Model Output Discussion

[azores92]

I disagree - for Scotland, Ireland, Northern England and Wales, higher ground elsewhere a potential snow event there...850 temps -5C or lower pretty much everywhere. Thicknesses are not too bad either.

Of course things will change but it's an interesting setup coming IMO.

doubt it, i would have thought the hills of northern ireland and scotland would be favoured for accumulations, elsewhere a temporary covering at best.

[swfc]

ECM up to t144 (which was this mornings t156 ) is definitely further east along with the

Arctic high.

The ECM was the most aggressive model with regards to the retrogression and westerly

-NAO so very good signs.

The potential in the t168 is awesome.

Well if so its gone by 192 hrs sadly

[MR EXTREMES]

ECM up to t144 (which was this mornings t156 ) is definitely further east along with the

Arctic high.

The ECM was the most aggressive model with regards to the retrogression and westerly

-NAO so very good signs.

The potential in the t168 is awesome.

i absolutely dont dissagree with you here there is a eastward shift happening although very minor pressure over greenland is also looking better and a not so neg nao west.

so the wait goes on.

[mcweather]

The thing to be borne in mind here is that what both the GFS and ECM are trying to model here is an extremely unusual set up

namely a relatively deep winter low tracking in a generally southerly direction across the uk. The operational run particularly on the ECM is just one of 50 ensemble scenarios that it will put out. No doubt some of them ( which we dont get to see )will be extremely snowy indeed. So plenty to play for next week.

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm t192 as cc has mentioned this could well build into something good although its so far out id forget it for now.

we need a little less retrogresstion from the high over greenland this could happen.

Edited February 10, 2010 by badboy657

[The PIT]

But what the evening forecast says is not related to the model output seven days away surely ?

But the low is moving in then and bringing less cold air with it with rain forecast for Scotland. Anyway the ECM sinks the low away nicely in deep FI to the SE.

[TEITS]

doubt it, i would have thought the hills of northern ireland and scotland would be favoured for accumulations, elsewhere a temporary covering at best.

Yes I would agree with that.

The trouble with marginal situations is you also rely on abit of luck i.e precip arriving at night, intensity of precip turning rain to snow.

My main gripe with all the model output is the LP is suggested to travel in the opposite direction that I would ideally like. The colder temps remain on the N/W flank of the LP and because its suggested to track SSW we miss out. Ideally I want this to track SE into the Med but that would take a monumental shift in the model output!

[cooling climate]

When I say the potential of the t168 chart is great I do not for one second believe

that the low pressure will be anywhere near where the ECM shows it at this time

frame.

One good way to look at it is, we are only taking t144, to 168 so if the eastward

shift continues over say the next two or three days we would then be only 72 hours

or so away from what could be a very memorable week to come.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes I would agree with that.

The trouble with marginal situations is you also rely on abit of luck i.e precip arriving at night, intensity of precip turning rain to snow.

My main gripe with all the model output is the LP is suggested to travel in the opposite direction that I would ideally like. The colder temps remain on the N/W flank of the LP and because its suggested to track SSW we miss out. Ideally I want this to track SE into the Med but that would take a monumental shift in the model output!

but dont you think this ia already happen,

but on such a small scale.

it was futher west yesterday,

the gfs has it futher east than the ecm but both have shift it east gfs more than the ukmo and ecm.

if you get what i mean .

its certainly a cliffhanger but not very exciting even for the north although many have pointed out detail can change in dramatic way 24 hours before.

im going to put my neck on the ling i think there will be futher shifts eastwards with it running down the northsea into germany maybe northern france.

its t240 ecm but its a nice looking chart

Edited February 10, 2010 by badboy657

[Eugene]

The thing to be borne in mind here is that what both the GFS and ECM are trying to model here is an extremely unusual set up

namely a relatively deep winter low tracking in a generally southerly direction across the uk. The operational run particularly on the ECM is just one of 50 ensemble scenarios that it will put out. No doubt some of them ( which we dont get to see )will be extremely snowy indeed. So plenty to play for next week.

Yes i completely agree, i am amazed at some of the downbeat posts tonight given the excellent synoptics and potential for snowfall next week

God help us when we get a winter dominated by HP over france and a strong atlantic jet.

[The Eagle]

I don't know whether people are ignoring clear potential that is showing up on the ECM consistently.

Those in Southern England might think a Southerly not so good but the 850 temps tell a different story at 144hrs and 168hrs. Yes, it is not good for Southern England toward the coast but think M4 corridor northward and a definate snow potential. Memorable snow events are always marginal.

It's a bit acedemic at this stage it is too far out but thoose charts do have potential.

Edited February 10, 2010 by The Eagle

[remymartin]

How good is the gme compared to the other models is it canon fodder.

[January Snowstorm]

I disagree - for Scotland, Ireland, Northern England and Wales, higher ground elsewhere a potential snow event there...850 temps -5C or lower pretty much everywhere. Thicknesses are not too bad either.

Of course things will change but it's an interesting setup coming IMO.

Cold rain with mountain snow is what the ECM and ukmo show darkman

An obvious trend of things being too far West and for the low to fill over us.

Becoming slightly milder with each passing day next week with everything too far marginal

Remember -5 850's is the MINIMUM required when looking North.

Thickness's nothing special either

[ChartViewer]

When I say the potential of the t168 chart is great I do not for one second believe

that the low pressure will be anywhere near where the ECM shows it at this time

frame.

One good way to look at it is, we are only taking t144, to 168 so if the eastward

shift continues over say the next two or three days we would then be only 72 hours

or so away from what could be a very memorable week to come.

Didnt we have certain scenarios in 2005, 06 etc where the Models had projected everything too far

West and at T54 downwards we saw things shift East and all out Cold disapear into The Med!!!

Maybe Models will start shifting things East over the weekend?

Regards

CV

Edited February 10, 2010 by ChartViewer

[Geordiesnow]

I'm actually encouraged by this evening's ECM output. We keep getting telt time and time again how its not the details in the output but the trends and in some ways, the models have trended that the westwards retrogression into Greenland is not as quick as it was once was thus theres a chance of the trigger low being further eastwards which means slightly colder air. This evening's ECM is further eastwards than it was on this morning's run so i would of thought it is a colder and for some snowier run than it was this morning. The GFS run shows that the low can get east of the british isles if everything falls into place. The UKMO shows that the low can still be too far West but i still think snow is likely especially for Western Scotland and Ireland but its more marginal than the GFS for example.

The current outlook is quite exciting and it could easily turn out to be quite snowy for some but on the other hand, it could easily end up cold and wet.

Remember excitement was building for a cold easterly to hit us now because the GFS and UKMO agreed on it at 120 and 144 hours - it shows that even if you got agreement nothing is guranteed. So i still expect further changes to the current output, whether or not it will favour for cold and snow remains uncertain though.

[kent]

I don't know whether people are ignoring clear potential that is showing up on the ECM consistently.

Those in Southern England might think a Southerly not so good but the 850 temps tell a different story at 144hrs and 168hrs. Yes, it is not good for Southern England toward the coast but think M4 corridor northward and a definate snow potential. Memorable snow events are always marginal.

It's a bit acedemic at this stage it is too far out but thoose charts do have potential.

South of the M4 corridor is Southern Emgland as far as im concerned.

[MR EXTREMES]

If you didn't look at the output you would think 10C plus was being progged. I suspect some of the moaning is related to the E Anglia/SE not being best favoured by what MAY develop.

now its getting silly.

the models clearly showing something intresting the ecm is the model that has the biggest dissapointment,

and im from southern england so i know we dip out of this one,

but this is my opion for the north wintry stuff will be about,

but as was mentioned earlier timing is a factor aswell,

But its just not cold enough there plenty of warm air aloft being sucked around the depression surface air is not cold enough for a major event unless on higher ground,

id even go as far as to say that ireland wont be as good either,

lets say it will be marginal if this set of outputs from the ecm happens and thats a BIG IF.

But the gfs is a much better output for alot with colder air and possibility of snow pretty far south.

So praying to the weather gods for another eastward shift from the gfs and for the gfs to be the right model will help alot.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m6.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m7.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif

I love the GFS 12Z ensemble mean charts staying cold throughout with severe frosts at night and excellent potential for some snow showers almost anywhere almost all next week and beyond

[nick sussex]

Some good and bad points from this evenings model output, generally theres been an improvement especially from the ECM, its still not where we'd want to be but a step in the right direction, the GFS looks a bit better, the UKMO has quite a weak low moving south, theres more chance of the Iberian low becoming the dominant feature and absorbing the low if thats the case.

Also we see greater heights to the north and the troughing isnt running ne/sw into the Mid Atlantic,so overall although the problem remains with the low being too close to the UK theres a bit more uncertainty going forward, could the reverse zonal winds blow the whole pattern so far west we end up with a Scandi high, this could come about if we can get the low far enough south, shortwaves will run into this and circulate around it, eventually the trough will weaken with pressure rises to the north and north east.

It's a longshot but the ECM isn't too far away from this.

[LomondSnowstorm]

If you didn't look at the output you would think 10C plus was being progged. I suspect some of the moaning is related to the E Anglia/SE not being best favoured by what MAY develop.

Agreed. At what point did progged uppers of around -5 to -7 for around half of Britain (at least) with potentially a lot of precipitation around become a 'mountain snow in the far north' event? A lot of bias regarding some peoples' own area and what setup favours them. The models continue to show cold and at least some snowfall at lower levels, whether that is confined to the northern half of Scotland or reaches Maidstone is yet to be decided.

LS

[Geordiesnow]

If you didn't look at the output you would think 10C plus was being progged. I suspect some of the moaning is related to the E Anglia/SE not being best favoured by what MAY develop.

Come on IB! You can't really talk as you downplayed the potential of the easterly because you knew your location won't do all that well. Whilst the easterly could of been much better, some have seen snowfall today and some will get a bit more snowfall so it was not all that disappointing on a regional level at least! And for the record, i only saw a few light-moderate hail showers from this easterly today whilst in the last 2 days, i only saw rain/sleet/hail showers so my judgement is not altered in anyway at all.

I think some are downplaying(which is imo is a good thing as it lowers expectations in this thread thus less bickering if things go wrong) the potential in the models because it is marginal and the models have mostly hinted that the bulk of the cold air heading too far west into the Atlantic. However some of this evenings outputs have suggested that we may see the cold air being closer to our shores but still not enough to get the excitment levels going. I think the current output has got alot of potential but the easterly had way more potential for snow hence why this thread was full of excitement then huge disappointment afterwards.

[damianslaw]

UKMO is a good chart for Sunday showing no fewer than 5 fronts/troughs ready to merge and pounce on the country, however, thicknesses won't be conducive for frontal snowfall initially, but soon enough they will be as we begin to pull in the colder uppers behind the main polar front.

It won't be until Friday before we have a good idea of where this low pressure is likely to track, I'm ignoring the models at the moment on this one, there is alot of time still ahead for things to change. It would be very unusual to see the low do what the ECM and UKMO is showing, the betting man would be more with the GFS with the low tracking further east, in any case a more south westerly moving low pressure would I still think give some widespread snow especially in northern and western parts, the jet looks like staying very southerly next week and with those very strong heights to the NW, there is good chance of a secondary low developing from the NE..

Its a potentially very cold and very snowy outlook indeed, not often we see a low pressure spilling down over us from a cold northerly source.

[MR EXTREMES]

Some good and bad points from this evenings model output, generally theres been an improvement especially from the ECM, its still not where we'd want to be but a step in the right direction, the GFS looks a bit better, the UKMO has quite a weak low moving south, theres more chance of the Iberian low becoming the dominant feature and absorbing the low if thats the case.

Also we see greater heights to the north and the troughing isnt running ne/sw into the Mid Atlantic,so overall although the problem remains with the low being too close to the UK theres a bit more uncertainty going forward, could the reverse zonal winds blow the whole pattern so far west we end up with a Scandi high, this could come about if we can get the low far enough south, shortwaves will run into this and circulate around it, eventually the trough will weaken with pressure rises to the north and north east.

It's a longshot but the ECM isn't too far away from this.

240h scandi pressure build long wayout but not impossible,

after all this has been a winter dominated with blocking with greenland and scandi being the most favoured areas for blocking.

[MKN]

I don't know whether people are ignoring clear potential that is showing up on the ECM consistently.

Those in Southern England might think a Southerly not so good but the 850 temps tell a different story at 144hrs and 168hrs. Yes, it is not good for Southern England toward the coast but think M4 corridor northward and a definate snow potential. Memorable snow events are always marginal.

It's a bit acedemic at this stage it is too far out but thoose charts do have potential.

I have to agree with that statement, it does seem that in the marginal setups the precip generally tends to be heavier, so for the lucky ones that get snow could see a decent event. Everything is to far away yet imo though, thursday/friday the models should all be roughly be in agreement you would have thought. if we have any detail worth pinning down it can start then

[Secret Society]

well at least the so called even larger teapot has come to a crashing end..

agree the situation is like early jan , potential for a whiteout again early next week