning less cold.

[Tristrame]

The trend from the UKMO/ECM with regards to the Greenland HP appeared at +240 and now we're seeing this at +144/+168. So without being rude im not sure what your on about.

Always been 3 phases to this cold spell. The phase 3 i.e Greenland HP was always suggested for next week.

Well I wasn't specifically talking about the greenie high should it appear,I was talking about decent cold islands wide always being at least a week away.

Thats a trend I don't like

[Lewis]

Is it me or is that HP expanding over more and more of the UK, effectivley edging snow precip and colder

850's further away to the s east. We need a comparision to compare if its worse than the 00z.

It's not just you mate, i spotted it earlier. It's the obvious sign, just a lot of people don't agree. I reckon come the 18z it will be even further South.

I hope not though.

[PubliusEnigma]

The trend from the UKMO/ECM with regards to the Greenland HP appeared at +240 and now we're seeing this at +144/+168. So without being rude im not sure what your on about.

Always been 3 phases to this cold spell. The phase 3 i.e Greenland HP was always suggested for next week.

Well I guess there could be a school of thought that if phase 1 and 2 dont materialise Dave, then perhaps you should

rename phase 3 to..perhaps phase 1 ;o). Some could argue that today could indeed be the coldest day of the week in the E and SE based on the 12z ECM.

[Harsh Climate]

Away from Kent NOTHING HAS CHANGED, so why are people so downbeat?? Kent Could get some heavy snow thu/fri but away from there light sleet snow showers will be the order of the day if your lucky....

Saturday onwards is still up for grabs, we may get an even colder pool of air move in from the north east, with a higher risk of snow.

[nick sussex]

It's a very difficult set-up for the models, the ECM at T192 would see milder air being pulled up ahead of the depression especially for the SE - which is why Nick Sussex was very much against this evolution earlier.

However the jet is very displaced and I honestly don't what it will through up at T216/240 given the blocking to the North. Not worth getting too concerned at this range as we have seen the models through up these charts before - notably for the cold spell in Feb last year - and it didn't materialise then.

The rest of the week looks pretty benign for most, so I say bring on some action !

The ECM from 168hrs looks very strange to me, normally once that negative western NAO sets up you'd expect to see low pressure stuck to the nw not sinking again, perhaps that trough in the eastern USA is doing the UK a favour by stopping the high from retrogressing further west.

Also it becomes more complicated, as the low heads south a feed of se'rlies come in from the continent towards the UK, how much cold air will be left over Europe at that stage?

The ECM this evening looks a bit of a mess to me past 168hrs.